The MotoGP circus rumbles into the heart of the Spanish desert this weekend, as the championship battle resumes at the breathtaking Motorland Aragon circuit.
Marc Marquez (Repsol Honda) arrives at his home round with a 67-point lead at the top of the standings, and perhaps with one hand already on the world championship crown already. The Spaniard has been formally recognised this week by the Motorland circuit, having had the sweeping left-hand turn 10 named after him. Form at this circuit is good for the four-time premier class champion, having claimed three victories here in 2013, 2016 and 2017.
That said, Marquez has not taken victory since the German Grand Prix back in July. Failure to win this weekend, would see him equal his longest winless streak in MotoGP (4 races Malaysia, Valencia (both 2017), Qatar and Argentina (both 2018). Whilst this is still a record which most mortals will dream they had, at this stage of the season – and with the world championship at stake – this is the sort of thing that could seriously test his mental resolve.
This weekend’s grand prix presents Ducati with its ultimate ‘litmus test’. The Desmosedici-GP18 is a missile in a straight line, much like its predecessors. However this year, the Italian team has been very vocal about the performance gains they have made with the stability and cornering ability of their machine. Aragon-Motorland will provide a thorough examination for these claims, with the circuit boasting numerous ‘S’ bend switchbacks, and long medium to high speed corners. It is a test which Ducati riders must not only pass, but completely out-perform their rivals if they are to realistically keep up the fight for the championship.
Expecting to lead the way for the factory team this weekend is Andrea Dovizioso. The Italian reasserted his position as Marquez’ closest title contender, having taken victory last time out at Misano. Motorland Aragon has not traditionally been a happy hunting ground for Dovi, having not finished on the podium here since 2012 with the satellite Tech3 Yamaha team. Nevertheless, he is confident that he will be able to continue his championship resurgence this weekend having spoken yesterday in the press conference that: “The bike is fine, it is now about setting a good rhythm”.
Andrea Dovizioso last featured on the podium at Aragon in 2012, for the Tech3 Yamaha team (above).
Behind the main battle for the championship, there is the increasingly thrilling on-track scrap for the best of the independent riders. Cal Crutchlow (LCR Honda Castrol) currently leads the way on 119 points, after a strong ride in Misano saw him finish on the podium. Johann Zarco (Monster Tech3 Yamaha) and Danilo Petrucci (Alma Pramac Ducati) are both hot on his heels with 110 points each. Petrucci, buoyed by increasing support from the Ducati factory (in preparation for his arrival at the factory team in November), believes this weekend he will have the pace to push the frontrunners all the way: “We have same support as they (Dovizoso and Lorenzo) do. For sure we will have pace to fight for podium. Maybe more.”
For the Movistar Yamaha factory team however, this weekend is expected to be another painful experience. Although considerable progress has been made with the electronics since the summer break, the Aragon circuit relentlessly targets Yamaha’s other main deficiency – engine power. With three long straights around the course, a bike which is sluggish under acceleration will be severely exposed against the competition.
Valentino Rossi and Maverick Vinales know this, and as such will be focusing the M1 to perform as smoothly and efficiently as possible through the track’s 17 corners in order to recover as much lap time as possible. Such is the way the season has unfolded for the team, just having one bike in the top five here will be considered a good result.
Finally, there is a newcomer to the championship this weekend. Jordi Torres will be make his MotoGP debut for the Reale Avintia-Racing Ducati team, standing in for the still injured Tito Rabat. Torres will be most familiar to followers of World Superbikes, with the Spaniard riding in the series for MV Agusta. He is no stranger to the grand prix paddock, having ridden for multiple seasons in the old 125cc category and the Moto2 class. In the latter he had considerable success, being a multiple podium finisher and a race winner back in 2014.
Andrea Dovizioso wins the San Marino Grand Prix. Image courtesy of Ducati
The MotoGP San Marino Rimini Riviera Grand Prix was set to get underway in blazing sunshine after a changeable weekend in regards to the weather, and after the washout that was the British Grand Prix race day two weeks previous, the glorious Italian sun was more than welcome (for most).
Jorge Lorenzo (Ducati) was starting from pole position for the second time this season, and looked strong heading into the 27-lap race (shortened by one lap compared to 2017). Meanwhile, Andrea Dovizioso (Ducati), Marc Marquez (Repsol Honda) and the two factory Movistar Yamaha riders – Valentino Rossi and Maverick Vinales – looked as though they could contend for the podium.
Sure enough, Lorenzo made the holeshot. Misano is in many ways the birthplace of Jorge Lorenzo’s lights-to-flag victories, after he made one of his best ever back in 2013, igniting that stunning championship fightback which led to the title being contested all the way down to the final race in Valencia.
Marquez also made a good start, moving up from fifth on the grid to be third after the opening corners with Jack Miller (Alma-Pramac Ducati) ahead of Dovizioso. Dovi dealt with Marquez almost immediately, on the first approach to turn eight, and then made quick work of Miller to take second place. Marquez also quickly dealt with the Australian, knowing he couldn’t afford to let his rivals escape if he wanted to have a chance at victory.
Dovizioso then studied Lorenzo, with a safe distance to Marquez behind, for the next four laps, finally making his move for the lead in turn eight on lap six, and this move would go without reply. A look at the lap time analysis from the race and you can see the control that Dovizioso had over the race. He passed Lorenzo on lap six, setting the race lap record (1’33.224) in the process. It was a masterfully controlled race from Dovizioso, managing the time gap to his pursuers. Although Lorenzo began to close the gap down late in the race, the Italian was not flustered and upped his pace to negate any serious inroads. Crucially, this result has elevated him back into contention for the championship.
Andrea Dovizioso celebrates winning the San Marino Grand Prix. Image courtesy of Ducati
In total contrast to Dovizioso, championship leader Marquez was over the limit keeping up with even Lorenzo, let alone the eventual race winner. As has been commonplace throughout the season, the Spaniard elected to run the hard front tyre because the medium was too soft for the Honda riders. However, the left side of the hard front was not giving enough grip, making a race distance difficult to manage. However, if anyone is capable of riding over the limit for forty minutes, it is Marquez. Even though he could not pass Lorenzo outright, he was able to pressure his future teammate into a couple of mistakes.
The first error of Lorenzo came in turn fourteen on lap fourteen, and allowed Marquez through for second place. A decent fight between the pair then erupted, with Lorenzo making several attempts to pass Marquez, especially in turn eight. Finally, the Ducati rider made it stick, but whilst the pair were trying to close back down on Dovizioso, he pushed too hard in turn eight and folded the front. He wasn’t off line, he was simply in too hot, and trailing too much front brake. Lorenzo blamed the medium front tyre for his crash – the same compound which Dovizioso chose – and described it as “rock-like” after the race. Lorenzo would have preferred to use the soft front tyre, just like Marquez would have like to have used the medium, but quite simply the track temperature was too high, they made the only choice they could; for Marquez it cost him the win, for Lorenzo could well have cost him his hopes of being the 2018 world champion.
Lorenzo’s crash let Marquez ease off, knowing he had a safe second place. It also allowed Cal Crutchlow onto the podium for the second time this season, as he gave LCR Honda a trophy in their home race. It was another solid ride from the Briton. Knowing he did not have the pace to challenge for the lead, he consolidated fourth position and ensured he profited from Lorenzo’s misfortune. Crutchlow’s first podium at Misano, continuing his highly impressive season.
Alex Rins (Team Suzuki Ecstar) was first home of the chasing pack in P4. Early on in the race, the Spaniard was told to go to “Mapping 2”, and the lap after he lost his position to Crutchlow. Exactly what this setting is (a traction control setting, engine mapping, engine brake etc.) remains unclear, but Crutchlow commented on his surprise at the ease with which he was able to pass. It is possible that Rins let Crutchlow go, knowing he couldn’t match the Honda rider’s pace, and chose to ride the fastest race he could, with minimal interference. Whatever the tactics were, they worked extremely well, as he took his fourth top five finish of the season and heavily out-performed his out-going teammate, Andrea Iannone, finishing seven seconds ahead of the Italian.
Alex Rins behind Cal Crutchlow. Image courtesy of Hondanews.eu
1.4 seconds back of Rins was the first Yamaha, the factory bike of Maverick Vinales, who was 16.016 seconds from the leader after the 27 laps. After Saturday, things looked good for Yamaha, and especially Vinales. They had a strong test in Misano three weeks before the GP, and after a strong Silverstone weekend were hopeful of a good result in San Marino. However, from Saturday to Sunday, something changed for the M1, as both of the Movistar bikes went from being podium contenders to being slumped in the pack. Both Vinales and Rossi – who finished seventh, a further three seconds behind Vinales – were at a loss to explain the loss of pace. The fact that Yamaha do not know what the problem is, why they always seem to struggle more on a Sunday – even with minimal changes in track temperature – is alarming. They are now twenty-two races without a win, and as Rossi pointed out after the race, the Yamaha is likely to struggle more at Aragon next time out.
Sandwiched between the two Yamaha riders was Dani Pedrosa. The retiring Spaniard had seemed to find something over the course of this weekend, posting some decent results, especially in morning warm up. But his usual problems of corner speed and acceleration remained in the race. Spending the race around a pair of M1s is perhaps not the best way to allay fears of corner speed issues, but to feel like you’re missing out on acceleration when you are racing against a motorcycle which – according to its riders – has acceleration as its weakest point is rather alarming. There was positive news for Pedrosa this weekend, though, as he was confirmed to be riding the KTM from next year as a test rider.
Nearly three seconds back of Rossi was Andrea Iannone (Team Suzuki Ecstar), who appeared in Q1 for the first time in 2018 on Saturday, and also missed Q2. His race didn’t go much better, as he was unable to get the speed nor the life out of the soft rear tyre that Rins did on the sister Suzuki. A home weekend to forget for The Maniac.
Alvaro Bautista took yet another top ten in ninth place, further affirming the notion that what is MotoGP’s loss at the end of 2018 is most certainly WorldSBK’s gain.
The top ten was rounded out by Johann Zarco, who suffered similarly to the factory Yamaha riders on Sunday, being unable to get out of corners, nor hold onto the tyre.
Danilo Petrucci’s race was done before it started. His pace was nothing special throughout the weekend, but his race day got worse when mechanical problems on the grid forced him to fall behind he safety car on the warm up lap, and thus he had to start from last. He made a decent race, though, and climbed to eleventh where he finished. But his day became even worse when he got back to the garage and discovered his pushbike had been stolen. He and the team will be praying that the next round at Aragon is less stressful.
Bradley Smith took sixteenth place, but even still it was a positive weekend for the Brit, who announced he will be Aprilia’s test rider next year, in a deal that includes the potential for five wildcard rides throughout the season. On the subject of Aprilia. It was another difficult weekend for Scott Redding, on his RS-GP18. He said after the race that he was missing the line by “5 or 8 metres” due to the front tyre collapsing whilst under braking.
It is now or never for Marc Maquez’ championship rivals, as MotoGP resumes this weekend at the spectacular Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli.
Misano seldom produces a dull race. Indeed, since the circuit returned to the MotoGP calendar in 2007, it has played host to numerous classic moments such as: The arrival of Marco Simoncelli as a serious premier class contender in 2010. Pedrosa practically shoving Marquez out of his way en route to victory in 2016. Heartbreak for Danilo Petrucci (Pramac Ducati) as he came so near to a famous victory last season in horrendous conditions.
This year will be no exception, as the first serious hammer blows in this year’s championship will be played out on Sunday to the best part of 100,000 spectators. There may well also be an element of desperation from the title protagonists, following the washout at Silverstone a fortnight ago.
The abandonment of the British Grand Prix has made life this season considerably easier for Marquez and the Repsol Honda team. No race being run means that a potential 25 points for his closest rivals were removed from the table. Where there had been a maximum of 200 points, now there is only 175 remaining this season. Having already established a lead of 59 points at the top of the standings, the road to becoming a 5 time premier class champion (and match the achievements of the great Mick Doohan) is now even more clear.
Firm favourite Marquez is, but to say he has got the championship effectively won already would be grossly inaccurate. Grand Prix racing, more than any other sport, has a habit of biting back. With this in mind, the factory Ducati team will be pushing hard to claw back the deficit. With Jorge Lorenzo and Andrea Dovizioso now a seemingly constant presence both on the front row and on the podium each week, one slip up from Marquez and the championship is blown wide open for the flyaway races.
Hunting in pairs: Can Lorenzo and Dovizioso close down Marquez’ lead? / AFP PHOTO / JOSE JORDAN
However, it is not only Ducati who are still in the championship fight this season. Despite not having taken a race victory since the Dutch TT in 2017, Valentino Rossi (Movistar Yamaha) is the closest challenger in the standings to Marquez with 142 points. Incredible testament to the sheer consistency of the 38-year old Italian. The 9 times world champion has defied the bike, despite criticism of the machine from his teammate Maverick Vinales, the crew chiefs, journalists and just about everyone close to the team. Whilst Vinales has looked despondent with the bike at times this season – in fairness, most riders would be the same – Rossi has worked tirelessly. Sacrificing single lap performance for the sake of getting the setup right for the races. He has always done this, but in 2018 has had to take it to the extreme – being a regular in Q1.
Movistar Yamaha appear to have made a step forward with the M1, following two private tests last month at Misano and Aragon. Understanding the Magnetti Marelli ECU has been a constant thorn in the side for the Japanese manufacturer. Despite having a bike which is regarded as the most mechanically sound machine to race, they have struggled to synchronise the new electronics, which has compromised the performance of the bikes at every turn – both literally and metaphorically. At Rossi’s true home round, the team will be desperate more than ever for a return to winning ways.
Pol Espargaro is set to return for the Red Bull KTM team this weekend. The Spanish rider was forced to sit out the Austrian and British rounds after sustaining multiple injuries – including a fracture of his collarbone – at the Czech Grand Prix, back in August.
Tito Rabat (Reale Avintia Ducati) will miss this weekend as he continues his recovery following a horror crash at Silverstone, which left him with multiple fractures to his right leg. Replacing him this weekend, and making his MotoGP debut, is Christophe Ponsson. The French rider has been a regular front runner this season in the CEV Superbike Championship (which supports the Moto3 and Moto2 junior series).
The San Marino grand prix is also the final chance this year for the Gresini Aprilia to put on a good show in front of their home crowd. To say this season has been a struggle, would be a serious understatement. Aleix Espargaro has at least provided brief moments of cheer for the team, with some serious single lap pace regularly demonstrated during qualifying. With upgrades promised to both Espargaro and teammate Scott Redding for this weekend, both bikes finishing the race in the points would be a welcome sight indeed.
Sunday in Silverstone was something of an unprecedented situation for MotoGP, at least since the word “MotoGP” became a reality. Not since Misano 1990 had every single rider in every single class walked away with precisely the same points with which they entered the weekend; and not since Austria 1980 had every World Championship race been cancelled in a motorcycle Grand Prix weekend. That weekend was due to snow. In fact,this weekend we saw the first cancelled races since Indianapolis 2008, when the 250 GP was cancelled because of a hurricane.
The situation in Silverstone was similar in at least one way to all of these events. Indianapolis 2008 was cancelled because of impending rain, and the races in Silverstone were rescheduled in an attempt to avoid the worst of the day’s precipitation. In addition Austria ’80 saw all races cancelled, and Misano 1990 was cancelled due to rain. But none of these perhaps had the controversy behind them as this weekend’s British Grand Prix did (well, maybe Misano ’90, but in a different way). All of the previous situations were brought about purely because weather conditions prevented racing: you can’t race in the snow, you can’t race in a hurricane and you can’t race in monsoon-like rain, but Silverstone 2018 was such a disaster because of the track surface.
A wet Silverstone tarmac. Conditions that lead to the MotoGP British GP being cancelled. Image courtesy of Yamaha Motor Racing
So, what made Silverstone such a disaster this year? Well, the problem was identified in July, at Formula One’s British Grand Prix. Atypically, it was not F1’s fault, maybe they made it worse, but not significantly – the problem was already there. After the first practice of the F1 weekend back in July, drivers were almost unanimous in opining that the new Silverstone circuit was more bumpy than before, Lewis Hamilton even spoke to Cal Crutchlow about the situation, saying that Silverstone was “the bumpiest he had ever driven”. This sparked worry for MotoGP.
The circuit had resurfaced its entire 3.6 mile track over the winter with the precise goals of improving grip consistency (previously there had been four different surfaces around the track) and erasing bumps. The second point there was of most immediate concern for the riders; Silverstone was not in a state akin to Barcelona or Jerez in terms of grip, but the bumps made riding there quite dangerous, because bumps make everything very unpredictable and difficult to manage, and when in a group it can be hard to pick out where the bumps are, which makes it easy to crash. You can say “the riders should be able to ride through them, they are the best in the world,” but if you cannot see where the danger is, how are you supposed to avoid it? That is the danger of bumps, and in Silverstone they were particularly bad.
The new surface aimed to rectify that, and as far as Franco Uncini (the MotoGP Safety Officer – he homologates the circuits) was concerned, in February it was fine, and it was in March, too. Cal Crutchlow concurred with the 1982 500cc World Champion when he rode a Honda RC213V-S there for a media day, with the opinion that the surface was generally fine, bar a couple of spots that were more bumpy. Uncini had made the same deductions before Crutchlow, which as encouraging because there was agreement. The circuit was not 100% perfect, but it was damn close.
Rubber Ducks at the 2018 MotoGP British GP. Silverstone 2018. Image courtesy of Suzuki Racing
Then, however, something happened. Between March and July, when the F1 race was held, because when the car racers showed up, they came out with comments like Hamilton’s to Crutchlow. Something in that time period happened to make the track more bumpy, more so even than it was before the new surface was laid. There are some possibilities, like the unusually hot summer Britain has enjoyed, but realistically it is difficult to know precisely what made the track deteriorate so much with so little top-level track action.
These bumps became a problem from the beginning of the weekend – even in the dry. Valentino Rossi said that you have to “not care” to negotiate the bumps, whereas Andrea Dovizioso opined that riding around the bumps was the best way. Ultimately, the bike determined the strategy – the Yamaha could handle the bumps well, whereas the likes of the Honda and Ducati couldn’t deal with them so efficiently – especially the Honda.
But that didn’t matter come Saturday afternoon and FP4. When the rain came down at the end of the session, it became a disaster between turn seven, Stowe, and turn ten, Club. In these areas, especially in turns seven and eight – particularly the braking areas for these corners – it was impossible to ride. The problem was that the water was pooling in the bumps, so aquaplaning became both inevitable and extreme. In turn seven at least seven riders ran off track or crashed in the space of one minute or so. Alex Rins was first in, and then tried to direct traffic from the gravel trap to minimise risk for the other riders. Jorge Lorenzo, Aleix Espargaro and Marc Marquez all also ran on, and Tito Rabat crashed. Franco Morbidelli also fell a few seconds after Tito, and when the Spaniard stood up, he was hit by Morbidelli’s 160kg bike, travelling at 100+mph. The result was a broken fibula, tibia and femur for the 2014 Moto2 World Champion. Thankfully, he had a successful operation on Saturday night and on Sunday took his first steps since the accident.
The accident for Tito was a direct result of the weather, as neither he, nor any of the other riders who went into the gravel at turn seven in that period, was able to stop the bike. Bradley Smith said he started braking “500 metres before the corner” and still couldn’t stop the bike, because it just aquaplaned. When the bike aquaplanes, the tyre is not touching the asphalt, of course, so you cannot slow down. Rins said that the water in that section was deep enough to submerge a whole finger. You can have the best tyres in the world, but if you have 10cm of water, it is impossible to control.
Andrea Iannone riding through the rain and puddles on the track. Image courtesy of Suzuki Racing
Following this, and considering the incoming day-long deluge facing the whole of the UK for Sunday, Race Direction decided, together with the teams and the riders, that rescheduling the races was the best plan for Sunday. MotoGP was moved to 11:30 am, and Moto3 and 2 would follow the premier class race.
This didn’t work. Already in Moto3 warm up on Sunday morning, the rain had arrived, and by the end of the Moto2 warm up, the track had become shiny, as the standing water was starting to gather.
11:30 arrived, and things were terrible. Alvaro Bautista ran into the gravel at turn eight because he was trying to warm his carbon brakes, and it just locked. Then, Maverick Vinales was seen coming out of pit lane, spinning the rear tyre immediately. Alex Rins reckoned that he was spinning the tyre with 15% throttle in third gear on his way to the grid for the initial start time. They were on the limit just for the sighting lap, and so it was no surprise that the start was delayed – just to ride a MotoGP bike in those conditions would have been nearly impossible, let alone race one.
Maverick Viñales on the aborted MotoGP Grid at the British GP. Image courtesy of Yamaha Motor Racing
From there, there were many inspections, and many meetings, before at 4pm the Safety Commission decided that the races should be cancelled, because the track would not be in a good enough order to race whilst there was still enough light to race.
There had been the option to race earlier that was presented to the teams, but they needed warm up (these are 270+hp motorcycles, you need to prepare) and they, as well as the circuit, needed time to prepare the track after the warm up. There are procedures which need to be done for safety in a race meeting, and as a result it was not possible to run any earlier than 11:30.
Then there was the possibility to race on Monday – after all, it’s August bank holiday, everyone is free, right? Wrong. MotoGP relies on a vast number of temporary services, such as security guards, and temporary, rented equipment, such as generators, that have been rented for Thursday through Sunday, not through Monday. On top of that, the people who work in the paddock who pay to get there would have to cancel and re-book flights should they be necessary, which is potentially beyond their realistic means – this includes freelance journalists, photographers and such like. Additionally, and arguably more importantly, the teams cannot afford to stay one more day, especially the private teams who are tight on budget as it is, and furthermore the TV companies do not have the time slots available to them to be able to air races on Monday. It happened in Qatar in 2009, but it happened in Qatar in 2009 because the Losail International Circuit could afford to make it happen, Silverstone couldn’t.
But how did we arrive in this situation in the first place. It has already been explained that the track was resurfaced over the winter, and that it initially was good, and later became not-so-good with the bumps. But the bumps were just one part of the problem.
With a new surface there is one guarantee: for the first year or two, the porousness of the surface will be poor. Think Sepang’s new surface, which takes basically half a day to dry out from just a small shower. It happened to F1 in Korea back in 2010 – the surface had been down for a matter of weeks, so a downpour before the race halted proceedings by an hour and more. The issue was more extreme, though, this weekend in Silverstone, because instead of having poor porousness, it had none. A light shower would be okay, as we saw in Moto2 FP2, that was manageable for the riders; but a deluge like we saw on Saturday, or the prolonged downpour of Sunday was too much for the track to drain, and even drainage ditches and cuts in the track could not help the situation. After so long, the water just started to build up, until you basically ended up with something resembling a lake – and this was after two hours.
The day-long drenching the new Silverstone surface took today was well beyond its drainage capabilities, and mixed with the pooling in the bumps, as well as the polished parts of the track (from cars bottoming out at the end of straights when under maximum loading, causing the abrasiveness of the stones in the asphalt to disappear) it became an impossible situation for the riders, and an equally hard one to call for the Race Direction.
Alex Rins, like the fans waiting for information from MotoGP Racing Control. The 2018 British GP. Iage courtesy of Suzuki Racing
It is at this point that it is important to point out that in 2011 there was an almost identical situation, with rain all day, and all three races went ahead, and just last year in BSB there was a race in biblical conditions, but everyone went out, it was deemed safe enough to ride, although there were only seven finishers. Today was normal rain, nothing spectacular, just normal rain, over a long period of time, which is common in Britain, and it was deemed unsafe.
So, was it Race Direction’s bad decision, did they listen too much to the riders? Well, no. Firstly, it is my opinion that the decision to continue the race last year in British Superbike when so many riders were crashing was a bad one, because it was clearly unsafe (although in the same moment, BSB goes to tracks like Cadwell Park and Oulton Park, which are dangerous tracks, so the standard is maybe lower). Secondly, in 2011 the surface could deal with the water, so aquaplaning was less.
The fact that the new surface could not deal with the water on Saturday, or Sunday, shows that the surface was the issue, and therefore two groups of people are at fault. One is Aggregate UK, who provided and laid the surface over the winter; a surface which was produced and designed in the UK, yet could not absorb any water whatsoever. Second, you have to put some blame at the door of Silverstone, because they employed the services of Aggregate UK. Ultimately, Aggregate UK did a terrible job, they laid a surface which has no drainage and is in fact worse than the one they replaced, and Silverstone have a right to feel cheated by them, as do the fans, teams, riders and the Championship.
In a press conference after the decision to cancel the races, Franco Uncini said that there have been demands for a new surface to be laid at Silverstone for next year, and before that there will be an investigation into why exactly the circuit could not absorb any water. How exactly Silverstone manages to afford another full resurfacing job just a few months after the last one remains to be seen, and it remains to be seen if it is even possible. Once the new surface has been laid, there are intentions to test the track in the wet although there have been admissions from Mike Webb (Race Director) that after the experience of artificially wetting the Losail track earlier this year, it is difficult to see how that could happen.
Ultimately, it was a combination poor asphalt being poorly laid, a remarkable British summer which left the track unprepared for the wet (Saturday and Sunday were probably the worst two days this new surface has seen, weather-wise) and a day with no break in the weather which conspired to create this British MotoGP disaster, and at the moment it is unsure how it can move on from this.
One thing, though, is for sure. Silverstone want to continue to host the British Motorcycle Grand Prix, and MotoGP are keen to continue to have a British Grand Prix. Over the next months we should see whether the British Grand Prix will continue in the near future, and whether it will continue at Silverstone.
The Austrian Grand Prix weekend was a complete disaster for Yamaha, there is no other word. Both on the track and off it, Yamaha’s weekend at the last Grand Prix was nothing short of embarrassing. Hampered by a mechanical in the only dry free practice, FP1, Valentino Rossi failed to make Q2 directly from free practice, and could only manage fourteenth on the grid, complaining that the soft tyre was too soft for the Yamaha. Meanwhile, Maverick Vinales was only eleventh on the grid, suffering with sensor problems. This Saturday slump led the MotoGP project leader, Kouji Tsuya, to apologise to both the manufacturer’s factory riders for the poor performance of the bike, promising improvements are on the way in two upcoming tests.
One of those tests – in Misano – has already been and gone. We will only find out whether there was any progress on Friday, but for the sake of the manufacturer, you would hope that there have been some positive findings.
So, we know the situation, some have described this as “rock bottom” for Yamaha. They sit second in the riders championship with Valentino Rossi, third in the manufacturers’ standings, 53 points from the Honda at the top; and third in the teams’ championship with twelve points between the Movistar team and the Repsol Honda outfit. The numbers don’t seem so bad, and that is because the M1, despite many contrary opinions, has improved in some areas this year, and this has allowed it to be strong in some circuits. However, the neglection of the core issue with the bike means that in the places where the M1 was weak last year, it is weaker this year, because everyone else has moved on. So, whilst the balance of the bike has improved compared to last year, and the M1 is back to being the smooth, high-corner-speed bike we know it as, the electronics have not progressed – or not progressed enough – which in this era of MotoGP is the most critical part.
Rossi on the 2018 YZR-M1. Image courtesy of Yamaha Motor Racing
As Rossi mentioned before Austria, the Red Bull Ring is the M1’s worst circuit, the slow speed corners followed by long straights is the worst combination for it, because it can’t use its corner speed, and its acceleration issues are emphasised. So it is likely that in the coming weekends the M1 will seem in a good way again, but that won’t mean that the issues are solved, just that they are masked by the circuit layout.
But where did this start? We know the situation Yamaha are in at the moment – their worst moment since 1998 – but where did this path start? Why are they in this hole?
It’s possible to trace the root of their issues back to 2015. The M1 was the best bike in 2015, no doubt about it. The bike was the best out of the box in Qatar for the first race, and the developments Yamaha brought to the bike throughout the year almost always worked. But there was one issue, a familiar one: rear tyre wear. Yamaha were able to get around this three years ago because they had the luxury of factory electronics, designed specifically for the M1, and understood perfectly by the engineers in Iwata.
With the introduction of the universal, spec ECU in 2016, though, Yamaha became complacent. They heard “controlled electronics” and took that as gospel, putting less effort than their competitors – notably Honda and Ducati – into developing and understanding the Magneti Marelli software. Whilst their two biggest rivals went out and poached engineers from Marelli themselves, and the likes of Suzuki sent their own engineers to Italy to learn the functions of the controlled software, Yamaha didn’t act, and worked on the new system themselves, with no external assistance.
Instead of focusing on electronics, Yamaha looked at the chassis, the motor and the aerodynamics of the M1. The first item they introduced to combat the tyre wear issues was a new chassis, at the post-race Valencia test at the end of 2015. It didn’t work, neither Jorge Lorenzo nor Valentino Rossi liked the update, which had the fuel tank mounted further back in the bike, with the fuel going into the bike in the tail section, behind the seat. So, the 2016 chassis was essentially the 2015 chassis, with some slightly bigger wings on the front. However, the 2015 chassis was by far the best on the grid in 2015, meaning that in the first half of 2016, the Yamaha was still the best machine out there, and was only missing the championship lead through reliability (Rossi’s blow up in the Mugello race – and Lorenzo’s in warm up the same day – were supposedly due to a mapping problem on the electronics which allowed the bike to over-rev over the crest, with disastrous consequences) and rider error.
From the halfway point of the 2016 season, though, when Honda and Ducati started to see the fruits of their labour with regards to the electronics, Yamaha started to fall back, unable to make the tyre last the distance. The first time it really became apparent was in Aragon, where Rossi led the early stages, but was hunted down by Marquez with ease once the tyres started to drop slightly. This set the tone for the rest of the season, with Yamaha not winning until Valencia of that year, and even then Lorenzo was closed down hand over fist by Marc Marquez in the final laps of the race.
Maverick Vinales. Image courtesy of Yamaha Motor Racing
The degradation issues with the rear that the M1 was suffering with in the second half of 2016 prompted Yamaha to go full revolution – in MotoGP terms – with the 2017 bike. Initially, it looked like they had got it right. Rossi was struggling a lot through free practices, but was able to find something for Sunday, whilst Vinales looked almost unbeatable in the first portion of the season – only denied a sweep of the first three races by a crash in Texas, and even that handed Rossi the championship lead. Everything looked good for Yamaha as the championship entered the European season, but it was in Jerez, where Vinales finished sixth and Rossi only tenth, that it started to decline for the Movistar team. Another poor result in Barcelona (Rossi 8th, Vinales 10th) showed the extent of Yamaha’s misdirection, especially as Rossi had won in both Jerez and Barcelona the previous year, and there had been no changes to either circuits.
New chassis’ arrived for the pair to test in the post-race test in Montmelo 2017, supposedly the 2017 chassis with some 2016 bits (stiffness ratios, for example) and Rossi felt that one in particular was an improvement. Supposedly Vinales preferred the original 2017 design, but he was forced into using the one that Rossi had chosen, a decision which haunted Vinales’ mind for the rest of the season.
Rossi won the next race, and it seemed all was well once again, but wet weather nightmares, and poor dry pace regardless, in Sachsenring proved otherwise. Another string of poor results in the second half of 2017, and a terrible weekend in Valencia, sent the team to do what they had been avoiding for half a season, and they switched overnight to the 2016 chassis. No setup time meant that they had no pace in the race, and it was another disastrous result for the factory team, made no better by the fact that Johann Zarco on the Tech 3 Yamaha was fighting for the victory against Dani Pedrosa.
The post-race Valencia test in 2017 saw all manner of different combinations in both the factory Yamaha garage, and the Tech 3 pit, as they tried to find a direction for 2018. Ultimately, they reverted to the 2016 design for their base, but once more over the winter there was a lack of investment in the electronic side, and from the first tests of the 2018 preseason, it was clear that the M1 was still a way off being able to win a race.
Now, though, it is clear that the problem lies not only in the electronic side of the Yamaha, but in other areas too.
A new engine was introduced over the winter, liked by both riders and thus homologated. Furthermore, it is believed both Honda and Ducati has had continued development over the last months, whilst Yamaha has remained stagnant in this area.
The engine, though, is perhaps the most immediate issue. Fundamentally, Yamaha messed up with the design of this year’s engine, and the crankshaft is too light, meaning the engine is too aggressive. It is the same thing which caused Honda so many problems in 2015 and ’16, and the most critical problem Suzuki faced last year. The biggest problem for Yamaha is that they cannot change the engine until the winter, for now they have to make do with what they have, and what they have is not good enough.
On the organisational side, this could prove just as fatal as any mechanical or electronic issue with the M1. A full overhaul of the management and inner workings of the Iwata manufacturer could produce instability lasting for months and even years, putting them out of contention for titles for as long as that instability lasts. Without stability and progressive evolution inside the team, or the whole Yamaha MotoGP department, it becomes difficult to work correctly and make progress with the bike, because the new people have to fit together in the new system, and that takes time, especially when it is a reactionary move – and in this case, it would be most certainly reactionary on Yamaha’s part. That said, staying as they are resigns them to stagnation; to progress, they have to change the way they work, and just like with the engine, they have no choice.
A third issue appeared after Brno. A Ducati engineer explained that the key to the Michelin tyres is to use the drive grip, the centre of the tyre. They said that one of the reasons Yamaha are struggling at the moment, could be that they spend so much time on the side of the tyre. This is because the style of the Yamaha is to run a lot of corner speed, and to utilise the edge grip of the tyre. The problem is that this increases wheelspin, and thus tyre wear. This is especially worrying for Yamaha, because it means that they could face redesigning the entire motorcycle, completely changing their philosophy to comply with the demands of the Michelin.
Whilst this would be one of a number of things that stand between Yamaha and wining again, personally I hope this is not one that will be fleshed out. One of the biggest appeals of motorcycle racing is the diversity and variety, both in riding styles and design philosophies. If Yamaha were to go away from their traditional ‘corner speed’ bikes for the sake of tyres, it would be a shame, because it would essentially mean that to win, there is only one way, and that is not MotoGP, it is not MotoGP to me, anyway.
Neglecting the latest point, Yamaha still have a lot of work to do before they arrive at a Grand Prix in a state where they can win again. Starting with the engine, of which a 2019 spec should be in their final test day of 2018 in Aragon, after Silverstone, there are many aspects on which the engineers back in Japan have to work upon, and really it is doubtful that they will even be able to win consistently, if at all, next year. However, the (belated) announcement of a Yamaha European test team for next year shows they are on the right track, and are intent on solving their issues in the longer term.
For now, though; I tweeted on the day of the French Grand Prix that “If it (a Yamaha win) won’t happen today then it won’ t happen at all in 2018”, and right now that prediction seems fairly on the money.
“Ducati Land”. That was the tag Marc Marquez labelled the Red Bull Ring on Saturday, despite setting pole position in Q2 by 0.002 seconds over Andrea Dovizioso. There was no debate about his statement, the slow corners, followed by long straights that the Red Bull Ring is comprised of suits the Desmosedici perfectly.
In the same moment, the same characteristics of the Red Bull Ring lend themselves extremely well to Jorge Lorenzo, whose style is all geared to strong corner exit speed.
Whilst there was a miscommunication on Saturday in the #99 side of the Ducati garage, it would be solely down to his only two rivals – Marquez and Ducati teammate Andresa Dovizioso – to defeat the Majorcan over the 28-lap race distance.
But that is not to say that Lorenzo was the clear favourite; both Marquez and Dovizioso had looked at least as strong as the five times World Champion on the previous two days, and Marquez was the only rider in the field to have managed to get a long run in on all tyres.
Marc Marquez, Jorge Lorenzo and Andresa Dovizioso. Image courtesy of HondaProRacing
However, it made it no less surprising to see Marquez escape at the front in the beginning of the race. The reigning World Champion admitted after the race that his strategy was to bolt away at the start, to try to fight only one Ducati, as he had learned from Brno that fighting two factory Desmosedicis at the same time is nearly impossible, such is their strength in both acceleration and braking.
His strategy nearly worked. When Marquez passed Dovi in turn three on the first lap, he ran the Italian out wide, costing him two places. It let Lorenzo through, but Marquez at this stage was more worried about Dovi. Once Marquez had passed Lorenzo for the lead, he started to pull away, and Lorenzo looked to be both struggling and holding up his factory Ducati teammate.
But Dovizioso was unable to pass the number 99, which for a while looked okay, because the gap between Marquez and Lorenzo was decreasing. But in the same moment as Lorenzo passed Marquez for the lead, in turn one on lap nineteen, Dovizioso ran wide, lost one second, and was unable in the remaining ten laps to close the margin.
Jorge Lorenzo, Marc Marquez and Andresa Dovizioso. Image courtesy of Ducati
It was, then, between Lorenzo and Marquez. They swapped positions often, Marquez being very strong into turn three, and Lorenzo more so in turns one, eight and nine.
Eventually, the final lap arrived, with Marquez leading into it, but Lorenzo passing him into turn one. Marquez responded in turn three, but simultaneously lost both the front and the rear, which meant Lorenzo was able to carry the momentum around the outside, and out-drag the number 93 to turn four. The gap now was quite big, and over Lorenzo Marquez did not have the same advantage in the two left handers of turns six and seven that he had over Dovizioso last year. This, combined with Marquez’s mistake in turn three, was the deciding factor, because Marquez could not get close enough into either turn nine or ten to make a pass, and he could not deny Lorenzo victory.
Jorge learned his lesson from last year. In 2017, he went too hard at the start, trying to escape, but he used too much fuel, which meant that he had to run softer engine modes in the later laps, giving him nothing to fight with in the second half of the race. This year, he managed the fuel at the start, as well as the tyre (he went soft-soft), and this allowed him to attack more at the end, at no disadvantage to Marquez. Furthermore, Lorenzo proved once again that the soft, when managed correctly, can last better than a medium or a hard rear tyre, simply because it spins less, and so there is less excessive temperature build up in the tyre.
Perhaps, though, the most impressive thing about Lorenzo’s ride, was his aggression in the battle against Marquez. There were some tough moves going down in this battle, it was a proper scrap, one that you might expect Lorenzo to lose out in, in the past, but on this occasion, just like in Brno a week previous, Jorge had enough and more to be able to put up a fight against the best scrapper in the world, and he turned the Red Bull Ring from “Ducati Land” to “Lorenzo’s Land”. Again, we ask “what if?” What if Jorge Lorenzo had started the season in the form he has had since Mugello. What if Ducati had listened to him, and given him the fuel tank modifications sooner? What if Ducati re-signed him? Jorge Lorenzo has the potential to fight for this world title, but unfortunately all the work he has put in this year to work out the Ducati will be for nothing when he jumps on the Honda RC213V at Valencia in November, and starts all over again. But for now, he and the Desmosedici might just be the strongest package out there.
Marc Marquez, on the podium after coming 2nd at The RedBull Ring. Image courtesy of HondaProRacing
For Marquez, it was yet another disappointing defeat at the hand of a Ducati rider in the final lap. That said, he couldn’t do much about it. The Ducati gets out of the corner better than the Honda, it has more power in the straight than the Honda and it has better braking stability than the Honda. You can’t fight that. Marquez was over the limit trying to fight the Ducati of Lorenzo in this battle, and when that happens he normally wins. In fact, against any other bike, he wins 9/10 times. Even still, Marquez can be content with his effort in Austria, he beat one Ducati in their best track, and he extended his championship lead to 59 points. The title is still his to lose, and ultimately he knows that in the long run – pas this year – Dovizioso is probably his main threat over the course of the season, and Marc demolished Dovi this weekend.
Dovizioso’s problems started before the race, in the tyre selection. He chose medium tyres front and rear, compared to his teammate’s all-soft choice. From the beginning of the race, Dovizioso was struggling to get the bike to stop , and the time he spent behind Lorenzo killed his race, because that was when he was the most comfortable. The mistake he made ten laps from the flag cost him one second, and after that for a couple of laps he couldn’t find a rhythm. By the time he found his pace again, his tyre was finished and the leaders were gone. A disappointing race for Dovi, but another podium strengthens his bid for second in the championship, and you would probably still expect the Italian to be more consistent for the rest of the season than Lorenzo, although Lorenzo now leads him in the championship by two points.
Fourth over the line was Cal Crutchlow, nine seconds back from the win, and 3.5 seconds clear of Danilo Petrucci in fifth. The critical thing for this pair, for the race, was the personnel. Both of them have factory bikes, but none have factory teams, and this is what makes the difference in a rear-tyre-limited/fuel-limited race like this one, because the factory riders have a lot more people working to find the perfect electronics setting, and the perfect fuel strategy. Still, it was Crutchlow’s best Austrian performance by far, after a ride-through in 2016, and a fifteenth last year. Ahead of Silverstone in two weeks, this is a great way for the Brit to go into it, as he looks to win his home race for the first time in his career.
Valentino Rossi and his team made a change in warm up on Sunday morning which allowed him to be more consistent with a used tyre. With this gain, he was able to half-rescue Yamaha’s weekend by finishing sixth, which was beyond his expectation. Of course, it was still a disastrous weekend for Yamaha, and Rossi is still without a podium in Austria in the top class, but the gains made in warm up they will hope can transfer to Silverstone, where they were strong last year.
Dani Pedrosa ahead of Tito Rabat. Image courtesy of HondaProRacing
Dani Pedrosa took seventh place. He got beaten up quite badly in the beginning of the race, in those first two hard braking zones at turns one and three. From there he pretty much followed Rossi through the pack to seventh, helped by some strong late race pace. The critical thing for Dani is a similar one to that of Maverick Vinales, being able to go fast in the beginning. There are circuits coming up which have the potential to be front tyre races, and if Dani can find what he needs, he may yet be able to make his whole MotoGP career winning one race in each season.
Eighth place went to Alex Rins. He was running sixth for much of the race, but was caught by Rossi and Pedrosa quite quickly at the end, indicating he ran out of medium rear tyre. It seems Rins ran into the same tyre wear issues that Suzuki teammate Iannone encountered throughout the year.
Johann Zarco showed what happens when you choose the soft tyre, but can’t manage it, as he came home down in ninth, despite a decent start from the Frenchman from sixth on the grid.
Alvaro Bautista managed to recover a top ten spot despite a difficult start where, like Pedrosa, he was beaten up in those initial stages. Alvaro continues to advertise himself fairly well, as he looks to seal himself a factory Ducati deal for the 2019 Superbike World Championship.
Avintia Ducati’s Tito Rabat looked to be having a strong race, running well inside the top ten for much of the 28 laps, but suffered a one-second-per-lap drop off with his soft rear tyre in the final five laps, in which he dropped from ninth to eleventh behind both Zarco and Bautista. Still, it was a strong weekend for Rabat, who seemingly didn’t need much on the electronic side to save his top ten spot.
The Austrian GP weekend was one to forget for Maverick Vinales. After his poor qualifying on Saturday – not helped by sensor issues – he could only manage twelfth place in the race. He made his typical poor start, dropping to 16th in the first lap, but didn’t have his usual late race pace. This weekend, Vinales complained that it felt like his bike had no power in the opening stages of the race. It’s hard to justify, from the outside, why that would be the case, but anyway, Vinales will be looking to the private test for Yamaha in Misano before Silverstone as an opportunity to make some progress on the bike, but you have to wonder how much he believes he can actually find anything positive at all.
An off-track excursion in the middle of the race cost Andrea Iannone badly. After that, he set four laps which were some of the fastest of the race, but he couldn’t follow it up. The questions are being asked of Iannone again – since he signed for Aprilia for the 2019 and 2020 seasons, his form has completely disappeared. This performance didn’t do much to help this situation.
Bradley Smith behind Valentino Rossi. Image courtesy of Philip Platzer/KTM
A stunning start put Bradley Smith up into the top ten at the start, but by the end of the race the British rider had dropped back to 14th. Nonetheless, a good weekend at home for KTM, picking up some more valuable World Championship points.
The final point went to Takaaki Nakagami, who was the top rookie in fifteenth, 0.9 seconds clear of Hafizh Syahrin.
Aleix Espargaro could only manage seventeenth place on the Aprilia, just ahead of a struggling Jack Miller; then Franco Morbidelli was nineteenth whilst a somewhat disgruntled Scott Redding rounded out the top twenty, a performance and result which left him very open about his opinion on the workings of the team, and also the bike.
Karel Abraham came home in twenty-first place, whilst Tom Luthi was the final finisher in 22nd.
Xavier Simeon had enjoyed his best weekend in MotoGP until lap nine of the race, when he became the only crasher of the race.
101 qualifying sessions, 49 poles. That is Marc Marquez’s qualifying record in MotoGP, an unrivalled record. Perhaps, though, today’s was one of his most impressive. At Ducati’s best circuit; the one most suited to the Desmosedici, and one where Honda should theoretically struggle, he snatched the top spot away from the GP18s by all of 0.002 seconds. Marquez also looks like he can be there in the race, although track temperature could play its part in that. Cal Crutchlow made the point in Brno that if the Ducati of Jorge Lorenzo is using a had front tyre, it is probably too soft for the Honda. In FP4 today, Jorge Lorenzo ran a hard front tyre, implying that if the temperature gets high enough tomorrow, Marquez could be walking away from the Red Bull Ring – the only circuit on the calendar that he has been raced at, but not seen a Marc Marquez victory – without a winners trophy.
The favourite to stop Marquez tomorrow is the rider who finished those two thousandths of a second behind the Spaniard: Andrea Dovizioso. The #04 rider won the Austrian Grand Prix last year, as well as the last race one week ago in Brno, and has looked good all weekend. He may have missed pole position, but that is no rarity for Dovi – he comes alive on race day, and it would be a major upset if he were to be absent from the lead battle in the closing stages tomorrow.
TOp 3 in Qualifying Andrea Dovizioso, Marc Marquez, Jorge Lorenzo – Austrian GP 2018. Image courtesy of Ducati
The same could be said for Jorge Lorenzo. Since Mugello, with the exceptions of Assen and Sachsenring, Lorenzo has been able to maintain the front running pace until the end. Being such a favourable circuit for the Ducati, and one that Lorenzo’s style suits quite well in theory, Jorge was always going to be one to watch coming into this weekend, and so it has proven. Like Dovizioso and Marquez, he looks like he can maintain a similar pace to the end of the race, and if he comes out firing with the aggression he showed in Brno last week, he is going to be tough to stop. That said, it’s not like he is going to be fighting a pair of mugs. Either way, a situation where Ducati do not have a 1-2 tomorrow would be something of a disaster for the Bologna factory, even if they fill the top step.
For the first time in their history, Ducati have three bikes in the top four positions on the grid, as Danilo Petrucci took fourth place on the grid to head up the second row. Petrucci might not be able to make the tyres last for a full race distance tomorrow in the dry, but should the rain arrive – like it has done regularly over the course of this weekend – the number 9 might just be in the mix for a first career race win.
Cal Crutchlow took the fifth fastest time, despite it being perhaps his least favourite circuit on the calendar. Crutchlow doesn’t have the pace of the front riders this weekend, a podium looks a big ask, but a ‘best of the rest’ would be a respectable result for the British rider on a track where he expected to suffer a lot.
Cal Crutchlow at the Redbull Ring. Image courtesy of HondaProRacing
Speaking of suffering, Yamaha did a lot of that on Saturday. Not only were the factory M1s desperately disappointing, but the satellite bike of the man they let walk away to KTM for 2019 was sixth fastest, and four tenths up on the top Movistar bike. It seems that the real Johann Zarco has stood back up, and that will sound alarm bells in the ears of all the front runners, because when Zarco is feeling good, he can cause a lot of problems for his rivals.
Tito Rabat was again very impressive, with the seventh fastest time in Q2, and he starts ahead of and alongside the factory bikes of Suzuki’s Andrea Iannone (2016 Austrian GP winner) and Honda’s Dani Pedrosa.
Tenth place went to Alex Rins, who had to come through Q1, but the big story starts when we reach the eleventh spot, and Maverick Vinales.
The #25 factory Yamaha was ahead only of 12th-placed Alvaro Bautista in the final qualifying session of the day, one second off the pole time. For reference, Vinales was 4th on the grid last year, 0.519 seconds off the pole time with a 1’23.754. Today, Vinales was 11th, 1.043 seconds off pole position with a time of 1’24.284. So, in one year Yamaha have gotten half a second slower. Okay, so, some of that can be put down to track development, since there had only been 75 minutes of slick running before qualifying, but in comparison Marquez’s time was only six thousandths of a second off his pole time of last year. To add to that, Valentino Rossi’s qualifying time last year was a 1’23.982, compared to his time this year of a 1’24.309. So, also, Rossi went four tenths slower this year. Of course, we have known for a while that Yamaha have had problems with acceleration, and they probably haven’t been helped this weekend by the changeable conditions, but to arrive at a circuit and go slower than they managed a year ago when the competitors are not really any slower at all is embarrassing, especially for a factory with the winning history of Yamaha. Perhaps the most frustrating thing about Yamaha is that they have known about their issues probably for longer than the public have, and the public have been aware since Barcelona last year. It was so bad today, that the Yamaha MotoGP Project Leader, Kouji Tsuya, delayed the media debriefs of the two factory riders to publicly apologise to them in front of the media for the poor performance of the bike this weekend. Apologies aside, tomorrow is going to be just as embarrassing and disappointing, if not more so, as today, and the Iwata manufacturer will have to hope that this is the bottom of the pit they fell into last year, and that the bottom is elasticated, because they really need to bounce back.
Back to qualifying, and it was a brilliant session for Bradley Smith, who nearly made Q2, missing out for all of 0.015 seconds.
Smith also beat Valentino Rossi by 0.064 seconds, a big scalp for the KTM-shod Brit. 14th represents Rossi’s worst qualifying since Australia 2016 when he was 15th. He finished Australia 2016 2nd, behind Cal Crutchlow, but a repeat of that in the race, in any condition, would be beyond miraculous, such is the hole both he and Yamaha have found themselves in, particularly this weekend. Rossi’s result, combined with Vinales’, meant that it was the first time since 2007 that both factory Yamahas had finished outside the top ten in a dry qualifying.
Aleix Espargaro has had a difficult weekend, presumably still suffering with the injury from Germany, but nonetheless managed to qualifying fifteenth.
Franco Morbidelli at Redbull Ring. Image courtesy of HondaProracing.
Sixteenth on the grid tomorrow should reserved for Franco Morbidelli, who would line up alongside Jack Miller and Hafizh Syahrin on the sixth row of the grid. However, the Italian picked up a grid penalty of three positions for cruising in free practice. So it’s nineteenth for the reigning Moto2 World Champion, and Miller heads up row six from Syahrin and Simeon.
Scott Redding will start twentieth tomorrow and Taka Nakagami completes the revised row seven that has Morbidelli at its head.
The eighth and final row only has two riders this weekend, because Pol Espargaro is recovering from his nasty high side in Brno last week. It’s Tom Luthi and Karel Abraham who complete the 23-rider grid, in 22nd and 23rd respectively.
Nine in a row. That is Marc Marquez’s pole record in Sachsenring. It is a stunning statistic that will likely go unmatched by any other rider in any track. But the endlessly left-handed nature of the German Grand Prix track lends itself beautifully to Marquez’s flat tracking background, where turning left is the way of life. But that does not mean that pole position was handed to him on a silver platter, by twenty-three other riders kneeling before him. It was mostly thanks to Marquez’ approach this weekend, which has been entirely focused around race runs. He put almost a full race distance on a tyre in each of the first three free practice session, and didn’t bother to try a time attack.
This, obviously, hampered the reigning champion’s qualifying preparation, and handed a rare Saturday advantage to the rest of the pack. Most notably Jorge Lorenzo and Danilo Petrucci; the current factory Ducati rider towing his 2019 replacement to provisional pole position with just over one minute left on the clock. But finally it was Marquez who took pole, by 0.025 seconds from Petrucci, with his very final lap, the value of such a result highlighted by the #93’s celebrations.
Second place for Petrucci was probably better than he had expected. Danilo had been around the top times all weekend, and had looked good over one lap. But still, to beat both the factory Ducatis and the Yamahas in qualifying is quite an achievement – especially at a track which historically should not suit Ducati. The problem for Danilo is race pace, which he admits is a different story to qualifying, but if he can get some track position at the beginning of the race, anything is possible.
Jorge Lorenzo. Image courtesy of Ducati
Jorge Lorenzo might be a little annoyed when he watched qualifying back when he realises he towed Petrucci round for his fastest time, something which Petrucci thanked Jorge for in the parc ferme after qualifying. Even still, at a track which no one expected the Ducati to go well at, Lorenzo is on the front row, less than one tenth off a pole position set by the most prolific pole hound both MotoGP and the Sachsenring has ever seen. But, as for Petrucci, the key to victory lies in the tyre life, an area in which Ducati seem to have regressed this year and in the scorching heat of the Saxony summer, is a big factor this weekend.
Maverick Vinales is off the front of the second row tomorrow after a solid qualifying session. Both he and teammate Valentino Rossi are suffering with wheelspin this weekend, but this time it is Vinales who is making the most of the situation, and has looked to have a little bit of pace over his more experienced teammate. The qualification was an important one for Vinales, too, because from there, even if he makes an average start, he should be in a decent position going into turn one – one from which he can recover. The number 25 is in the hunt for the podium, but like the Ducati riders the key is going to be making the tyre last.
The third and final GP18 on the grid tomorrow is Andrea Dovizioso, who is without a podium since Mugello but has looked strong this weekend, and seems to be the only one who can go with Marquez. With this in mind, it is essential that Dovi makes a good start from the middle of the second row tomorrow so that he doesn’t have too much work to do in the opening laps to be in contention. Of course, the tight layout at Sachsenring which features no real straight is difficult to overtake on, so making positions off the line will be essential for Dovi tomorrow if he wants to have a shot at Marc.
Sixth on the grid for Valentino Rossi looks quite good considering that at the end of yesterday he was seventeenth, 0.8 seconds off the pace. He has had some decent race pace, too, able to lap in the high 1’21s which looks at this stage as though it will be podium pace. There are many riders in that fight, though, including Lorenzo, Vinales and Petrucci, so Rossi will need a good start from the back of the second row if he wants to be in the podium battle. However, of all the riders theoretically in that fight, he looks to be the most fragile with the tyre, perhaps even more than Petrucci.
Cal Crutchlow has had a difficult weekend, but recovered well today to take seventh on the grid. He is another who can be in the podium fight. Andrea Iannone and an impressive Alvaro Bautista join Crutchlow on the third row.
Dani Pedrosa looks back on some kind of form, and has a good race pace with podium potential, but if he wants his first rostrum of the season he will have to recover well at the start as he qualified only tenth.
Alex Rins. Image courtesy of Suzuki Racing
The Suzuki of Alex Rins is on the middle of the third row tomorrow, in the middle of the Honda sandwich, between retiree Pedrosa and rookie Takaaki Nakagami, who had a brilliant qualifying – making his second Q2 of his short MotoGP career.
Johann Zarco qualified fourteenth, but thanks to a six-place penalty for Aleix Espargaro – for blocking Marc Marquez in FP3 – the Frenchman will start thirteenth alongside Jack Miller and Pol Espargaro on row five.
Bradley Smith, Hafizh Syahrin and Tito Rabat make up row six, whilst Espargaro’s penalty dropped him to nineteenth, and will be joined on row seven by Scott Redding and Franco Morbidelli’s replacement, Stefan Bradl who was commentating yesterday morning before he got the shout that Morbidelli could not continue.
Tom Luthi, Karel Abraham and Xavier Simeon make up the back row of the grid, whilst Mika Kallio will not start after his huge FP2 crash yesterday in which he suffered ligament damage in his knee.
Featured Image courtesy of Gold & Goose/Red Bull Content Pool
Marc Marquez sliding past the apex. Image courtesy of Hondanews.eu
On Sunday, the Moto3 race was delayed until 1pm BST. Or, at least, that’s what you would have thought if all the bikes and riders were blacked-out. A better race you are unlikely to see, than the 2018 Dutch TT, at least outside of Phillip Island. Mind you, even the thrillers we have seen in Australia in 2015 and 2017 probably don’t come close to last weekend’s MotoGP race – it was almost perfect. The only thing this race missed was a final lap, final corner battle for the victory, but there is only so much you can do about someone being faster, smarter and more superhuman than everyone else. Yes, it was Marc Marquez who won the TT but that does not tell nearly half the tale.
Jorge Lorenzo saved the race, early on. He had not had much pace all weekend, relatively, and didn’t look as though he could have fought for the win. However, he made nine passes on the opening lap, including about four in the first corner where he rode around the outside. That put him in the lead, once he had passed Marquez for first position in turn ten. At this point it would have been hard to find an onlooker who was not thinking: “three in a row?!” And Lorenzo led well, leading a total of thirteen laps in this race where it seemed impossible to maintain position in that first group of between six and nine (depending on the point of the race). In fact, Lorenzo led more laps than anyone, even more than Marquez who led only eight in comparison. But the two laps between lap fourteen and seventeen were the ones which ruined Lorenzo’s race because they broke his often impenetrable rhythm. They were two intense laps of tough battling between Jorge ad Ducati teammate, Andrea Dovizioso, who was after getting past the #99 and trying to stretch the group at this stage in the race. But Lorenzo didn’t give up, he passed Dovi in almost every corner until a misjudged pass at the final chicane by the Spaniard saw him run slightly wide, and ultimately out of contention. From there, the winner of the past two races dropped to seventh, his dim championship flame seemingly ultimately extinguished by Assen. Well, what else should it have been?
But, even at this point, Marquez was not home and dry for this victory; still Dovizioso, Valentino Rossi, Maverick Vinales, Alex Rins and Cal Crutchlow were in the running. All had looked strong the whole race, put strong moves and showed both their strengths and weaknesses. But the critical thing was that the only rider who was able to build a rhythm had been dropped from the leading group.
The next big talking point came when Marc Marquez and Maverick Vinales touched heading into De Bult, both running way wide, out of the track, allowing Dovi and Rossi through, the #04 leading the #46. Rossi made his move for the lead at the chicane, where he had been strong all day, but missing the run out of the chicane made The Doctor vulnerable to the acceleration of the Desmosedici on the way out, and Dovi re-assumed the lead at turn one. That was over the course of the half-lap which spanned from lap 21 to 22. And it was lap 22 when Marquez made his break.
Rossi moved to the inside of Dovi on the entry to Osserbroeken, and although the cameras cut away, the assumption you can make is that: Rossi went to the inside of the Ducati, Dovi held it around the outside of the M1 to have the inside for De Strubben; they both suffered on the exit of De Strubben and Marquez capitalised. Dovi took second place, Rossi slipped to third, and Marc ran. Rossi knew if he wanted to win, he had to pass Dovi quickly, especially because Vinales, Rins and Crutchlow were arriving behind. But it took Rossi until the end of lap 24 to make a pass on Dovi, by which time Marquez was gone but a podium was still possible for the Italian pair. But, as happened two laps previous, Rossi was beaten on the run out of the chicane by Dovizioso, who matched the #46 on the brakes. Both were strong on the anchors but Dovi had the line, and forced Rossi out of the track and back to fifth spot. This was a talking point immediately after the race, Rossi questioning the intelligence of Dovizioso’s move, whilst Andrea defended his decision by explaining that he had the line. It is worth pointing out at this point that had the positions been reversed, and Rossi been on the inside of Dovizioso, the nine-times World Champion would have done precisely the same thing as his compatriot. If anything, Rossi should have let Dovizioso go, and tried to undercut the Desmosedici rider on the exit of turn one. But, everything is very easy to say in hindsight, and from your sofa.
Anyway, that put Rossi definitely out of podium contention, and Dovi pretty much out of it too. It was now Vinales and Rins who would fight over second, and finally it was Rins who took it on the final lap at Ramshoek, forcing Vinales out in an entirely fair, but still suitably aggressive, manner.
So, over the line for the 26th and final time it was Marquez to win from Rins and Vinales.
Firstly, it is hard to ignore the irony of Honda’s favourite son, winning on a Honda, in Assen (a “Yamaha track”), one year on from Yamaha’s last MotoGP victory, on the Iwata manufacturer’s 63rd birthday which was also the last time the Dutch TT was held in July. But what a win it was, from his first Assen MotoGP pole – his 75th in Grand Prix – and in such a superb race. And, as you might expect from Marc, he threw down some big moves too, especially in De Strubben, where he was not afraid of getting some foreign paint on his factory Honda. Even when people were putting moves on Marc, he managed to make it a Marquez spectacle, such as when Rins passed him in De Strubben – having obviously studied the moves of the six-time World Champion – and they touched on the exit; Marquez fell off the side of the bike but managed to pull himself back on the RC213V without losing as much as a tenth. Furthermore, in the same way it is possible to say that Marquez saves those huge front end slides through skill and not luck, it is equally possible to say that he does not win these crazy pack races through luck, but by being clever and making sure he is always in the correct position to be both proactive and reactive, to create situations and respond to ones created by others in the best way. Just think; Phillip Island 2015, Phillip Island 2017, Assen 2018; all pack races, all won by Marquez. Perhaps the only pack race he hasn’t won was Qatar this year. He’s a special rider and with a 41-point lead now, and eleven races remaining, it is coming close to the moment to state the inevitability of his seventh GP title, especially with Sachsenring up next.
Alex Rins’ second place was a crucial one after a tough period for the Suzuki rider. Barcelona had been a disaster for the Spaniard and despite a decent performance in Mugello where he finished fifth behind teammate Andrea Iannone, every race for the number 42 had been difficult since his podium in Argentina. This podium was a good way to bounce back and also proved that at least most of the tyre drop off issues that Iannone is suffering with the GSX-RR is down to the fleshy bit sat atop the #29. Now the onus is on Rins to make sure that this podium is not quickly forgotten, but rather built upon. He needs to assume the number one role in the team from Iannone before the Italian departs for Aprilia at the end of the season.
It was a welcome return to the podium in Holland for Maverick Vinales, two-and-a-half months on from his previous rostrum in COTA. Finally, Vinales made a decent start and despite dropping two positions, he was still in touch with the leaders after the first laps and, largely thanks to the identity of the early leader, Jorge Lorenzo, the time it took for Vinales to come into his rhythm did not leave him out of podium contention as it had done in the past. He was quick to make moves, too, although when he came up to the back of teammate, Rossi, he was noticeably more gun-shy, probably out of a lack of want to endure the wrath of Yamaha head office on their birthday. Anyway, a third place is not what Yamaha would have hoped for on their anniversary but perhaps the new company record for time between wins will inspire the engineers in Iwata to producing something sufficient to allow Vinales to pursue a first MotoGP title which he believes is not yet out of reach.
The fourth place of Dovizioso perhaps does not reflect what he deserved, because he had the speed for the podium, but the ‘incident’ Rossi ended any hopes of a top three for the Italian. However, Dovi did prove that on non-‘Lorenzo’ tracks, he still has the upper hand on his teammate, especially over race distance and the pure fact that he was in the running for most of the race for the victory shows again that the Ducati has improved on its weak points. Unfortunately, Dovizioso now lies 61 points behind Marquez in the championship, so his hopes are as good as gone. It has to be ‘win or bin’ now for Dovi, he will be after race wins for the remainder of the season – no one goes racing for second place.
Valentino Rossi had the potential to win the 2018 Dutch TT but he was both unfortunate and occasionally poorly placed. But ultimately, it was the speed of the Ducati compared to the Yamaha which cost Rossi the podium; had Dovizioso not gotten the acceleration out of the final chicane that he did on lap 24, he would not have been able to force Rossi onto the run-off area on the exit of turn one – and his drive was mostly down to his motorcycle. You might say that Rossi should have passed Dovizioso in a different place to the last chicane but ultimately it was the only place he was strong enough to make a pass on the #04, since the speed of the Desmosedici put it out of range of the M1 on the pit straight, making a move into turn one impossible, and he wasn’t strong enough anywhere else. When Marquez had his contact with Rins it was Rossi who suffered, backing out of the throttle to avoid the Spanish pair and dropping a position to Dovizioso in the process. Furthermore, Rossi occasionally left himself open to attack, especially in De Strubben where he was passed by both Marquez and Rins. But what was very frustrating from Rossi’s perspective was that he looked like he had the pace to break away at the front on many occasions during the race, so a fifth is a big disappointment for the Italian. Additionally, the fifth place ended a run of three consecutive podiums for the Italian, dropped him forty-one points behind in the World Championship and thus ultimately put a tenth title out of reach for at least one more year.
It could have been worse for Rossi had Cal Crutchlow not run wide at turn eight with two to go. In the end it was sixth for Crutchlow, and he made the least overtakes of the front group riders, only three over the course of the 26 laps compared to Valentino Rossi and Maverick Vinales who both had the most with fourteen. Perhaps in that stat lies the cause of the result for Cal, who after the race explained that pack races disadvantage Honda riders because the RC213V does not accelerate, and it overheats the front tyre. This only makes Marquez’ victory more impressive. But the disadvantages of the Honda lead to difficulties overtaking and in a race of this nature, an inability to overtake is race-killer.
After his amazing start and long stint at the front of the race, Jorge Lorenzo dropped back through the pack to finish seventh, 4.462 seconds off the win. It was lucky he finished at all though. At one point whilst leading he seemed to make a mistake in Meuwenmeer, and Valentino Rossi piled into the back of him. The fact that the pair got away from the incident without crashing, nor losing a position was remarkable, although Jorge’s lunch was nearly dropped out the back of the GP18’s ‘salad box’. Apart from that, it was good to see such a big fight from Jorge in the race, fighting with 110% for the entire 26 laps and for every position. This is a Jorge Lorenzo we haven’t seen before – it’s both refreshing and worrying.
Johann Zarco was typically aggressive in the opening stages of the race, mixing it strongly with the front group, but in the end dropped back quite a lot and finished ultimately seven seconds off the win in eighth place. Anyway, it was good to see Zarco back in the front group after a period of difficulty since his home GP crash three races ago. Alvaro Bautista took yet another top ten in ninth place, whilst 2016 Dutch TT winner, Jack Miller, crossed the line tenth.
Eleventh place went to Andrea Iannone who had a messy race. He was in the front group in the early laps, but ran wide in the chicane which cost him the contact with the front group, and was later handed a time penalty for cutting the Geert Timmer Chicane.
Pol Espargaro finished twelfth for KTM. Perhaps the first signs of frustration from the Austrian marque’s riders started to show through after this weekend, when Espargaro expressed a displeasure at the lack of progress made by the Red Bull-backed constructor in 2018.
It was the other Espargaro brother, Aleix, who finished thirteenth, which would not have pleased him much, although he would have been relieved to finish; but at a circuit like Assen, which rewards a nimble chassis, it was disappointing to see the RSGP so relatively uncompetitive.
The Dutch TT weekend proved to be Scott Redding’s best of 2018. After qualifying better than he had done all season, he finished fourteenth, less than one tenth behind his Spanish teammate. Hopefully for Scott this upward turn morphs into an upward trend, and the British rider can find himself with some decent offers on the table for 2019 by when his time at Aprilia will be at an end.
The final point went to Dani Pedrosa. It was an awful weekend for Dani, which he put, at least in part, down to the speculation about his future. Whatever the issues, fifteenth place is not where Dani Pedrosa should be, but with a strong track for Dani coming up, the Sachsenring, maybe he can reverse his fortunes in Germany.
Tito Rabat will be disappointed with a non-points-scoring ride. To be honest, it feels quite good to be able to say about Rabat that he should be disappointed about not scoring points after two years of scraping the barrel on the satellite Honda. Rabat was followed home by Bradley Smith, Hafizh Syahrin, Takaaki Nakagami and Tom Luthi.
Danilo Petrucci, Xavier Simeon and Karel Abraham were the only retirements, whilst Franco Morbidelli did not start, following his FP3 crash in which he broke a metacarpal.
For round nine, the MotoGP World Championship heads to Germany, and the Sachsenring, in two weeks time – a traditional Marc Marquez stronghold.
Assen, once more, has not disappointed. It is only qualifying day but this weekend might be the best of the season already. In Q2, just 0.376 seconds separated the top ten riders, and it seemed like almost each of those twelve had a spell in pole position.
In the end, though, it was Marc Marquez who took his 75th Grand Prix pole position, his third of 2018 and first at Assen in the premier class. The result for Marquez was somewhat expected; despite suffering with the front quite a lot this weekend, he has been fast throughout and was always going to be difficult to beat to the first grid slot. All of his lap time came in the final sector, perhaps predictably, and this is important for tomorrow, because if he is fighting for the win come lap 26 he is absolutely going to be able to launch his #93 Honda up the inside of whoever is in front of him into the final chicane. He probably will be there, too; along with Maverick Vinales, Marquez has enjoyed the best race pace of anyone this weekend, and is probably the favourite tomorrow. He is the only rider who can make the 2018 Dutch TT a dull race.
Cal Crutchlow made it a Honda 1-2 in qualifying, with a strong fastest lap at the end of Q2 to secure his spot in the middle of the front row. The critical thing for Cal tomorrow will be track temperature, and how that affects the front tyre, which is once again the limiting factor for Honda this weekend. His pace looks quite strong, too – if he can go with the front riders from the start then he can battle for the podium.
Also likely to be in that battle is Valentino Rossi, who qualified third. The Italian has seemed to have the pace to fight for a fourth consecutive podium all weekend, and maybe even a first win of 2018. However, his weekend took a negative turn when he crashed at the very high speed turn seven, Ruskenhoek, in FP4. This crash not only upset his rhythm into qualifying, but also hindered his race preparation for tomorrow, and cost him valuable minutes in FP4 where he might have wanted to try something different. Anyway, he recovered well to be third fastest in what was a very competitive Q2, and put himself in a good position to end both his and Yamaha’s year long winless run.
Andrea Dovizioso. Image courtesy of Ducati
Andrea Dovizioso has looked strong all weekend too, enjoying pace superior to that of his Honda bound teammate; Jorge Lorenzo, and pace enough to be in the frame for a third podium of 2018. For Dovi, it was important to qualify well to allow him to use his good pace from the beginning of tomorrow’s race, and he managed to do that, qualifying fourth. Ducati have been without a win in Assen since 2008 with Casey Stoner (who else?), their only Dutch TT win, but now Dovi is in a very good position to be able add a second victory to that, and if things go his way, maybe even bring himself back into championship contention.
Alex Rins and Maverick Vinales join Dovi on the second row, in fifth and sixth respectively. For Rins, this was a great result, as he out-qualified teammate Andrea Iannone, and recovered well from what had been a difficult weekend up to qualifying. It will be interesting to see whether the steps he seemed to have made for qualifying will also translate into race pace.
For Vinales, sixth is something of a disappointment. Over the whole weekend the number 25 had looked good, constantly being amongst the top riders in all practice sessions, and having strong race pace as well as decent one-lap speed. However, being less than 0.2 seconds off the pole position time of Marquez in Q2 was not enough for Vinales to qualify any better than sixth. The most important thing for Vinales is, as ever, to make a good start and go with the leaders on the first laps. If he can do that, he has the pace to win.
The third row is headed up by a very impressive Aleix Espargaro, who is joined on row three by Johann Zarco, who has seemed to struggle this weekend, and Andrea Iannone who, with one minute to go, was running second in Q2.
Jorge Lorenzo qualified in tenth place, just 0.376 seconds off the pole time, and with one minute to go, he was on pole. Either way, Jorge has struggled more this weekend compared to the last two races, and has been generally slower than his teammate, Dovizioso. However, it is difficult to discount Lorenzo from podium contention in the race given his recent form, but he will need to find something big in morning warm up.
Lorenzo’s Ducati replacement for 2019, Danilo Petrucci, will line up between Lorenzo and the slowest rider of Q2, Alvaro Bautista. Bautista tends to race a lot better than he qualifies, so it will be interesting to see what he can do from twelfth tomorrow.
Bradley Smith signing fan’s hats. Image courtesy of Philip Platzer/KTM
Thirteenth place went to Takaaki Nakagami, who is alongside Tito Rabat and Hafizh Syahrin on row five tomorrow; row six consists of Jack Miller, Scott Redding and a struggling Dani Pedrosa; row seven will be occupied by Karel Abraham, Bradley Smith and Pol Espargaro and the two riders on row eight are Tom Luthi and Xavier Simeon.
Franco Morbidelli suffered a broken metacarpal in FP3 this morning and was ruled unfit, so only 23 bikes will start tomorrow. Hopefully Franky will be back in Sachsenring.
