Formula One rolls into Singapore ahead of its accidental break with more questions than answers in 2024.
Marina Bay’s bright lights proved a small ray of hope in 2023 during the most dominant season ever seen, but 2024’s edition could be even more engaging than Carlos Sainz’s interloping win last year.
For the first time since 2021 at least one of the championships is not a safe prediction, with McLaren taking the lead of the Constructors’ standings for the first time since a fortuitous double podium at the 2014 Australian Grand Prix, after Oscar Piastri’s win and Lando Norris’ recovery to fourth at last week’s Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
Red Bull and Max Verstappen have been there to be shot at since May, and McLaren have time and again proven the sharpest of shooters since June, when Norris emerged as the closest driver to being a challenge to three-time World Champion.
Verstappen and Red Bull haven’t won since that month’s Spanish Grand Prix, something that would have been considered impossible as recently as April as the Dutchman breezed his way through F1’s opening rounds with six wins in seven races.
How times change.
Verstappen still has a lead to defend as F1 2024 approaches its final innings, but even a man as near to bulletproof as he has been in F1’s ground effect era is on something of a sticky wicket despite having a 59-point lead.
As recently as the British Grand Prix five races ago, that lead was 84 points, with Verstappen currently on a run of one podium in seven races.
This, therefore, is not a great time to arrive at the circuit they struggled on most last season. Indeed it was the only race Red Bull failed to win in 2023, but failure to avenge that defeat in 2024 would not generate any surprise given their struggles over high kerbs and a bumpy track surface.
McLaren clearly have the fastest car across a wide variety of circuits and are more than just the fast corner specialists they were a year ago and while Sergio Perez in the second Red Bull has improved since the summer break he still has yet to show that he can back Verstappen up in the same way that Oscar Piastri has been asked to back Norris up by McLaren.
Australia’s answer to Kimi Raikkonen’s “Iceman” persona has shown he has everything it takes to be an outright number 1, and has been the most prolific scorer in the last seven races.
Victory last time out in Baku, where he held off a charging Charles Leclerc after executing a brilliant move on the Monegasque driver, only underlines those credentials.
Piastri has said that he will follow team orders where necessary, but McLaren’s eyes on the Constructors prize first and foremost he will not be expected to sacrifice himself needlessly.
Red Bull need be wary of not just McLaren.
While the Papaya outfit are the strongest outfit, boosted by the FIA declaring their “mini DRS” rear wing legal after some minor controversy post-Baku, Ferrari and Mercedes can at the very least get in the way of the current World Champions.
Leclerc drove an almost faultless weekend in Baku last week, with Sainz also on course for a podium before his controversial race ending clash with Perez on the penultimate put both drivers into the wall.
Sainz’s win last year required expert management and Ferrari have in the past showed real strength at Marina Bay, while Lewis Hamilton’s 2018 pole lap for Mercedes is the stuff of legend.
The Silver Arrows have themselves been a little confused on car development in recent races following a summer renaissance, but George Russell was ahead of Verstappen on merit en route to a fortunate third place in Baku.
A “significant” Red Bull upgrade package is expected for the US Grand Prix at COTA in a month’s time.
This weekend will more than likely tell us exactly how much work they have to do to retain both Championships in 2024.