Category: MotoGp

The Austrian Grand Prix weekend was a complete disaster for Yamaha, there is no other word. Both on the track and off it, Yamaha’s weekend at the last Grand Prix was nothing short of embarrassing. Hampered by a mechanical in the only dry free practice, FP1, Valentino Rossi failed to make Q2 directly from free practice, and could only manage fourteenth on the grid, complaining that the soft tyre was too soft for the Yamaha. Meanwhile, Maverick Vinales was only eleventh on the grid, suffering with sensor problems. This Saturday slump led the MotoGP project leader, Kouji Tsuya, to apologise to both the manufacturer’s factory riders for the poor performance of the bike, promising improvements are on the way in two upcoming tests.

One of those tests – in Misano – has already been and gone. We will only find out whether there was any progress on Friday, but for the sake of the manufacturer, you would hope that there have been some positive findings.

So, we know the situation, some have described this as “rock bottom” for Yamaha. They sit second in the riders championship with Valentino Rossi, third in the manufacturers’ standings, 53 points from the Honda at the top; and third in the teams’ championship with twelve points between the Movistar team and the Repsol Honda outfit. The numbers don’t seem so bad, and that is because the M1, despite many contrary opinions, has improved in some areas this year, and this has allowed it to be strong in some circuits. However, the neglection of the core issue with the bike means that in the places where the M1 was weak last year, it is weaker this year, because everyone else has moved on. So, whilst the balance of the bike has improved compared to last year, and the M1 is back to being the smooth, high-corner-speed bike we know it as, the electronics have not progressed – or not progressed enough – which in this era of MotoGP is the most critical part.

As Rossi mentioned before Austria, the Red Bull Ring is the M1’s worst circuit, the slow speed corners followed by long straights is the worst combination for it, because it can’t use its corner speed, and its acceleration issues are emphasised. So it is likely that in the coming weekends the M1 will seem in a good way again, but that won’t mean that the issues are solved, just that they are masked by the circuit layout.

But where did this start? We know the situation Yamaha are in at the moment – their worst moment since 1998 – but where did this path start? Why are they in this hole?

It’s possible to trace the root of their issues back to 2015. The M1 was the best bike in 2015, no doubt about it. The bike was the best out of the box in Qatar for the first race, and the developments Yamaha brought to the bike throughout the year almost always worked. But there was one issue, a familiar one: rear tyre wear. Yamaha were able to get around this three years ago because they had the luxury of factory electronics, designed specifically for the M1, and understood perfectly by the engineers in Iwata.

With the introduction of the universal, spec ECU in 2016, though, Yamaha became complacent. They heard “controlled electronics” and took that as gospel, putting less effort than their competitors – notably Honda and Ducati – into developing and understanding the Magneti Marelli software. Whilst their two biggest rivals went out and poached engineers from Marelli themselves, and the likes of Suzuki sent their own engineers to Italy to learn the functions of the controlled software, Yamaha didn’t act, and worked on the new system themselves, with no external assistance.

Instead of focusing on electronics, Yamaha looked at the chassis, the motor and the aerodynamics of the M1. The first item they introduced to combat the tyre wear issues was a new chassis, at the post-race Valencia test at the end of 2015. It didn’t work, neither Jorge Lorenzo nor Valentino Rossi liked the update, which had the fuel tank mounted further back in the bike, with the fuel going into the bike in the tail section, behind the seat. So, the 2016 chassis was essentially the 2015 chassis, with some slightly bigger wings on the front. However, the 2015 chassis was by far the best on the grid in 2015, meaning that in the first half of 2016, the Yamaha was still the best machine out there, and was only missing the championship lead through reliability (Rossi’s blow up in the Mugello race – and Lorenzo’s in warm up the same day – were supposedly due to a mapping problem on the electronics which allowed the bike to over-rev over the crest, with disastrous consequences) and rider error.

From the halfway point of the 2016 season, though, when Honda and Ducati started to see the fruits of their labour with regards to the electronics, Yamaha started to fall back, unable to make the tyre last the distance. The first time it really became apparent was in Aragon, where Rossi led the early stages, but was hunted down by Marquez with ease once the tyres started to drop slightly. This set the tone for the rest of the season, with Yamaha not winning until Valencia of that year, and even then Lorenzo was closed down hand over fist by Marc Marquez in the final laps of the race.

The degradation issues with the rear that the M1 was suffering with in the second half of 2016 prompted Yamaha to go full revolution – in MotoGP terms – with the 2017 bike. Initially, it looked like they had got it right. Rossi was struggling a lot through free practices, but was able to find something for Sunday, whilst Vinales looked almost unbeatable in the first portion of the season – only denied a sweep of the first three races by a crash in Texas, and even that handed Rossi the championship lead. Everything looked good for Yamaha as the championship entered the European season, but it was in Jerez, where Vinales finished sixth and Rossi only tenth, that it started to decline for the Movistar team. Another poor result in Barcelona (Rossi 8th, Vinales 10th) showed the extent of Yamaha’s misdirection, especially as Rossi had won in both Jerez and Barcelona the previous year, and there had been no changes to either circuits.

New chassis’ arrived for the pair to test in the post-race test in Montmelo 2017, supposedly the 2017 chassis with some 2016 bits (stiffness ratios, for example) and Rossi felt that one in particular was an improvement. Supposedly Vinales preferred the original 2017 design, but he was forced into using the one that Rossi had chosen, a decision which haunted Vinales’ mind for the rest of the season.

Rossi won the next race, and it seemed all was well once again, but wet weather nightmares, and poor dry pace regardless, in Sachsenring proved otherwise. Another string of poor results in the second half of 2017, and a terrible weekend in Valencia, sent the team to do what they had been avoiding for half a season, and they switched overnight to the 2016 chassis. No setup time meant that they had no pace in the race, and it was another disastrous result for the factory team, made no better by the fact that Johann Zarco on the Tech 3 Yamaha was fighting for the victory against Dani Pedrosa.

The post-race Valencia test in 2017 saw all manner of different combinations in both the factory Yamaha garage, and the Tech 3 pit, as they tried to find a direction for 2018. Ultimately, they reverted to the 2016 design for their base, but once more over the winter there was a lack of investment in the electronic side, and from the first tests of the 2018 preseason, it was clear that the M1 was still a way off being able to win a race.

Now, though, it is clear that the problem lies not only in the electronic side of the Yamaha, but in other areas too.

A new engine was introduced over the winter, liked by both riders and thus homologated. Furthermore, it is believed  both Honda and Ducati has had continued development over the last months, whilst Yamaha has remained stagnant in this area.

The engine, though, is perhaps the most immediate issue. Fundamentally, Yamaha messed up with the design of this year’s engine, and the crankshaft is too light, meaning the engine is too aggressive. It is the same thing which caused Honda so many problems in 2015 and ’16, and the most critical problem Suzuki faced last year. The biggest problem for Yamaha is that they cannot change the engine until the winter, for now they have to make do with what they have, and what they have is not good enough.

On the organisational side, this could prove just as fatal as any mechanical or electronic issue with the M1. A full overhaul of the management and inner workings of the Iwata manufacturer could produce instability lasting for months and even years, putting them out of contention for titles for as long as that instability lasts. Without stability and progressive evolution inside the team, or the whole Yamaha MotoGP department, it becomes difficult to work correctly and make progress with the bike, because the new people have to fit together in the new system, and that takes time, especially when it is a reactionary move – and in this case, it would be most certainly reactionary on Yamaha’s part. That said, staying as they are resigns them to stagnation; to progress, they have to change the way they work, and just like with the engine, they have no choice.

A third issue appeared after Brno. A Ducati engineer explained that the key to the Michelin tyres is to use the drive grip, the centre of the tyre. They said that one of the reasons Yamaha are struggling at the moment, could be that they spend so much time on the side of the tyre. This is because the style of the Yamaha is to run a lot of corner speed, and to utilise the edge grip of the tyre. The problem is that this increases wheelspin, and thus tyre wear. This is especially worrying for Yamaha, because it means that they could face redesigning the entire motorcycle, completely changing their philosophy to comply with the demands of the Michelin.

Whilst this would be one of a number of things that stand between Yamaha and wining again, personally I hope this is not one that will be fleshed out. One of the biggest appeals of motorcycle racing is the diversity and variety, both in riding styles and design philosophies. If Yamaha were to go away from their traditional ‘corner speed’ bikes for the sake of tyres, it would be a shame, because it would essentially mean that to win, there is only one way, and that is not MotoGP, it is not MotoGP to me, anyway.

Neglecting the latest point, Yamaha still have a lot of work to do before they arrive at a Grand Prix in a state where they can win again. Starting with the engine, of which a 2019 spec should be in their final test day of 2018 in Aragon, after Silverstone, there are many aspects on which the engineers back in Japan have to work upon, and really it is doubtful that they will even be able to win consistently, if at all, next year. However, the (belated) announcement of a Yamaha European test team for next year shows they are on the right track, and are intent on solving their issues in the longer term.

For now, though; I tweeted on the day of the French Grand Prix that “If it (a Yamaha win) won’t happen today then it won’ t happen at all in 2018”, and right now that prediction seems fairly on the money.

Featured Image courtesy Yamaha Motor Racing

“Ducati Land”. That was the tag Marc Marquez labelled the Red Bull Ring on Saturday, despite setting pole position in Q2 by 0.002 seconds over Andrea Dovizioso. There was no debate about his statement, the slow corners, followed by long straights that the Red Bull Ring is comprised of suits the Desmosedici perfectly.

In the same moment, the same characteristics of the Red Bull Ring lend themselves extremely well to Jorge Lorenzo, whose style is all geared to strong corner exit speed.

Whilst there was a miscommunication on Saturday in the #99 side of the Ducati garage, it would be solely down to his only two rivals – Marquez and Ducati teammate Andresa Dovizioso – to defeat the Majorcan over the 28-lap race distance.

But that is not to say that Lorenzo was the clear favourite; both Marquez and Dovizioso had looked at least as strong as the five times World Champion on the previous two days, and Marquez was the only rider in the field to have managed to get a long run in on all tyres.

However, it made it no less surprising to see Marquez escape at the front in the beginning of the race. The reigning World Champion admitted after the race that his strategy was to bolt away at the start, to try to fight only one Ducati, as he had learned from Brno that fighting two factory Desmosedicis at the same time is nearly impossible, such is their strength in both acceleration and braking.

His strategy nearly worked. When Marquez passed Dovi in turn three on the first lap, he ran the Italian out wide, costing him two places. It let Lorenzo through, but Marquez at this stage was more worried about Dovi. Once Marquez had passed Lorenzo for the lead, he started to pull away, and Lorenzo looked to be both struggling and holding up his factory Ducati teammate.

But Dovizioso was unable to pass the number 99, which for a while looked okay, because the gap between Marquez and Lorenzo was decreasing. But in the same moment as Lorenzo passed Marquez for the lead, in turn one on lap nineteen, Dovizioso ran wide, lost one second, and was unable in the remaining ten laps to close the margin.

It was, then, between Lorenzo and Marquez. They swapped positions often, Marquez being very strong into turn three, and Lorenzo more so in turns one, eight and nine.

Eventually, the final lap arrived, with Marquez leading into it, but Lorenzo passing him into turn one. Marquez responded in turn three, but simultaneously lost both the front and the rear, which meant Lorenzo was able to carry the momentum around the outside, and out-drag the number 93 to turn four. The gap now was quite big, and over Lorenzo Marquez did not have the same advantage in the two left handers of turns six and seven that he had over Dovizioso last year. This, combined with Marquez’s mistake in turn three, was the deciding factor, because Marquez could not get close enough into either turn nine or ten to make a pass, and he could not deny Lorenzo victory.

Jorge learned his lesson from last year. In 2017, he went too hard at the start, trying to escape, but he used too much fuel, which meant that he had to run softer engine modes in the later laps, giving him nothing to fight with in the second half of the race. This year, he managed the fuel at the start, as well as the tyre (he went soft-soft), and this allowed him to attack more at the end, at no disadvantage to Marquez. Furthermore, Lorenzo proved once again that the soft, when managed correctly, can last better than a medium or a hard rear tyre, simply because it spins less, and so there is less excessive temperature build up in the tyre.

Perhaps, though, the most impressive thing about Lorenzo’s ride, was his aggression in the battle against Marquez. There were some tough moves going down in this battle, it was a proper scrap, one that you might expect Lorenzo to lose out in, in the past, but on this occasion, just like in Brno a week previous, Jorge had enough and more to be able to put up a fight against the best scrapper in the world, and he turned the Red Bull Ring from “Ducati Land” to “Lorenzo’s Land”. Again, we ask “what if?” What if Jorge Lorenzo had started the season in the form he has had since Mugello. What if Ducati had listened to him, and given him the fuel tank modifications sooner? What if Ducati re-signed him? Jorge Lorenzo has the potential to fight for this world title, but unfortunately all the work he has put in this year to work out the Ducati will be for nothing when he jumps on the Honda RC213V at Valencia in November, and starts all over again. But for now, he and the Desmosedici might just be the strongest package out there.

For Marquez, it was yet another disappointing defeat at the hand of a Ducati rider in the final lap. That said, he couldn’t do much about it. The Ducati gets out of the corner better than the Honda, it has more power in the straight than the Honda and it has better braking stability than the Honda. You can’t fight that. Marquez was over the limit trying to fight the Ducati of Lorenzo in this battle, and when that happens he normally wins. In fact, against any other bike, he wins 9/10 times. Even still, Marquez can be content with his effort in Austria, he beat one Ducati in their best track, and he extended his championship lead to 59 points. The title is still his to lose, and ultimately he knows that in the long run – pas this year – Dovizioso is probably his main threat over the course of the season, and Marc demolished Dovi this weekend.

Dovizioso’s problems started before the race, in the tyre selection. He chose medium tyres front and rear, compared to his teammate’s all-soft choice. From the beginning of the race, Dovizioso was struggling to get the bike to stop , and the time he spent behind Lorenzo killed his race, because that was when he was the most comfortable. The mistake he made ten laps from the flag cost him one second, and after that for a couple of laps he couldn’t find a rhythm. By the time he found his pace again, his tyre was finished and the leaders were gone. A disappointing race for Dovi, but another podium strengthens his bid for second in the championship, and you would probably still expect the Italian to be more consistent for the rest of the season than Lorenzo, although Lorenzo now leads him in the championship by two points.

Fourth over the line was Cal Crutchlow, nine seconds back from the win, and 3.5 seconds clear of Danilo Petrucci in fifth. The critical thing for this pair, for the race, was the personnel. Both of them have factory bikes, but none have factory teams, and this is what makes the difference in a rear-tyre-limited/fuel-limited race like this one, because the factory riders have a lot more people working to find the perfect electronics setting, and the perfect fuel strategy. Still, it was Crutchlow’s best Austrian performance by far, after a ride-through in 2016, and a fifteenth last year. Ahead of Silverstone in two weeks, this is a great way for the Brit to go into it, as he looks to win his home race for the first time in his career.

Valentino Rossi and his team made a change in warm up on Sunday morning which allowed him to be more consistent with a used tyre. With this gain, he was able to half-rescue Yamaha’s weekend by finishing sixth, which was beyond his expectation. Of course, it was still a disastrous weekend for Yamaha, and Rossi is still without a podium in Austria in the top class, but the gains made in warm up they will hope can transfer to Silverstone, where they were strong last year.

Dani Pedrosa took seventh place. He got beaten up quite badly in the beginning of the race, in those first two hard braking zones at turns one and three. From there he pretty much followed Rossi through the pack to seventh, helped by some strong late race pace. The critical thing for Dani is a similar one to that of Maverick Vinales, being able to go fast in the beginning. There are circuits coming up which have the potential to be front tyre races, and if Dani can find what he needs, he may yet be able to make his whole MotoGP career winning one race in each season.

Eighth place went to Alex Rins. He was running sixth for much of the race, but was caught by Rossi and Pedrosa quite quickly at the end, indicating he ran out of medium rear tyre. It seems Rins ran into the same tyre wear issues that Suzuki teammate Iannone encountered throughout the year.

Johann Zarco showed what happens when you choose the soft tyre, but can’t manage it, as he came home down in ninth, despite a decent start from the Frenchman from sixth on the grid.

Alvaro Bautista managed to recover a top ten spot despite a difficult start where, like Pedrosa, he was beaten up in those initial stages. Alvaro continues to advertise himself fairly well, as he looks to seal himself a factory Ducati deal for the 2019 Superbike World Championship.

Avintia Ducati’s Tito Rabat looked to be having a strong race, running well inside the top ten for much of the 28 laps, but suffered a one-second-per-lap drop off with his soft rear tyre in the final five laps, in which he dropped from ninth to eleventh behind both Zarco and Bautista. Still, it was a strong weekend for Rabat, who seemingly didn’t need much on the electronic side to save his top ten spot.

The Austrian GP weekend was one to forget for Maverick Vinales. After his poor qualifying on Saturday – not helped by sensor issues – he could only manage twelfth place in the race. He made his typical poor start, dropping to 16th in the first lap, but didn’t have his usual late race pace. This weekend, Vinales complained that it felt like his bike had no power in the opening stages of the race. It’s hard to justify, from the outside, why that would be the case, but anyway, Vinales will be looking to the private test for Yamaha in Misano before Silverstone as an opportunity to make some progress on the bike, but you have to wonder how much he believes he can actually find anything positive at all.

An off-track excursion in the middle of the race cost Andrea Iannone badly. After that, he set four laps which were some of the fastest of the race, but he couldn’t follow it up. The questions are being asked of Iannone again – since he signed for Aprilia for the 2019 and 2020 seasons, his form has completely disappeared. This performance didn’t do much to help this situation.

A stunning start put Bradley Smith up into the top ten at the start, but by the end of the race the British rider had dropped back to 14th. Nonetheless, a good weekend at home for KTM, picking up some more valuable World Championship points.

The final point went to Takaaki Nakagami, who was the top rookie in fifteenth, 0.9 seconds clear of Hafizh Syahrin.

Aleix Espargaro could only manage seventeenth place on the Aprilia, just ahead of a struggling Jack Miller; then Franco Morbidelli was nineteenth whilst a somewhat disgruntled Scott Redding rounded out the top twenty, a performance and result which left him very open about his opinion on the workings of the team, and also the bike.

Karel Abraham came home in twenty-first place, whilst Tom Luthi was the final finisher in 22nd.

Xavier Simeon had enjoyed his best weekend in MotoGP until lap nine of the race, when he became the only crasher of the race.

Nine in a row. That is Marc Marquez’s pole record in Sachsenring. It is a stunning statistic that will likely go unmatched by any other rider in any track. But the endlessly left-handed nature of the German Grand Prix track lends itself beautifully to Marquez’s flat tracking background, where turning left is the way of life. But that does not mean that pole position was handed to him on a silver platter, by twenty-three other riders kneeling before him. It was mostly thanks to Marquez’ approach this weekend, which has been entirely focused around race runs. He put almost a full race distance on a tyre in each of the first three free practice session, and didn’t bother to try a time attack.

This, obviously, hampered the reigning champion’s qualifying preparation, and handed a rare Saturday advantage to the rest of the pack. Most notably Jorge Lorenzo and Danilo Petrucci; the current factory Ducati rider towing his 2019 replacement to provisional pole position with just over one minute left on the clock. But finally it was Marquez who took pole, by 0.025 seconds from Petrucci, with his very final lap, the value of such a result highlighted by the #93’s celebrations.

Second place for Petrucci was probably better than he had expected. Danilo had been around the top times all weekend, and had looked good over one lap. But still, to beat both the factory Ducatis and the Yamahas in qualifying is quite an achievement – especially at a track which historically should not suit Ducati. The problem for Danilo is race pace, which he admits is a different story to qualifying, but if he can get some track position at the beginning of the race, anything is possible.

Jorge Lorenzo might be a little annoyed when he watched qualifying back when he realises he towed Petrucci round for his fastest time, something which Petrucci thanked Jorge for in the parc ferme after qualifying. Even still, at a track which no one expected the Ducati to go well at, Lorenzo is on the front row, less than one tenth off a pole position set by the most prolific pole hound both MotoGP and the Sachsenring has ever seen. But, as for Petrucci, the key to victory lies in the tyre life, an area in which Ducati seem to have regressed this year and in the scorching heat of the Saxony summer, is a big factor this weekend.

Maverick Vinales is off the front of the second row tomorrow after a solid qualifying session. Both he and teammate Valentino Rossi are suffering with wheelspin this weekend, but this time it is Vinales who is making the most of the situation, and has looked to have a little bit of pace over his more experienced teammate. The qualification was an important one for Vinales, too, because from there, even if he makes an average start, he should be in a decent position going into turn one – one from which he can recover. The number 25 is in the hunt for the podium, but like the Ducati riders the key is going to be making the tyre last.

The third and final GP18 on the grid tomorrow is Andrea Dovizioso, who is without a podium since Mugello but has looked strong this weekend, and seems to be the only one who can go with Marquez. With this in mind, it is essential that Dovi makes a good start from the middle of the second row tomorrow so that he doesn’t have too much work to do in the opening laps to be in contention. Of course, the tight layout at Sachsenring which features no real straight is difficult to overtake on, so making positions off the line will be essential for Dovi tomorrow if he wants to have a shot at Marc.

Sixth on the grid for Valentino Rossi looks quite good considering that at the end of yesterday he was seventeenth, 0.8 seconds off the pace. He has had some decent race pace, too, able to lap in the high 1’21s which looks at this stage as though it will be podium pace. There are many riders in that fight, though, including Lorenzo, Vinales and Petrucci, so Rossi will need a good start from the back of the second row if he wants to be in the podium battle. However, of all the riders theoretically in that fight, he looks to be the most fragile with the tyre, perhaps even more than Petrucci.

Cal Crutchlow has had a difficult weekend, but recovered well today to take seventh on the grid. He is another who can be in the podium fight. Andrea Iannone and an impressive Alvaro Bautista join Crutchlow on the third row.

Dani Pedrosa looks back on some kind of form, and has a good race pace with podium potential, but if he wants his first rostrum of the season he will have to recover well at the start as he qualified only tenth.

The Suzuki of Alex Rins is on the middle of the third row tomorrow, in the middle of the Honda sandwich, between retiree Pedrosa and rookie Takaaki Nakagami, who had a brilliant qualifying – making his second Q2 of his short MotoGP career.

Johann Zarco qualified fourteenth, but thanks to a six-place penalty for Aleix Espargaro – for blocking Marc Marquez in FP3 – the Frenchman will start thirteenth alongside Jack Miller and Pol Espargaro on row five.

Bradley Smith, Hafizh Syahrin and Tito Rabat make up row six, whilst Espargaro’s penalty dropped him to nineteenth, and will be joined on row seven by Scott Redding and Franco Morbidelli’s replacement, Stefan Bradl who was commentating yesterday morning before he got the shout that Morbidelli could not continue.

Tom Luthi, Karel Abraham and Xavier Simeon make up the back row of the grid, whilst Mika Kallio will not start after his huge FP2 crash yesterday in which he suffered ligament damage in his knee.

Featured Image courtesy of Gold & Goose/Red Bull Content Pool

Since 1949, world championship motorcycle racing has visited Assen, annually, without fail. This will therefore be the 69th running of the Dutch TT as a world championship race, and an important one, especially for Yamaha.
It has been way over one year since Maverick Vinales last won a race, back in Le Mans 2017, but for his teammate, Valentino Rossi, and the Iwata factory, last week marked the one-year anniversary of their last win. Furthermore, the day of the race, July 1st, will be the 63rd birthday of Yamaha’s motorcycle division; so an important weekend for Yamaha awaits. Moreover Rossi,  second in the championship,  abit twenty seven points back,  he is not theoretically, out of contention – so a win this weekend would ensure that his deficit in the championship is cut to less than one race win. Also, Assen has long been one of Rossi’s best circuits on the calendar, perhaps his absolute best, winning ten times at the Dutch track in his, now, 22 and a bit season long career, even winning in a tough 2013 season. Assen may prove one of the best circuits for the Yamaha, too. Not only does the M1 suit the fast, sweeping corners which arrive after De Strubben, and the end of the first sector, but the usually cooler Dutch climate can work in the favour of Yamaha, who tend to struggle in the heat. That said, the forecast for this weekend seems remarkably stable and warm, like it was for World Superbike earlier in the year.

Rossi himself, has had a tremendous run of races since the return to Europe. It started with a difficult Jerez, where he lucked into fifth place thanks to the triple crash of Dani Pedrosa, Jorge Lorenzo and Andrea Dovizioso, and that was followed by three third places in the next three races: Le Mans, Mugello and Barcelona. Again, he was fortunate in Barcelona that Dovizioso crashed, but with the current situation of Yamaha, capitalising on the errors of others is more important than usual. The Mugello podium was also quite special, losing the front in almost every corner throughout the race to finally take his first Italian GP podium since 2015. But what about this weekend for The Doctor? The importance of this weekend resulting in a win ultimately means little; what is important for Rossi and for Yamaha this weekend is whether the M1 will be able to cope well with the warmer conditions and whether it can conserve the tyre sufficiently in the race to be there at the end.

For the #25 side of the Movistar Yamaha garage, the situation is different. Maverick Vinales has suffered ever since he went to Yamaha in the early phases of races, even in the first races of last year, even the ones he won. Many times after tests, or after Saturdays on race weekends, Vinales has said something along the lines of ‘We tried with the full tank, we’re happy. I feel good,’ only for the next race to see precisely the same pattern as the previous ones: a poor start, an inability to overtake or ride quickly in the first laps, followed by a final five or seven laps which are as fast as anyone else out there. Once more, after the Monday test on the day following the Catalan GP two weeks ago, Vinales claimed a step had been made with his M1, that he could go to Assen and finally make the start he needs to, to be able to make use of his late-race pace. Only on Sunday will we understand whether he will be able to fight for a good result.

But ultimately, the layout of Assen works well for Yamaha. And, typically, what works for Yamaha works for Jorge Lorenzo. The winner of the previous two Grands Prix is arriving this weekend with all the confidence in the world – who wouldn’t, after dominating the last two races? However, it is excessive confidence which Lorenzo blamed for his crash in 2013 which arguably cost him the World Championship that year, but more importantly broke his left collarbone and left a minefield of mental scars which have haunted the five-times World Champion ever since, especially when returning to the origin of the damage, which makes absolute sense. In 2013 he would have won, but the broken collarbone prevented that, although it did not stop him from racing (an act of relative heroism). As a result, Lorenzo has only one MotoGP win in Assen, back in 2010 – his first championship year in the premier class. Since then, Lorenzo has only had one podium in Holland, in 2015 – he was taken out by Marco Simoncelli in 2011, by Alvaro Bautista in 2012; the collarbone prevented a win in 2013; it rained in 2014, 2016, 2017. However, consistent, dry, warm weather – on paper – suits Lorenzo perfectly. But the Ducati has suffered in Assen in recent years (with one exception which we will get to later), its stability combined with a lack of turning making it a very physical twenty six laps on Saturday, and more recently Sunday, and none of them being particularly rapid. Maybe this weekend, Lorenzo can change that, and if he can fight for the win, that is a very worrying occurrence for the opposition.

That Ducati exception, came from Danilo Petrucci last year. If it weren’t for Alex Rins getting in the way at the end of the race when Petrucci was challenging Rossi for the lead, Yamaha could have been waiting for 13 months by now for a win, and Ducati would have signed a Grand Prix winner to replace the Honda-bound Lorenzo for 2019. The rain towards the end of the race played into the hands of the #9 Pramac Ducati rider last year – having nothing to lose helped Petrucci in those conditions. But this weekend has the potential to be a difficult one for Petrux, partly for the reasons mentioned previously about the difficulties of the Desmosedici in Assen, but also because the higher temperatures, combined with the old, relatively slippery Dutch asphalt and Petrucci’s aggressive riding style could leave him without grip at the end of the race.

Andrea Dovizioso struggled last year in Holland, relying on the late rain to allow him to fight for the podium, although he ultimately missed out. Dovizioso has the unfortunate situation this weekend of being on a motorcycle that does not particularly suit Assen, with a riding style which does not particularly suit Assen. Dovi brakes very late, carries quite high entry speed, but not much apex speed, which doesn’t really work in Assen. However, the factors which could work against Petrucci have the potential to work for Dovizioso, who is the master of tyre conservation. However, you have to say that the most likely rider is Lorenzo to end Ducati’s 10-year winless run in Assen.

Marc Marquez comes into this weekend with a 27-point championship advantage and, probably, as the favourite for the race win. Marquez has five wins in Assen, including three in a row in 125cc and Moto2 between 2010 and 2012. He is without a win in Holland since 2014, but with fair reasons: his Honda was subpar in 2015 and his ability to even fight for the win was impressive enough; 2016 was a situation where he had to think of the championship whilst sat behind Jack Miller; and 2017 was a similar situation to ’16 with rain at the end bringing out the rarely seen cautious Marc Marquez, although he still threw down a huge move on Cal Crutchlow at the Ramshoek on the final lap to take third place. Fair weather and a much improved RC213V compared to previous years could put Marquez out of reach on Sunday, although excessively high temperatures could see the return of the front tyre issues that have plagued the Honda rider in the last two races.

Unusually, Dani Pedrosa is currently attracting more attention than Marc Marquez, primarily due to his contractual situation. It is seeming more and more likely that the Spaniard will go to the proposed Petronas Yamaha team for next year, but the announcement of the team has to come before Pedrosa can announce that he is riding for them – and that is if he is riding for them at all. The warm, stable weather should help Dani this weekend, who has struggled at Assen in recent years, but was strong in Barcelona and feeling better physically ahead of this weekend.

Johann Zarco will be hoping for a stronger weekend for this round, having suffered in the last races. The Frenchman was on pole for the Dutch TT last year, and fought for the victory for most of the race until he pit for a bike change anticipating an increase in the rainfall which never arrived. Another potential dark horse this weekend is Jack Miller, who took his one and only MotoGP win in Assen back in 2016.

An unusually warm weekend in Assen awaits, with birthdays and anniversaries, the potential for a second triple-winner of 2018, but who will win the first Dutch TT to be held in July?

Jorge Lorenzo qualified on pole position for the Catalan MotoGP, with a stunning final sector on Saturday afternoon. It was his first Ducati pole and gave him the perfect opportunity to put his superior pace to use, and demolish the field as he had done two weeks previously in Mugello. His only real threats came from Marc Marquez and Andrea Dovizioso, who had shared similar pace with each other across the weekend and had the potential to upset Lorenzo’s rhythm.

Marquez made a great start, whereas Lorenzo did not, and made it into first place, with the buffer of Andrea Iannone’s Suzuki between him and Lorenzo. However, the number 29 ran wide when trying to pass Marquez for the lead on lap one in turn 10, allowing Marquez back through and the #99 Ducati into second place as well. This let Lorenzo line up perfectly a pass into turn one. Marquez defended the inside as hard as he could but Lorenzo was unstoppable on the brakes.

From there, Marquez tried to stay with Lorenzo and, despite looking at ease, he was clearly on the limit because, when Dovizioso crashed behind him at turn five on lap nine, he dropped the pace and let Lorenzo go by two seconds, preserving his second place and the twenty points that come with it.
Jorge Lorenzo’s pace in this race was incredible. Between lap seven and thirteen, his lap times were separated by less than one tenth of a second, and over the whole race only 1.2 seconds separated his fastest time from his slowest. This was vintage Jorge Lorenzo and when he rides like that, there is no one person on the planet who can stop him.

Of course, demolishing the best riders in the world two races running opens up inevitable questions about a World Championship challenge. Can he do it? Probably not, but possibly. Over the past two races we have seen that Lorenzo has the pace to win races, the problem is that they were both at circuits he adores. We haven’t yet seen how he might go at a circuit he is less suited to. Another problem is that he is forty-nine points behind Marc Marquez in the championship, and it’s perhaps fair to say that taking two race wins out of Marquez and with twelve rounds left is not so easy. Furthermore, Lorenzo is not as consistent as Marquez. Where a bad weekend for Marc in the remaining races might be a fourth or a fifth, it could be a lot worse for Jorge, especially if the track conditions are neither wet nor dry. Speaking of which, Assen is next, the birthplace of Jorge Lorenzo’s wet weather demons, courtesy of the crash he suffered in the Thursday practice at the Dutch TT back in 2013 in which he broke his collarbone. In the years since 2013, Lorenzo has only managed to podium in Assen once, in 2015 on his way to World Championship number five.

After Assen comes Sachsenring, another of Lorenzo’s weaker circuits; and the other thing that Assen and Sachsenring have in common is that Marc Marquez loves them both: he has five wins in Holland and is unbeaten since 2008 in Germany. However, if Jorge can somehow keep the gap to Marquez below fifty points after the next two races, the ones which come after the summer break are far more favourable: Brno suits, both him and the bike, as does Austria. He goes well in Silverstone and the Desmosedici won there last year in the hands of Dovizioso.

Misano is the perfect place to be an enemy, Lorenzo’s favourite role! Aragon is one of his best circuits during the season and he is the only one, other than Marquez to win there since 2013. In Japan too, Lorenzo moulds Motegi into his circuit by focussing on corner exit and acceleration from low speed, Phillip Island again suits his style, so long as it does not provide changeable conditions. He has always enjoyed Sepang and he was under the lap record there in this season’s winter test and lastly Valencia is another of his best circuits. Thailand is a question mark, but in theory the Ducati should work quite well there. So, Lorenzo can fight for the championship, but the next two rounds can eliminate that possibility.

For Marc Marquez, the race was perfect. He missed the win, but that does not matter. After Mugello, Andrea Dovizioso had closed down the Spaniard’s advantage in the championship to 29 points – a recoverable margin. But after Barcelona, Dovi is precisely as far back as Lorenzo: 49 points. Furthermore, Marquez’s advantage over the factory Yamahas increased to 27 over Valentino Rossi, with Maverick Vinales a further eleven back. With Assen and Sachsenring being races Marquez can definitely win, he could have the title all but won by the summer break.

Valentino Rossi’s race proved uneventful and yet it exceeded expectations. He did not have the pace of either of the factory Ducatis or Marquez, but the crash of Dovizioso allowed the number 46 to recover a podium position, more than he could have expected. In Assen next time out, it will be almost precisely one year since he or Yamaha last won a Grand Prix, but despite this the Italian is still in mathematical championship contention. There still needs to be more found from Yamaha with the acceleration of the M1, and what they tried in the Monday test after the race did not aid that, but with what he has there is no questioning the great job Rossi is doing, and in Assen you can never discount him.

Cal Crutchlow finished fourth. He was embroiled in a mid-race battle with Dani Pedrosa and Danilo Petrucci, but upped and left just quick enough to evade the attentions of Johann Zarco and Maverick Vinales when they turned up in the fourth-place battle with just a few laps to go. In truth, it seemed that Cal could have finished on the podium in the first part of the race. He took over one second out of Valentino Rossi when he was chasing down Pedrosa and Petrucci, and dealt with the number 9 quickly, only for his charge to be halted by Pedrosa, whose defence was very strong. Crutchlow also ran wide in turn 10 at one point to hand the fifth position back to Petrucci, and that meant that it was only with seven laps to go that he passed Pedrosa for fourth place. He duly departed, but was too late to do anything about Rossi. Anyway, a fourth place finish from eighth on the grid was a good result for Crutchlow, especially as he went against the Honda grain by using the soft rear tyre.

Dani Pedrosa did a similar thing, using medium tyres front and rear, rather than the hard-hard combination which was more expected from the Hondas. This worked for him in the beginning of the race, because he had enough grip, but also enough support, to make a good pace. However, by the end of the race, he had no rear grip left – edge grip nor drive grip – so he had little to fight Crutchlow with. Even still, he positioned the bike very well, which is why it took Cal so long to get by the number 26, but in the end tyre grip won out, as usual, and Pedrosa wound up in fifth place, just ahead of Maverick Vinales.

And what a disappointing race it was for Vinales. Through the weekend he had spoken about how he had worked to be more comfortable in the race, how he felt he had found something for the first five laps. But he had no chance from the start, from which he put the M1 in reverse and fell through the pack to the back end of the top ten. Whilst his teammate, Valentino Rossi, and also Johann Zarco, are able to be aggressive in the first laps, Vinales is not, and this issue must be fixed if he is to win races. This is not a new thing, though, it was the same last year: in Qatar, he did not get going until halfway through the race. It was the same story in Argentina. In Assen he crashed trying to recover from a bad qualifying and a poor start and he could have won in Phillip Island had he started better. The difference is that now, these poor starts ruin his whole race because he cannot overtake – whereas he was able to still come through to the podium or even win in 2017 after a bad start, in 2018 he can go nowhere. The worst thing for Vinales is that it is only him having the problem, and whilst he is suffering with this, the other side of the Movistar Yamaha garage is enjoying its fourth podium of the year and third in succession. Something has to change in the #25 box, and quickly.

One positive for Vinales, is that he was three seconds clear of Johann Zarco at the end of the race, which didn’t look remotely likely before Le Mans. Since then, though, the Frenchman has become a little bit invisible. It was somewhat expected in Mugello, because Johann struggled there last year, but in Barcelona, he finished fifth last year, so only seventh place this year seems a bit odd. But, next up is Assen, and for Johann that is the scene of his first MotoGP pole position which he took in wet conditions last season. Hopefully for him he can have another good weekend this year in Holland to get his season back on track.

Danilo Petrucci had a strong start to the race, but suffered towards the end, no doubt with tyre wear, and could only manage eighth place. seven seconds behind him was Alvaro Bautista who scored his fourth successive top ten finish with ninth place, a couple of seconds clear of the factory Suzuki of Andrea Iannone who had a bizarre race, going from challenging for the lead on lap one to being 24 seconds away from the win by the end, and down in tenth place.

Pol Espargaro took KTMs best result of the season in eleventh place, ahead of Scott Redding who had a good race to twelfth – a good result after probably his best weekend on the Aprilia. Thirteenth went to Karel Abraham, who was the final finisher. Franco Morbidelli was fourteenth, but classified three laps down.

Only fourteen classified finishers leaves plenty of retirements: Mika Kallio was the first to go on lap one; then Sylvain Guintoli crashed out two laps later; Tom Luthi went one lap after Guintoli; Aleix Espargaro crashed one lap after Luthi; then came Simeon’s exit with seventeen to go; one lap before Dovi crashed; then Rins retired with thirteen laps left; two laps later Taka Nakagami folded the front in turn five whilst trying to pass Bradley Smith, and took the British rider with him; Jack Miller crashed with seven to go; Tito Rabat’ Ducati blew up one lap after Miller bowed out; and finally Hafizh Syahrin had a strange crash at turn four.

A race of attrition, then, in the premier class for the Catalan GP, but it was Jorge Lorenzo who came out on top. Can he continue this form in Assen, or will Marquez reclaim his authority in the 2018 World Championship?

After taking his first Ducati win two weeks ago in Mugello, Jorge Lorenzo today took his first Ducati pole position with a stunning 1’38.680 at the death of Q2 to beat Marc Marquez. It was Jorge’s 40^th pole position in the premier class and 66^th in all classes, and as a result we can fairly safely assume that Mr. Lorenzo is ‘back’. A shame for Ducati; they wouldn’t have minded too much if Mugello proved to be a one-off, but it seems that Lorenzo really has solved the Desmosedici puzzle, and about two weeks too late for him to remain in Ducati. But can the number 99 win tomorrow? Well, possibly. His race pace this weekend has been the best of anyone, and by a reasonable distance. However, tomorrow will show the reality of the situation regarding the effectiveness of the modified fuel tank Lorenzo had asked for so insistently. It worked in Mugello but only tomorrow will we see whether that is transferable to other tracks. If he is there until the end, it works generally, if he falls back again like in Le Mans, there is still more to be done. But, ultimately, Jorge Lorenzo should win tomorrow.

However, it won’t be entirely simple, being MotoGP an’ all. For a start, Marc Marquez is starting alongside Lorenzo on the front row of the grid in second place. Leaving aside the longest front end slide to be save in all of history, Marquez’ day was pretty flawless. Sure, it looked more difficult for him to make lap time than it was for the likes of Lorenzo, but when does Marc Marquez, or any Honda rider for that matter, look as though he isn’t on the brink of a crash at every corner? The answer would be never. From this, it is perhaps possible to say that the Honda is not necessarily a more rounded motorcycle this year, but it is perhaps better at doing what it was already good at. Either way, that save was a stunner, and so was his qualifying, coming from Q1 – after a crash in FP3 cost him a final time attack to make Q2 directly from the combined free practice times – to so nearly take the pole position; if he had done it he would have been the first rider to ever come from Q1 to make pole position in MotoGP (Tom Sykes took pole in Sepang 2016 for World Superbike after coming from Q1).

But the most important for Marquez is that he is in the front row. If he can get in front of Lorenzo and stay in front tomorrow, he can definitely take the fight to Jorge. Perhaps critically, it seems again like Marquez can run the hard rear tyre. He had a few off-throttle slides on it, but his pace was good, so it depends on two things: track temperature and whether Marc wants to take the risk. The second point is almost invalid. It’s also worth pointing out that whilst he was strong on the soft tyre, Marquez also seemed quite comfortable on the soft compound rear that most of the rest of the field seem intent on running tomorrow afternoon. Marquez looks strong, but it will be important for him to break Lorenzo’s rhythm.

Marquez proved to be the Honda meat in a Ducati front row sandwich, as Andrea Dovizioso recovered from a difficult first run in Q2 to make the front row in his second flying lap. He was a way off, three tenths separating Dovi from teammate and polesitter Lorenzo, but Dovizioso has never been a pole hound, and you know that he has been working on race pace all weekend. Again, like Marquez, it seems like he can run either the hard or the soft rear, although you get the feeling he would rather run the soft – as we know, the Ducati works best when there is good grip. With all the glory Lorenzo has enjoyed in the last races, it will be important for Dovi to re-establish his dominance in the factory Ducati garage tomorrow. He can win, but it would be a surprise.

Fourth place in qualifying went, arguably surprisingly, to Maverick Vinales. First of all, P4 for Vinales in a qualifying at Barcelona with 50 degree track temperatures shows Yamaha are making progress with the issues which the M1 has, and this is very promising for them for both tomorrow and the rest of the season. Through all the weekend, Maverick has looked good, and more importantly has been constantly favouring the soft compound rear tyre. Especially in comparison to his teammate, Valentino Rossi, who seems to be edging towards the medium rear for tomorrow. This is positive for Vinales, as the soft rear tyre could give him the grip at the start, especially if many people run the medium or hard rear tyres, as it could allow him to make a decent start, not lose too much in the first stages of the race and finally use his late race pace to charge for the podium, and a factory Yamaha podium in Barcelona would be, to say the least, unexpected.

Andrea Iannone topped FP4, despite being very inconsistent and not really making a long run, but could only manage fifth in qualifying. A middle-of-the-second-row start for Iannone tomorrow gives him a good opportunity to make a good start and put himself in the mix with the Ducatis and Marquez. In the morning’s FP3, Iannone was matching the pace of Lorenzo, high 39s. If he can repeat this tomorrow he can be in the mix for the podium or even the win, it’s just about whether he can make the soft rear tyre last in the heat.

Danilo Petrucci rounded out the second row. It would be a surprise to see Petrucci remain in contention tomorrow, being a rider who tends to be quite hard on the tyre, but opposing that idea is the pace of the Italian, who was running in the mid-1’40s today, which pretty much matches everyone bar Lorenzo and Marquez. Temperature, as for everyone, will be the critical factor for Petrux tomorrow, because of all the rider who are probably looking to run the soft rear tyre, he is the one who will suffer with it the most.

The first spot on row three will be occupied by Valentino Rossi tomorrow as he qualified seventh. The Italian was disappointed because he felt his potential was enough for the second row, but a mistake on what could have been his best lap at turn ten cost him that, and left him with row three for tomorrow. Unfortunately for Rossi, it looks like he can’t make the soft compound rear last the distance and will have to run the medium to get to the end without falling off a lap time cliff. Despite this, Rossi suggests the biggest issues will come from the front tyre, he feels that this is the limiting factor. Many riders have favoured the soft front this weekend, including Rossi, but in his fastest run in FP4, he ran with a medium front and rear. We know that Rossi always likes to focus on the race pace, so maybe he has something for tomorrow, but after Saturday his chances don’t look quite as good as one day ago.

Rossi will be joined on the third row tomorrow by Johann Zarco who has had another quiet weekend, but his pace is mid-1’40s, so he can fight for a good result tomorrow, and Tito Rabat who has been yet again very impressive on the Avintia Ducati. Surprisingly, Tito’s pace is even better than Zarco’s, and arguably even better than Rossi’s. If he can make the soft rear tyre last the distance tomorrow, which it looks like he can, Rabat could turn a fair few heads tomorrow.

Row four is an all-Honda affair, with Cal Crutchlow leading Dani Pedrosa and Takaaki Nakagami. Jack Miller, Hafizh Syahrin and a disappointing Alex Rins complete row five, whilst row six consists of Aleix Espargaro, Bradley Smith and Franco Morbidelli. Pol Espargaro was nineteenth, ahead of Scott Redding and Karel Abraham, whilst the eighth row sees Alvaro Bautista in twenty-second ahead of Mika Kallio and Tom Luthi. Sylvain Guintoli and Xavier Simeon who crashed at turn four complete the grid.

Featured Image courtesy of Ducati Media

In 2016, it was hard to imagine that ‘silly season’ could get any sillier: Jorge Lorenzo signed for Ducati, Andrea Iannone was dropped in favour of Andrea Dovizioso to accommodate the Spaniard and Aleix Espagaro was dropped by Suzuki to make space for then Moto2 star Alex Rins. Step forward, 2018.

From the beginning, it was going to be bizarre. It all started in January when Movistar Yamaha announced Maverick Vinales for 2019 and 2020, before the 2018 season had even begun. Pramac Ducati got in early, too, by announcing Moto2 title contender, Francesco Bagnaia, as one of their pilots for the next two years, again before 2018 had gotten underway. Later, Danilo Petrucci confirmed that this year would be his last in the Pramac team, as he looked for a factory ride. There was an option for Petrucci at the factory Ducati squad, but was the Borgo Panigale marque really going to let its star Spaniard go in favour of the winless Petrucci? Well, as things went from bad in Qatar to worse in Argentina, to still pretty awful in Texas for Jorge Lorenzo, things started to go Petrucci’s way, and a podium in Le Mans when Lorenzo managed only sixth place only helped the Italian’s case.

But even if Lorenzo was out, would Ducati pick Petrucci over their newly-signed-for-2018 Jack Miller, who had shown good pace and a lot of promise on the Pramac GP17? Maybe they wouldn’t pick any, some thought Andrea Iannone would slot back in alongside Dovizioso after his back-to-back podiums in Texas and Jerez aboard the factory Suzuki which it was clear he would be leaving at the end of the year when Joan Mir came into the equation.

Back to the Lorenzo/Ducati side of things, and a win last weekend in Mugello amidst strong rumours of a return to the Yamaha M1, but in a so far unnamed satellite team, allowed people to consider the possibility of the 99 remaining in Ducati. Lorenzo and Ducati both pretty much categorically denied the chance of him remaining in red next season, just hours after they had finally found the harmony they had been searching for over the last eighteen months. So where would Lorenzo go? And who would replace him?

Well, everything, as I mentioned, was looking to a Yamaha for next year, in a satellite team with Petronas, the Malaysian oil firm, as the backers, and Franco Morbidelli as the teammate. Even things in the factory team seemed to suggest that it was a possibility, with Lorenzo’s old Yamaha crew chief, Ramon Forcada, reportedly being cast out of Maverick Vinales’ crew at the end of the year, or maybe sooner after the Spaniard raised concerns about the working methods inside his side of the Movistar Yamaha garage. Together, Forcada, Lorenzo and the M1 took three MotoGP World Championship titles, and a reunion would surely offer the opportunity for more.

But when HRC announced on Tuesday that Dani Pedrosa would be leaving the Repsol Honda outfit at the end of the season, there was suddenly, seemingly, the combined weight of the universe behind the move of Jorge Lorenzo to replace the number 26 inside the factory Honda team.

Pedrosa leaving Honda was a kind of unsurprising surprise. Dani and Honda had been together for eighteen years, and over those eighteen years it has become increasingly more difficult to see the two parting ways, especially because it is difficult to find someone who could do the job of “Marc Marquez’s number two” as well as Dani Pedrosa, even if his height and weight often work against him. On the other hand, Alberto Puig, who took over as team principal from Livio Suppo over the winter, does not like Dani Pedrosa. In fact, the two dislike each other quite a lot, ever since a falling out a few years ago led Pedrosa to sack Puig as his manager. As a result of Puig’s assumption of a top role in the squad, it has been reported for some months that Pedrosa would be out of Honda at the end of the year, and so it has come to be.

And so it has come to be that Jorge Lorenzo will replace him. It’s a bizarre move, and one that many might have dreamed of, but few actually believed would ever happen. Lorenzo has struggled for one-and-a-half years on the Ducati, trying to get it to work for his super-smooth, very efficient and quite laid back riding style. He finally achieved that in Mugello, but the widely accepted assumption of MotoGP is that Jorge Lorenzo could not win on a Honda. Whilst the Desmosedici simply won’t turn, the Honda will try to dismember the pilot should they disobey a direct order. Even the immense ability of Marc Marquez struggles to tame the RC213V at times, and you only have to take a look at the size and shape of Marquez to understand the physicality involved in riding the Honda to its limits.

One thing you might say Jorge Lorenzo does not have is vast amounts of physical strength, especially not in the upper body. Jack Miller has commented that he has lost a lot of weight from his upper body this year because, where he was steering the Honda with his arms, he is making the Ducati work with his legs. This would be a big change for Lorenzo, who has moved from the least physically demanding bike on the grid, to one which is still comparatively non-physical compared to the Honda – and Lorenzo is not known for high intensity training regimes.

Even if the physicality of the RCV proves to be little, if any, barrier to Lorenzo’s success, there are three other major factors which could prove problematic in this move for the Spaniard.

The first is the bike’s characteristic. Apart from being by far the most physical bike on the grid to ride, even this year where it has improved a lot, the Honda has another big characteristic which many assume will hinder Lorenzo. The bike likes to stop, and then it likes to go. Marc Marquez has made all of his time up, since he came to MotoGP, on the brakes, and this only increased in 2015, ‘16 and ‘17 when he had a motor which would not accelerate. He couldn’t get onto the straight fast, so he had to get off it fast. In 2015, this cost him the championship because he crashed too much trying to make up time on the brakes. In the years since, Marquez has worked out when it is necessary to push the limit on the front, and when it is not; when he can, and when he can’t. In comparison, Dani Pedrosa does not push the limit of the front on every single corner, on every single lap, because he does not have the confidence to do so, and instead of leading the championship  by twenty-three points after six rounds having scored three wins and a further podium [which Marquez his team mate is], Pedrosa has scored no podiums, and no wins this season. Pushing the front on the Honda is crucial – if you cannot do that then you will struggle to win. Jorge Lorenzo does not like to push the front in the braking zone to get the bike stopped, turned, and then fired out; he likes to roll through the corners in that wonderful 250 style of his with high apex speed and a lot of momentum.

Since the Ducati does not like to turn, Lorenzo has had to adapt his style into something more similar to that of a typical MotoGP rider, running higher entry speed and stopping the bike more in the middle of the corner. But he has been able to do that with Ducati because the bike has good braking stability, something the Honda does not have. You can see this with Marquez, who, whilst winning races, is sliding the front tyre into every corner, still trying to make up time on the brakes, but skating the tyre in such a way that it makes the bike turn. He is on the verge of crashing in every corner, but he knows how to avoid it. If Jorge is to win on the Honda, it might be the case that he has to learn the same lessons as Marc, that he has to learn how to be on the limit with the front in every braking zone to make lap time. Given how difficult it has been for the Mallorcan to adapt to the Ducati, it is hard to see this happening, but it is not impossible.

Of course, there is one obvious way for Jorge to not have to ride the bike like Marc. That way is to make the bike his, or make the bike like a Yamaha, essentially. There is little reason to suggest he will be able to do this, but there is the theory that Marc Marquez is not such a dab hand at developing a motorcycle and, well, he’s only been in Grands Prix since 2008 and MotoGP since 2013 – he is 25-years-old, so who can blame him for not being a great development rider? Anyway, together with this is the letting go of Pedrosa by Honda, which leaves the hole of a development rider to be filled, assuming that that was one of Dani’s roles in the team. Honda’s other choices for this role were Joan Mir, a Moto2 rider; and Andrea Iannone, who tends to crash a bit and does not give the impression of someone who is a development expert. Lorenzo, therefore, fits the bill fairly nicely. This creates a problem for Honda, though, at least in the relatively short-term. If Jorge Lorenzo is given the job of developing the motorcycle, he will turn it into an M1, which will be something opposite to what Marc Marquez wants. Marquez wants, is pretty much, what he has currently: something which he can fire into a corner, and which is ready to fire him out of said corner when he is ready. Lorenzo wants what he had at Yamaha, something which has reasonable power, reasonable acceleration, reasonable braking stability, but most importantly has an amazing chassis which can roll through a corner with little weight on the front tyre whilst holding high corner speed and a lot of lean angle. Now, the major obstacle of making Jorge’s dream a reality in Ducati has been that the bike, for millennia, has not turned, not at all. In Honda, the obstacle is a different one.

The obstacle in Honda is not that the bike turns, but that it turns violently. This violence is what Lorenzo would need to cure to make the RC213V his own. But the things which make it violent are the things which allow Marquez to be so fast, such as the incredibly short wheelbase which allows for very good, quick, rotation in the middle of the corner.

So herein is the problem for Honda: listen to Jorge and develop the RC2(50cc)13V, or listen to Marquez and potentially end up in the same hole they have just dug themselves out of. Baring in mind that a middle ground wouldn’t really work for anyone, somebody will be disappointed.

That somebody will likely be Lorenzo, which is problem number two. Marc is Honda’s golden boy, and well he might be, with four titles in the last five seasons, two of which have been on subpar machinery. Why would Honda listen to Lorenzo over Marquez for development direction? To go down the path of supporting Jorge fully would mean an almost 180-degree switch in design philosophies, whereas continuing to support Marc would lead to (pretty much) guaranteed titles and little-to-no change in design philosophy. Either way, on the face of it the decision for Honda is a difficult one, especially because of how much they are likely to be paying Lorenzo.

However, there is the another way to look at this signing by HRC; as merely a tactical one, in that they are taking away one rival from Marc Marquez. Honda are not stupid, they know that on an M1, Lorenzo can fight for the title, but Lorenzo on an RC213V is an unknown quantity, and likely a weaker one than the alternative (Lorenzo with Yamaha). So, maybe Honda were just trying to make the next two World Championships just a little bit easier for Marquez to win – although anyone who discounts Maverick Vinales, Valentino Rossi or Andrea Dovizioso is asking to be made a fool. With better luck Dovi could have just be nine points behind Marc, Maverick Vinales proved at the beginning of last season that he has the potential, when the bike is working how he wants it to, to dominate the field, and over the last twenty three years one lesson which has been learnt is that Valentino Rossi will always be in the mix, last Sunday was a prime example of that.

The third major problem for Lorenzo is that he will have to beat Marc Marquez on equal machinery. That has only happened a handful of times, and by people either better suited to the Honda or more accustomed to its behaviour. Whichever way you look at it, this is a huge risk for Lorenzo, but if he pulls it off he will leave fans with no choice but to accept him as one of the greatest motorcycle racers of all time.

Of course, Lorenzo’s departure indeed left a gap to be filled at Ducati. They chose Danilo Petrucci, the safe bet. Petrux(Petrucci) has been riding the Desmosedici since 2015, and is well attuned to it, and to the factory. Miller was an option, but remaining inside the vibrant, relaxed atmosphere of the Pramac team next year on factory-spec machinery should give the Aussie the platform he needs to prove why he deserves to be in the factory team from 2020. It is also worth pointing out that Petrucci’s deal is only for one year, so Miller heading to the factory squad in 2020 is definitely a possibility. In the meantime, though, you have to hand it to Petrucci – if you had said to someone in the paddock back in 2012 when Petrucci was at the back of the grid on the Ioda-Suter CRT bike, having come from European Superstock straight to MotoGP, that he will be riding a factory Ducati in seven years’ time you would have been laughed out of meaning, but Danilo has put the work in, especially since he was picked up by Pramac in 2015, and got his just rewards. He has been fortunate, too, because if he didn’t get the Ducati ride, he would have been fighting against Iannone for the second slot at Aprilia. And, of course, there is no reason to assume that Jack Miller is as good as guaranteed already for the 2020 factory Ducati seat, Petrucci has been signed because Ducati think he can do a job involving winning races and, presumably, fighting for the championship. He will have the personnel next year to go with the machinery to allow him to achieve those targets, then he just has to do it.

So, what about Suzuki? Well, this is where it gets tricky. Dani Pedrosa is available, and they have one bike left, with Rins signed for the next two seasons already. They have one option other than Pedrosa, and it is widely accepted that they have taken this option, and that is Joan Mir. It is hard to believe that Suzuki would turn down Pedrosa in favour of Mir when they already have one young talent in the shape of Rins, who has already started to give them results, much as Maverick Vinales did in 2016. But Rins cannot be expected to be a team leader, surely, he will be only in his third season in the premier class, and let’s remember that Rins’ first season in MotoGP was plagued, in the first part, by injury. Adding Mir to the team will make it very hard to develop the bike, and they could find themselves getting lost next year, especially if they have no concessions, which, judging by the pace they’ve shown so far this season, they won’t have. On the plus side (if they have done or do sign Mir), any success is heightened as a result of lowered expectations and anything disappointing can be cast aside with the affirmation that their riders are inexperienced as well as the bike’s infantility.

So, with Mir almost certainly in Suzuki, that leaves Pedrosa with either: the second Tech3 KTM ride, the second Aprilia ride, a satellite Ducati or one of the satellite Yamahas. Apart from it doesn’t, because Hafizh Syahrin has been confirmed to be staying with Tech3 for their switch to KTM next season, so that door is firmly shut. Next, Aprilia. Again, unlikely, because Andrea Iannone looks a shoe in for this ride, which is a confusing one, somewhat, but we’ll discuss that later. A satellite Ducati? This is Dani Pedrosa, he doesn’t need to be battling for fifteenth. So, a satellite Yamaha it is, then, right? Well, maybe not. Apart from Pedrosa’s presumed loyalty to Honda potentially getting in the way of him moving to Yamaha, there is one other, pretty major, factor: there are no satellite Yamahas. As yet, the Iwata factory have not signed anyone to field the third and fourth M1s for next season, which is a little bit important – if there are no bikes you can’t ride them. The cut-off for Yamaha to sort out whoever is going to field their satellite bikes, if anyone, for 2019 is the end of June. Pedrosa announced that he will give further updates on his future in Barcelona. So, if Dani Pedrosa starts talking in the Montmelo press conference before anything about satellite Yamahas has been mentioned, expect to be saying goodbye to the ‘little samurai’ in Valencia this November.

Back to the Iannone to Aprilia situation; it is confusing, Why? Well in part, it is confusing because Aprilia have complained that Aleix Espargaro is not a good development rider because he does one hot lap, gritting his teeth, and then doesn’t understand how he went so fast, whereas their current second rider, Scott Redding, provides good information but they can’t do anything with it because they have no money and no resources. Furthermore, they have already signed Espargaro for 2019 and 2020, meaning it’s Scott Redding against Andrea Iannone, realistically, for that second seat. The factory favour Iannone, mostly because he looks a lot faster right now than Scott Redding, but like Aleix, Andrea is perhaps not the greatest development rider. It could be a dangerous path which Aprilia are venturing down. But the move would be a little bit weird for one other,  for a very simple reason: Iannone deserves better than Aprilia. Admittedly, he did himself no favours by only half-arsing most of last season, but he has proven this year that when he is comfortable with the bike he can be incredibly fast – it is a shame he gave Suzuki a reason to sack him. Equally, we saw in his Ducati years that when he is in an Italian team, Iannone can flourish, so perhaps this could work well for The Maniac. Of course, it is yet to be confirmed, but it is likely to happen.

If it does, and Mir is confirmed in Suzuki like the majority of people expect, that is all of the factory seats done and dusted. What then is left is the two Angel Nieto Team bikes, the second Avintia Ducati – Xavier Simeon already has a contract with them for next year- and the two Marc VDS bikes, or whatever they become next year.

And if Iannone does go to Suzuki, Redding will most likely be off to World Superbike. His fellow Brit, Bradley Smith, will probably retire, because he doesn’t want to go to World Superbike and there does not seem to be much interest in him from any of the MotoGP teams with seats left available. Franco Morbidelli’s future is uncertain thanks to the instability currently engulfing the Marc VDS team, but if satellite Yamahas become available there will likely be a big push to get the reigning Moto2 World Champion aboard one of them. Karel Abraham and Alvaro Bautista are both supposedly in talks with World Superbike teams, although the recent form of Bautista (three top tens in the last three races) may have helped to secure his Grand Prix future. Tito Rabat has had a great year so far, and it would be a surprise (and a shame) to see him dropped from Avintia. But, in addition, the current form of Lorenzo Baldassarri in Moto2, could well be catching the attention of some MotoGP teams and, again, if the satellite Yamahas become available expect a big push from VR46 to get their man aboard one of them.

There is still a reasonable amount to be decided for next year yet but the revelations of the week following the Italian Grand Prix have brought all-new levels of intrigue and anticipation for 2019.