Category: MotoGp

Since 1949, world championship motorcycle racing has visited Assen, annually, without fail. This will therefore be the 69th running of the Dutch TT as a world championship race, and an important one, especially for Yamaha.
It has been way over one year since Maverick Vinales last won a race, back in Le Mans 2017, but for his teammate, Valentino Rossi, and the Iwata factory, last week marked the one-year anniversary of their last win. Furthermore, the day of the race, July 1st, will be the 63rd birthday of Yamaha’s motorcycle division; so an important weekend for Yamaha awaits. Moreover Rossi,  second in the championship,  abit twenty seven points back,  he is not theoretically, out of contention – so a win this weekend would ensure that his deficit in the championship is cut to less than one race win. Also, Assen has long been one of Rossi’s best circuits on the calendar, perhaps his absolute best, winning ten times at the Dutch track in his, now, 22 and a bit season long career, even winning in a tough 2013 season. Assen may prove one of the best circuits for the Yamaha, too. Not only does the M1 suit the fast, sweeping corners which arrive after De Strubben, and the end of the first sector, but the usually cooler Dutch climate can work in the favour of Yamaha, who tend to struggle in the heat. That said, the forecast for this weekend seems remarkably stable and warm, like it was for World Superbike earlier in the year.

Rossi himself, has had a tremendous run of races since the return to Europe. It started with a difficult Jerez, where he lucked into fifth place thanks to the triple crash of Dani Pedrosa, Jorge Lorenzo and Andrea Dovizioso, and that was followed by three third places in the next three races: Le Mans, Mugello and Barcelona. Again, he was fortunate in Barcelona that Dovizioso crashed, but with the current situation of Yamaha, capitalising on the errors of others is more important than usual. The Mugello podium was also quite special, losing the front in almost every corner throughout the race to finally take his first Italian GP podium since 2015. But what about this weekend for The Doctor? The importance of this weekend resulting in a win ultimately means little; what is important for Rossi and for Yamaha this weekend is whether the M1 will be able to cope well with the warmer conditions and whether it can conserve the tyre sufficiently in the race to be there at the end.

For the #25 side of the Movistar Yamaha garage, the situation is different. Maverick Vinales has suffered ever since he went to Yamaha in the early phases of races, even in the first races of last year, even the ones he won. Many times after tests, or after Saturdays on race weekends, Vinales has said something along the lines of ‘We tried with the full tank, we’re happy. I feel good,’ only for the next race to see precisely the same pattern as the previous ones: a poor start, an inability to overtake or ride quickly in the first laps, followed by a final five or seven laps which are as fast as anyone else out there. Once more, after the Monday test on the day following the Catalan GP two weeks ago, Vinales claimed a step had been made with his M1, that he could go to Assen and finally make the start he needs to, to be able to make use of his late-race pace. Only on Sunday will we understand whether he will be able to fight for a good result.

But ultimately, the layout of Assen works well for Yamaha. And, typically, what works for Yamaha works for Jorge Lorenzo. The winner of the previous two Grands Prix is arriving this weekend with all the confidence in the world – who wouldn’t, after dominating the last two races? However, it is excessive confidence which Lorenzo blamed for his crash in 2013 which arguably cost him the World Championship that year, but more importantly broke his left collarbone and left a minefield of mental scars which have haunted the five-times World Champion ever since, especially when returning to the origin of the damage, which makes absolute sense. In 2013 he would have won, but the broken collarbone prevented that, although it did not stop him from racing (an act of relative heroism). As a result, Lorenzo has only one MotoGP win in Assen, back in 2010 – his first championship year in the premier class. Since then, Lorenzo has only had one podium in Holland, in 2015 – he was taken out by Marco Simoncelli in 2011, by Alvaro Bautista in 2012; the collarbone prevented a win in 2013; it rained in 2014, 2016, 2017. However, consistent, dry, warm weather – on paper – suits Lorenzo perfectly. But the Ducati has suffered in Assen in recent years (with one exception which we will get to later), its stability combined with a lack of turning making it a very physical twenty six laps on Saturday, and more recently Sunday, and none of them being particularly rapid. Maybe this weekend, Lorenzo can change that, and if he can fight for the win, that is a very worrying occurrence for the opposition.

That Ducati exception, came from Danilo Petrucci last year. If it weren’t for Alex Rins getting in the way at the end of the race when Petrucci was challenging Rossi for the lead, Yamaha could have been waiting for 13 months by now for a win, and Ducati would have signed a Grand Prix winner to replace the Honda-bound Lorenzo for 2019. The rain towards the end of the race played into the hands of the #9 Pramac Ducati rider last year – having nothing to lose helped Petrucci in those conditions. But this weekend has the potential to be a difficult one for Petrux, partly for the reasons mentioned previously about the difficulties of the Desmosedici in Assen, but also because the higher temperatures, combined with the old, relatively slippery Dutch asphalt and Petrucci’s aggressive riding style could leave him without grip at the end of the race.

Andrea Dovizioso struggled last year in Holland, relying on the late rain to allow him to fight for the podium, although he ultimately missed out. Dovizioso has the unfortunate situation this weekend of being on a motorcycle that does not particularly suit Assen, with a riding style which does not particularly suit Assen. Dovi brakes very late, carries quite high entry speed, but not much apex speed, which doesn’t really work in Assen. However, the factors which could work against Petrucci have the potential to work for Dovizioso, who is the master of tyre conservation. However, you have to say that the most likely rider is Lorenzo to end Ducati’s 10-year winless run in Assen.

Marc Marquez comes into this weekend with a 27-point championship advantage and, probably, as the favourite for the race win. Marquez has five wins in Assen, including three in a row in 125cc and Moto2 between 2010 and 2012. He is without a win in Holland since 2014, but with fair reasons: his Honda was subpar in 2015 and his ability to even fight for the win was impressive enough; 2016 was a situation where he had to think of the championship whilst sat behind Jack Miller; and 2017 was a similar situation to ’16 with rain at the end bringing out the rarely seen cautious Marc Marquez, although he still threw down a huge move on Cal Crutchlow at the Ramshoek on the final lap to take third place. Fair weather and a much improved RC213V compared to previous years could put Marquez out of reach on Sunday, although excessively high temperatures could see the return of the front tyre issues that have plagued the Honda rider in the last two races.

Unusually, Dani Pedrosa is currently attracting more attention than Marc Marquez, primarily due to his contractual situation. It is seeming more and more likely that the Spaniard will go to the proposed Petronas Yamaha team for next year, but the announcement of the team has to come before Pedrosa can announce that he is riding for them – and that is if he is riding for them at all. The warm, stable weather should help Dani this weekend, who has struggled at Assen in recent years, but was strong in Barcelona and feeling better physically ahead of this weekend.

Johann Zarco will be hoping for a stronger weekend for this round, having suffered in the last races. The Frenchman was on pole for the Dutch TT last year, and fought for the victory for most of the race until he pit for a bike change anticipating an increase in the rainfall which never arrived. Another potential dark horse this weekend is Jack Miller, who took his one and only MotoGP win in Assen back in 2016.

An unusually warm weekend in Assen awaits, with birthdays and anniversaries, the potential for a second triple-winner of 2018, but who will win the first Dutch TT to be held in July?

Jorge Lorenzo qualified on pole position for the Catalan MotoGP, with a stunning final sector on Saturday afternoon. It was his first Ducati pole and gave him the perfect opportunity to put his superior pace to use, and demolish the field as he had done two weeks previously in Mugello. His only real threats came from Marc Marquez and Andrea Dovizioso, who had shared similar pace with each other across the weekend and had the potential to upset Lorenzo’s rhythm.

Marquez made a great start, whereas Lorenzo did not, and made it into first place, with the buffer of Andrea Iannone’s Suzuki between him and Lorenzo. However, the number 29 ran wide when trying to pass Marquez for the lead on lap one in turn 10, allowing Marquez back through and the #99 Ducati into second place as well. This let Lorenzo line up perfectly a pass into turn one. Marquez defended the inside as hard as he could but Lorenzo was unstoppable on the brakes.

From there, Marquez tried to stay with Lorenzo and, despite looking at ease, he was clearly on the limit because, when Dovizioso crashed behind him at turn five on lap nine, he dropped the pace and let Lorenzo go by two seconds, preserving his second place and the twenty points that come with it.
Jorge Lorenzo’s pace in this race was incredible. Between lap seven and thirteen, his lap times were separated by less than one tenth of a second, and over the whole race only 1.2 seconds separated his fastest time from his slowest. This was vintage Jorge Lorenzo and when he rides like that, there is no one person on the planet who can stop him.

Of course, demolishing the best riders in the world two races running opens up inevitable questions about a World Championship challenge. Can he do it? Probably not, but possibly. Over the past two races we have seen that Lorenzo has the pace to win races, the problem is that they were both at circuits he adores. We haven’t yet seen how he might go at a circuit he is less suited to. Another problem is that he is forty-nine points behind Marc Marquez in the championship, and it’s perhaps fair to say that taking two race wins out of Marquez and with twelve rounds left is not so easy. Furthermore, Lorenzo is not as consistent as Marquez. Where a bad weekend for Marc in the remaining races might be a fourth or a fifth, it could be a lot worse for Jorge, especially if the track conditions are neither wet nor dry. Speaking of which, Assen is next, the birthplace of Jorge Lorenzo’s wet weather demons, courtesy of the crash he suffered in the Thursday practice at the Dutch TT back in 2013 in which he broke his collarbone. In the years since 2013, Lorenzo has only managed to podium in Assen once, in 2015 on his way to World Championship number five.

After Assen comes Sachsenring, another of Lorenzo’s weaker circuits; and the other thing that Assen and Sachsenring have in common is that Marc Marquez loves them both: he has five wins in Holland and is unbeaten since 2008 in Germany. However, if Jorge can somehow keep the gap to Marquez below fifty points after the next two races, the ones which come after the summer break are far more favourable: Brno suits, both him and the bike, as does Austria. He goes well in Silverstone and the Desmosedici won there last year in the hands of Dovizioso.

Misano is the perfect place to be an enemy, Lorenzo’s favourite role! Aragon is one of his best circuits during the season and he is the only one, other than Marquez to win there since 2013. In Japan too, Lorenzo moulds Motegi into his circuit by focussing on corner exit and acceleration from low speed, Phillip Island again suits his style, so long as it does not provide changeable conditions. He has always enjoyed Sepang and he was under the lap record there in this season’s winter test and lastly Valencia is another of his best circuits. Thailand is a question mark, but in theory the Ducati should work quite well there. So, Lorenzo can fight for the championship, but the next two rounds can eliminate that possibility.

For Marc Marquez, the race was perfect. He missed the win, but that does not matter. After Mugello, Andrea Dovizioso had closed down the Spaniard’s advantage in the championship to 29 points – a recoverable margin. But after Barcelona, Dovi is precisely as far back as Lorenzo: 49 points. Furthermore, Marquez’s advantage over the factory Yamahas increased to 27 over Valentino Rossi, with Maverick Vinales a further eleven back. With Assen and Sachsenring being races Marquez can definitely win, he could have the title all but won by the summer break.

Valentino Rossi’s race proved uneventful and yet it exceeded expectations. He did not have the pace of either of the factory Ducatis or Marquez, but the crash of Dovizioso allowed the number 46 to recover a podium position, more than he could have expected. In Assen next time out, it will be almost precisely one year since he or Yamaha last won a Grand Prix, but despite this the Italian is still in mathematical championship contention. There still needs to be more found from Yamaha with the acceleration of the M1, and what they tried in the Monday test after the race did not aid that, but with what he has there is no questioning the great job Rossi is doing, and in Assen you can never discount him.

Cal Crutchlow finished fourth. He was embroiled in a mid-race battle with Dani Pedrosa and Danilo Petrucci, but upped and left just quick enough to evade the attentions of Johann Zarco and Maverick Vinales when they turned up in the fourth-place battle with just a few laps to go. In truth, it seemed that Cal could have finished on the podium in the first part of the race. He took over one second out of Valentino Rossi when he was chasing down Pedrosa and Petrucci, and dealt with the number 9 quickly, only for his charge to be halted by Pedrosa, whose defence was very strong. Crutchlow also ran wide in turn 10 at one point to hand the fifth position back to Petrucci, and that meant that it was only with seven laps to go that he passed Pedrosa for fourth place. He duly departed, but was too late to do anything about Rossi. Anyway, a fourth place finish from eighth on the grid was a good result for Crutchlow, especially as he went against the Honda grain by using the soft rear tyre.

Dani Pedrosa did a similar thing, using medium tyres front and rear, rather than the hard-hard combination which was more expected from the Hondas. This worked for him in the beginning of the race, because he had enough grip, but also enough support, to make a good pace. However, by the end of the race, he had no rear grip left – edge grip nor drive grip – so he had little to fight Crutchlow with. Even still, he positioned the bike very well, which is why it took Cal so long to get by the number 26, but in the end tyre grip won out, as usual, and Pedrosa wound up in fifth place, just ahead of Maverick Vinales.

And what a disappointing race it was for Vinales. Through the weekend he had spoken about how he had worked to be more comfortable in the race, how he felt he had found something for the first five laps. But he had no chance from the start, from which he put the M1 in reverse and fell through the pack to the back end of the top ten. Whilst his teammate, Valentino Rossi, and also Johann Zarco, are able to be aggressive in the first laps, Vinales is not, and this issue must be fixed if he is to win races. This is not a new thing, though, it was the same last year: in Qatar, he did not get going until halfway through the race. It was the same story in Argentina. In Assen he crashed trying to recover from a bad qualifying and a poor start and he could have won in Phillip Island had he started better. The difference is that now, these poor starts ruin his whole race because he cannot overtake – whereas he was able to still come through to the podium or even win in 2017 after a bad start, in 2018 he can go nowhere. The worst thing for Vinales is that it is only him having the problem, and whilst he is suffering with this, the other side of the Movistar Yamaha garage is enjoying its fourth podium of the year and third in succession. Something has to change in the #25 box, and quickly.

One positive for Vinales, is that he was three seconds clear of Johann Zarco at the end of the race, which didn’t look remotely likely before Le Mans. Since then, though, the Frenchman has become a little bit invisible. It was somewhat expected in Mugello, because Johann struggled there last year, but in Barcelona, he finished fifth last year, so only seventh place this year seems a bit odd. But, next up is Assen, and for Johann that is the scene of his first MotoGP pole position which he took in wet conditions last season. Hopefully for him he can have another good weekend this year in Holland to get his season back on track.

Danilo Petrucci had a strong start to the race, but suffered towards the end, no doubt with tyre wear, and could only manage eighth place. seven seconds behind him was Alvaro Bautista who scored his fourth successive top ten finish with ninth place, a couple of seconds clear of the factory Suzuki of Andrea Iannone who had a bizarre race, going from challenging for the lead on lap one to being 24 seconds away from the win by the end, and down in tenth place.

Pol Espargaro took KTMs best result of the season in eleventh place, ahead of Scott Redding who had a good race to twelfth – a good result after probably his best weekend on the Aprilia. Thirteenth went to Karel Abraham, who was the final finisher. Franco Morbidelli was fourteenth, but classified three laps down.

Only fourteen classified finishers leaves plenty of retirements: Mika Kallio was the first to go on lap one; then Sylvain Guintoli crashed out two laps later; Tom Luthi went one lap after Guintoli; Aleix Espargaro crashed one lap after Luthi; then came Simeon’s exit with seventeen to go; one lap before Dovi crashed; then Rins retired with thirteen laps left; two laps later Taka Nakagami folded the front in turn five whilst trying to pass Bradley Smith, and took the British rider with him; Jack Miller crashed with seven to go; Tito Rabat’ Ducati blew up one lap after Miller bowed out; and finally Hafizh Syahrin had a strange crash at turn four.

A race of attrition, then, in the premier class for the Catalan GP, but it was Jorge Lorenzo who came out on top. Can he continue this form in Assen, or will Marquez reclaim his authority in the 2018 World Championship?

After taking his first Ducati win two weeks ago in Mugello, Jorge Lorenzo today took his first Ducati pole position with a stunning 1’38.680 at the death of Q2 to beat Marc Marquez. It was Jorge’s 40^th pole position in the premier class and 66^th in all classes, and as a result we can fairly safely assume that Mr. Lorenzo is ‘back’. A shame for Ducati; they wouldn’t have minded too much if Mugello proved to be a one-off, but it seems that Lorenzo really has solved the Desmosedici puzzle, and about two weeks too late for him to remain in Ducati. But can the number 99 win tomorrow? Well, possibly. His race pace this weekend has been the best of anyone, and by a reasonable distance. However, tomorrow will show the reality of the situation regarding the effectiveness of the modified fuel tank Lorenzo had asked for so insistently. It worked in Mugello but only tomorrow will we see whether that is transferable to other tracks. If he is there until the end, it works generally, if he falls back again like in Le Mans, there is still more to be done. But, ultimately, Jorge Lorenzo should win tomorrow.

However, it won’t be entirely simple, being MotoGP an’ all. For a start, Marc Marquez is starting alongside Lorenzo on the front row of the grid in second place. Leaving aside the longest front end slide to be save in all of history, Marquez’ day was pretty flawless. Sure, it looked more difficult for him to make lap time than it was for the likes of Lorenzo, but when does Marc Marquez, or any Honda rider for that matter, look as though he isn’t on the brink of a crash at every corner? The answer would be never. From this, it is perhaps possible to say that the Honda is not necessarily a more rounded motorcycle this year, but it is perhaps better at doing what it was already good at. Either way, that save was a stunner, and so was his qualifying, coming from Q1 – after a crash in FP3 cost him a final time attack to make Q2 directly from the combined free practice times – to so nearly take the pole position; if he had done it he would have been the first rider to ever come from Q1 to make pole position in MotoGP (Tom Sykes took pole in Sepang 2016 for World Superbike after coming from Q1).

But the most important for Marquez is that he is in the front row. If he can get in front of Lorenzo and stay in front tomorrow, he can definitely take the fight to Jorge. Perhaps critically, it seems again like Marquez can run the hard rear tyre. He had a few off-throttle slides on it, but his pace was good, so it depends on two things: track temperature and whether Marc wants to take the risk. The second point is almost invalid. It’s also worth pointing out that whilst he was strong on the soft tyre, Marquez also seemed quite comfortable on the soft compound rear that most of the rest of the field seem intent on running tomorrow afternoon. Marquez looks strong, but it will be important for him to break Lorenzo’s rhythm.

Marquez proved to be the Honda meat in a Ducati front row sandwich, as Andrea Dovizioso recovered from a difficult first run in Q2 to make the front row in his second flying lap. He was a way off, three tenths separating Dovi from teammate and polesitter Lorenzo, but Dovizioso has never been a pole hound, and you know that he has been working on race pace all weekend. Again, like Marquez, it seems like he can run either the hard or the soft rear, although you get the feeling he would rather run the soft – as we know, the Ducati works best when there is good grip. With all the glory Lorenzo has enjoyed in the last races, it will be important for Dovi to re-establish his dominance in the factory Ducati garage tomorrow. He can win, but it would be a surprise.

Fourth place in qualifying went, arguably surprisingly, to Maverick Vinales. First of all, P4 for Vinales in a qualifying at Barcelona with 50 degree track temperatures shows Yamaha are making progress with the issues which the M1 has, and this is very promising for them for both tomorrow and the rest of the season. Through all the weekend, Maverick has looked good, and more importantly has been constantly favouring the soft compound rear tyre. Especially in comparison to his teammate, Valentino Rossi, who seems to be edging towards the medium rear for tomorrow. This is positive for Vinales, as the soft rear tyre could give him the grip at the start, especially if many people run the medium or hard rear tyres, as it could allow him to make a decent start, not lose too much in the first stages of the race and finally use his late race pace to charge for the podium, and a factory Yamaha podium in Barcelona would be, to say the least, unexpected.

Andrea Iannone topped FP4, despite being very inconsistent and not really making a long run, but could only manage fifth in qualifying. A middle-of-the-second-row start for Iannone tomorrow gives him a good opportunity to make a good start and put himself in the mix with the Ducatis and Marquez. In the morning’s FP3, Iannone was matching the pace of Lorenzo, high 39s. If he can repeat this tomorrow he can be in the mix for the podium or even the win, it’s just about whether he can make the soft rear tyre last in the heat.

Danilo Petrucci rounded out the second row. It would be a surprise to see Petrucci remain in contention tomorrow, being a rider who tends to be quite hard on the tyre, but opposing that idea is the pace of the Italian, who was running in the mid-1’40s today, which pretty much matches everyone bar Lorenzo and Marquez. Temperature, as for everyone, will be the critical factor for Petrux tomorrow, because of all the rider who are probably looking to run the soft rear tyre, he is the one who will suffer with it the most.

The first spot on row three will be occupied by Valentino Rossi tomorrow as he qualified seventh. The Italian was disappointed because he felt his potential was enough for the second row, but a mistake on what could have been his best lap at turn ten cost him that, and left him with row three for tomorrow. Unfortunately for Rossi, it looks like he can’t make the soft compound rear last the distance and will have to run the medium to get to the end without falling off a lap time cliff. Despite this, Rossi suggests the biggest issues will come from the front tyre, he feels that this is the limiting factor. Many riders have favoured the soft front this weekend, including Rossi, but in his fastest run in FP4, he ran with a medium front and rear. We know that Rossi always likes to focus on the race pace, so maybe he has something for tomorrow, but after Saturday his chances don’t look quite as good as one day ago.

Rossi will be joined on the third row tomorrow by Johann Zarco who has had another quiet weekend, but his pace is mid-1’40s, so he can fight for a good result tomorrow, and Tito Rabat who has been yet again very impressive on the Avintia Ducati. Surprisingly, Tito’s pace is even better than Zarco’s, and arguably even better than Rossi’s. If he can make the soft rear tyre last the distance tomorrow, which it looks like he can, Rabat could turn a fair few heads tomorrow.

Row four is an all-Honda affair, with Cal Crutchlow leading Dani Pedrosa and Takaaki Nakagami. Jack Miller, Hafizh Syahrin and a disappointing Alex Rins complete row five, whilst row six consists of Aleix Espargaro, Bradley Smith and Franco Morbidelli. Pol Espargaro was nineteenth, ahead of Scott Redding and Karel Abraham, whilst the eighth row sees Alvaro Bautista in twenty-second ahead of Mika Kallio and Tom Luthi. Sylvain Guintoli and Xavier Simeon who crashed at turn four complete the grid.

Featured Image courtesy of Ducati Media

In 2016, it was hard to imagine that ‘silly season’ could get any sillier: Jorge Lorenzo signed for Ducati, Andrea Iannone was dropped in favour of Andrea Dovizioso to accommodate the Spaniard and Aleix Espagaro was dropped by Suzuki to make space for then Moto2 star Alex Rins. Step forward, 2018.

From the beginning, it was going to be bizarre. It all started in January when Movistar Yamaha announced Maverick Vinales for 2019 and 2020, before the 2018 season had even begun. Pramac Ducati got in early, too, by announcing Moto2 title contender, Francesco Bagnaia, as one of their pilots for the next two years, again before 2018 had gotten underway. Later, Danilo Petrucci confirmed that this year would be his last in the Pramac team, as he looked for a factory ride. There was an option for Petrucci at the factory Ducati squad, but was the Borgo Panigale marque really going to let its star Spaniard go in favour of the winless Petrucci? Well, as things went from bad in Qatar to worse in Argentina, to still pretty awful in Texas for Jorge Lorenzo, things started to go Petrucci’s way, and a podium in Le Mans when Lorenzo managed only sixth place only helped the Italian’s case.

But even if Lorenzo was out, would Ducati pick Petrucci over their newly-signed-for-2018 Jack Miller, who had shown good pace and a lot of promise on the Pramac GP17? Maybe they wouldn’t pick any, some thought Andrea Iannone would slot back in alongside Dovizioso after his back-to-back podiums in Texas and Jerez aboard the factory Suzuki which it was clear he would be leaving at the end of the year when Joan Mir came into the equation.

Back to the Lorenzo/Ducati side of things, and a win last weekend in Mugello amidst strong rumours of a return to the Yamaha M1, but in a so far unnamed satellite team, allowed people to consider the possibility of the 99 remaining in Ducati. Lorenzo and Ducati both pretty much categorically denied the chance of him remaining in red next season, just hours after they had finally found the harmony they had been searching for over the last eighteen months. So where would Lorenzo go? And who would replace him?

Well, everything, as I mentioned, was looking to a Yamaha for next year, in a satellite team with Petronas, the Malaysian oil firm, as the backers, and Franco Morbidelli as the teammate. Even things in the factory team seemed to suggest that it was a possibility, with Lorenzo’s old Yamaha crew chief, Ramon Forcada, reportedly being cast out of Maverick Vinales’ crew at the end of the year, or maybe sooner after the Spaniard raised concerns about the working methods inside his side of the Movistar Yamaha garage. Together, Forcada, Lorenzo and the M1 took three MotoGP World Championship titles, and a reunion would surely offer the opportunity for more.

But when HRC announced on Tuesday that Dani Pedrosa would be leaving the Repsol Honda outfit at the end of the season, there was suddenly, seemingly, the combined weight of the universe behind the move of Jorge Lorenzo to replace the number 26 inside the factory Honda team.

Pedrosa leaving Honda was a kind of unsurprising surprise. Dani and Honda had been together for eighteen years, and over those eighteen years it has become increasingly more difficult to see the two parting ways, especially because it is difficult to find someone who could do the job of “Marc Marquez’s number two” as well as Dani Pedrosa, even if his height and weight often work against him. On the other hand, Alberto Puig, who took over as team principal from Livio Suppo over the winter, does not like Dani Pedrosa. In fact, the two dislike each other quite a lot, ever since a falling out a few years ago led Pedrosa to sack Puig as his manager. As a result of Puig’s assumption of a top role in the squad, it has been reported for some months that Pedrosa would be out of Honda at the end of the year, and so it has come to be.

And so it has come to be that Jorge Lorenzo will replace him. It’s a bizarre move, and one that many might have dreamed of, but few actually believed would ever happen. Lorenzo has struggled for one-and-a-half years on the Ducati, trying to get it to work for his super-smooth, very efficient and quite laid back riding style. He finally achieved that in Mugello, but the widely accepted assumption of MotoGP is that Jorge Lorenzo could not win on a Honda. Whilst the Desmosedici simply won’t turn, the Honda will try to dismember the pilot should they disobey a direct order. Even the immense ability of Marc Marquez struggles to tame the RC213V at times, and you only have to take a look at the size and shape of Marquez to understand the physicality involved in riding the Honda to its limits.

One thing you might say Jorge Lorenzo does not have is vast amounts of physical strength, especially not in the upper body. Jack Miller has commented that he has lost a lot of weight from his upper body this year because, where he was steering the Honda with his arms, he is making the Ducati work with his legs. This would be a big change for Lorenzo, who has moved from the least physically demanding bike on the grid, to one which is still comparatively non-physical compared to the Honda – and Lorenzo is not known for high intensity training regimes.

Even if the physicality of the RCV proves to be little, if any, barrier to Lorenzo’s success, there are three other major factors which could prove problematic in this move for the Spaniard.

The first is the bike’s characteristic. Apart from being by far the most physical bike on the grid to ride, even this year where it has improved a lot, the Honda has another big characteristic which many assume will hinder Lorenzo. The bike likes to stop, and then it likes to go. Marc Marquez has made all of his time up, since he came to MotoGP, on the brakes, and this only increased in 2015, ‘16 and ‘17 when he had a motor which would not accelerate. He couldn’t get onto the straight fast, so he had to get off it fast. In 2015, this cost him the championship because he crashed too much trying to make up time on the brakes. In the years since, Marquez has worked out when it is necessary to push the limit on the front, and when it is not; when he can, and when he can’t. In comparison, Dani Pedrosa does not push the limit of the front on every single corner, on every single lap, because he does not have the confidence to do so, and instead of leading the championship  by twenty-three points after six rounds having scored three wins and a further podium [which Marquez his team mate is], Pedrosa has scored no podiums, and no wins this season. Pushing the front on the Honda is crucial – if you cannot do that then you will struggle to win. Jorge Lorenzo does not like to push the front in the braking zone to get the bike stopped, turned, and then fired out; he likes to roll through the corners in that wonderful 250 style of his with high apex speed and a lot of momentum.

Since the Ducati does not like to turn, Lorenzo has had to adapt his style into something more similar to that of a typical MotoGP rider, running higher entry speed and stopping the bike more in the middle of the corner. But he has been able to do that with Ducati because the bike has good braking stability, something the Honda does not have. You can see this with Marquez, who, whilst winning races, is sliding the front tyre into every corner, still trying to make up time on the brakes, but skating the tyre in such a way that it makes the bike turn. He is on the verge of crashing in every corner, but he knows how to avoid it. If Jorge is to win on the Honda, it might be the case that he has to learn the same lessons as Marc, that he has to learn how to be on the limit with the front in every braking zone to make lap time. Given how difficult it has been for the Mallorcan to adapt to the Ducati, it is hard to see this happening, but it is not impossible.

Of course, there is one obvious way for Jorge to not have to ride the bike like Marc. That way is to make the bike his, or make the bike like a Yamaha, essentially. There is little reason to suggest he will be able to do this, but there is the theory that Marc Marquez is not such a dab hand at developing a motorcycle and, well, he’s only been in Grands Prix since 2008 and MotoGP since 2013 – he is 25-years-old, so who can blame him for not being a great development rider? Anyway, together with this is the letting go of Pedrosa by Honda, which leaves the hole of a development rider to be filled, assuming that that was one of Dani’s roles in the team. Honda’s other choices for this role were Joan Mir, a Moto2 rider; and Andrea Iannone, who tends to crash a bit and does not give the impression of someone who is a development expert. Lorenzo, therefore, fits the bill fairly nicely. This creates a problem for Honda, though, at least in the relatively short-term. If Jorge Lorenzo is given the job of developing the motorcycle, he will turn it into an M1, which will be something opposite to what Marc Marquez wants. Marquez wants, is pretty much, what he has currently: something which he can fire into a corner, and which is ready to fire him out of said corner when he is ready. Lorenzo wants what he had at Yamaha, something which has reasonable power, reasonable acceleration, reasonable braking stability, but most importantly has an amazing chassis which can roll through a corner with little weight on the front tyre whilst holding high corner speed and a lot of lean angle. Now, the major obstacle of making Jorge’s dream a reality in Ducati has been that the bike, for millennia, has not turned, not at all. In Honda, the obstacle is a different one.

The obstacle in Honda is not that the bike turns, but that it turns violently. This violence is what Lorenzo would need to cure to make the RC213V his own. But the things which make it violent are the things which allow Marquez to be so fast, such as the incredibly short wheelbase which allows for very good, quick, rotation in the middle of the corner.

So herein is the problem for Honda: listen to Jorge and develop the RC2(50cc)13V, or listen to Marquez and potentially end up in the same hole they have just dug themselves out of. Baring in mind that a middle ground wouldn’t really work for anyone, somebody will be disappointed.

That somebody will likely be Lorenzo, which is problem number two. Marc is Honda’s golden boy, and well he might be, with four titles in the last five seasons, two of which have been on subpar machinery. Why would Honda listen to Lorenzo over Marquez for development direction? To go down the path of supporting Jorge fully would mean an almost 180-degree switch in design philosophies, whereas continuing to support Marc would lead to (pretty much) guaranteed titles and little-to-no change in design philosophy. Either way, on the face of it the decision for Honda is a difficult one, especially because of how much they are likely to be paying Lorenzo.

However, there is the another way to look at this signing by HRC; as merely a tactical one, in that they are taking away one rival from Marc Marquez. Honda are not stupid, they know that on an M1, Lorenzo can fight for the title, but Lorenzo on an RC213V is an unknown quantity, and likely a weaker one than the alternative (Lorenzo with Yamaha). So, maybe Honda were just trying to make the next two World Championships just a little bit easier for Marquez to win – although anyone who discounts Maverick Vinales, Valentino Rossi or Andrea Dovizioso is asking to be made a fool. With better luck Dovi could have just be nine points behind Marc, Maverick Vinales proved at the beginning of last season that he has the potential, when the bike is working how he wants it to, to dominate the field, and over the last twenty three years one lesson which has been learnt is that Valentino Rossi will always be in the mix, last Sunday was a prime example of that.

The third major problem for Lorenzo is that he will have to beat Marc Marquez on equal machinery. That has only happened a handful of times, and by people either better suited to the Honda or more accustomed to its behaviour. Whichever way you look at it, this is a huge risk for Lorenzo, but if he pulls it off he will leave fans with no choice but to accept him as one of the greatest motorcycle racers of all time.

Of course, Lorenzo’s departure indeed left a gap to be filled at Ducati. They chose Danilo Petrucci, the safe bet. Petrux(Petrucci) has been riding the Desmosedici since 2015, and is well attuned to it, and to the factory. Miller was an option, but remaining inside the vibrant, relaxed atmosphere of the Pramac team next year on factory-spec machinery should give the Aussie the platform he needs to prove why he deserves to be in the factory team from 2020. It is also worth pointing out that Petrucci’s deal is only for one year, so Miller heading to the factory squad in 2020 is definitely a possibility. In the meantime, though, you have to hand it to Petrucci – if you had said to someone in the paddock back in 2012 when Petrucci was at the back of the grid on the Ioda-Suter CRT bike, having come from European Superstock straight to MotoGP, that he will be riding a factory Ducati in seven years’ time you would have been laughed out of meaning, but Danilo has put the work in, especially since he was picked up by Pramac in 2015, and got his just rewards. He has been fortunate, too, because if he didn’t get the Ducati ride, he would have been fighting against Iannone for the second slot at Aprilia. And, of course, there is no reason to assume that Jack Miller is as good as guaranteed already for the 2020 factory Ducati seat, Petrucci has been signed because Ducati think he can do a job involving winning races and, presumably, fighting for the championship. He will have the personnel next year to go with the machinery to allow him to achieve those targets, then he just has to do it.

So, what about Suzuki? Well, this is where it gets tricky. Dani Pedrosa is available, and they have one bike left, with Rins signed for the next two seasons already. They have one option other than Pedrosa, and it is widely accepted that they have taken this option, and that is Joan Mir. It is hard to believe that Suzuki would turn down Pedrosa in favour of Mir when they already have one young talent in the shape of Rins, who has already started to give them results, much as Maverick Vinales did in 2016. But Rins cannot be expected to be a team leader, surely, he will be only in his third season in the premier class, and let’s remember that Rins’ first season in MotoGP was plagued, in the first part, by injury. Adding Mir to the team will make it very hard to develop the bike, and they could find themselves getting lost next year, especially if they have no concessions, which, judging by the pace they’ve shown so far this season, they won’t have. On the plus side (if they have done or do sign Mir), any success is heightened as a result of lowered expectations and anything disappointing can be cast aside with the affirmation that their riders are inexperienced as well as the bike’s infantility.

So, with Mir almost certainly in Suzuki, that leaves Pedrosa with either: the second Tech3 KTM ride, the second Aprilia ride, a satellite Ducati or one of the satellite Yamahas. Apart from it doesn’t, because Hafizh Syahrin has been confirmed to be staying with Tech3 for their switch to KTM next season, so that door is firmly shut. Next, Aprilia. Again, unlikely, because Andrea Iannone looks a shoe in for this ride, which is a confusing one, somewhat, but we’ll discuss that later. A satellite Ducati? This is Dani Pedrosa, he doesn’t need to be battling for fifteenth. So, a satellite Yamaha it is, then, right? Well, maybe not. Apart from Pedrosa’s presumed loyalty to Honda potentially getting in the way of him moving to Yamaha, there is one other, pretty major, factor: there are no satellite Yamahas. As yet, the Iwata factory have not signed anyone to field the third and fourth M1s for next season, which is a little bit important – if there are no bikes you can’t ride them. The cut-off for Yamaha to sort out whoever is going to field their satellite bikes, if anyone, for 2019 is the end of June. Pedrosa announced that he will give further updates on his future in Barcelona. So, if Dani Pedrosa starts talking in the Montmelo press conference before anything about satellite Yamahas has been mentioned, expect to be saying goodbye to the ‘little samurai’ in Valencia this November.

Back to the Iannone to Aprilia situation; it is confusing, Why? Well in part, it is confusing because Aprilia have complained that Aleix Espargaro is not a good development rider because he does one hot lap, gritting his teeth, and then doesn’t understand how he went so fast, whereas their current second rider, Scott Redding, provides good information but they can’t do anything with it because they have no money and no resources. Furthermore, they have already signed Espargaro for 2019 and 2020, meaning it’s Scott Redding against Andrea Iannone, realistically, for that second seat. The factory favour Iannone, mostly because he looks a lot faster right now than Scott Redding, but like Aleix, Andrea is perhaps not the greatest development rider. It could be a dangerous path which Aprilia are venturing down. But the move would be a little bit weird for one other,  for a very simple reason: Iannone deserves better than Aprilia. Admittedly, he did himself no favours by only half-arsing most of last season, but he has proven this year that when he is comfortable with the bike he can be incredibly fast – it is a shame he gave Suzuki a reason to sack him. Equally, we saw in his Ducati years that when he is in an Italian team, Iannone can flourish, so perhaps this could work well for The Maniac. Of course, it is yet to be confirmed, but it is likely to happen.

If it does, and Mir is confirmed in Suzuki like the majority of people expect, that is all of the factory seats done and dusted. What then is left is the two Angel Nieto Team bikes, the second Avintia Ducati – Xavier Simeon already has a contract with them for next year- and the two Marc VDS bikes, or whatever they become next year.

And if Iannone does go to Suzuki, Redding will most likely be off to World Superbike. His fellow Brit, Bradley Smith, will probably retire, because he doesn’t want to go to World Superbike and there does not seem to be much interest in him from any of the MotoGP teams with seats left available. Franco Morbidelli’s future is uncertain thanks to the instability currently engulfing the Marc VDS team, but if satellite Yamahas become available there will likely be a big push to get the reigning Moto2 World Champion aboard one of them. Karel Abraham and Alvaro Bautista are both supposedly in talks with World Superbike teams, although the recent form of Bautista (three top tens in the last three races) may have helped to secure his Grand Prix future. Tito Rabat has had a great year so far, and it would be a surprise (and a shame) to see him dropped from Avintia. But, in addition, the current form of Lorenzo Baldassarri in Moto2, could well be catching the attention of some MotoGP teams and, again, if the satellite Yamahas become available expect a big push from VR46 to get their man aboard one of them.

There is still a reasonable amount to be decided for next year yet but the revelations of the week following the Italian Grand Prix have brought all-new levels of intrigue and anticipation for 2019.

In 2016, Dorna’s vision was realised, where unified ECU software regulations were implemented in the MotoGP World Championship. The regulations had the desired effect, closing up the pack and making the field more competitive than ever before. The last two seasons, 2016 and 2017, have been incredible. Ten different race winners in 2016, followed by a final round championship decider in 2017 spoiled us MotoGP fans,  but this year we are paying the price.

But that is not anyone’s fault. Whilst Marc Marquez won the last two World Championships, he did not dominate them – at least not in terms of pace. There was no big speed or pace advantage that the Spaniard enjoyed for most of the season, like 2014 for example. But, in 2018, that has changed, because for the first time since that ridiculous 2014 season, Honda have built a motorcycle that does not have a major disadvantage. In fact, it is possible to say that, this season, the Honda is the best bike on the grid. Since 2015, the RC213V struggled with acceleration, initially because the engine was purely too aggressive, but then, when the unified software was introduced, it was marrying that motor with the Magneti Marelli ECU which proved the downfall of HRC. A big change came for 2017, though, when Honda switched from a ‘screamer’ to a ‘big bang’ engine, moving in line with the rest of the grid. The comparative smoothness of the big bang compared to the old screamer engine, which Honda was able to use in the past because their in-house electronics system was so sophisticated, meant that it was much more controllable for the ECU, which negated much of their disadvantage in acceleration from the past two seasons, but it was still apparent. One year on, and the acceleration deficit has almost entirely disappeared. Aside from Austin, where Cal Crutchlow complained about acceleration, and Jerez when Dani Pedrosa had similar issues, ‘acceleration’ has not been a prominent word in the 2018 vocabulary of the factory Honda riders. That has led to one thing: Marc Marquez domination.

From the moment Qatar ended, it was clear that the Spaniard was going to be hard to beat this season, and his pace in Argentina and Texas was simply frightening. But the two continental American rounds were somewhat insignificant, because Marquez is always fast at those two circuits. But, Qatar remained a worrying event for the rest of the field; Marquez had not been on the podium in Qatar since he won back in 2014, so to be less than one tenth of a second off the victory was something of a warning shot from the reigning champion to his rivals. That was born out in Jerez, where he took a commanding victory at a circuit where, again he hadn’t won since 2014. Le Mans became something of a final hope for the championship, especially with the non-score of Andrea Dovizioso in Jerez. Le Mans was another circuit where Marquez had not won since 2014 – he had struggled a lot post 2015. It was the chance for his rivals to hit back.

However, from Friday it became clear that it would not be the same as the past for Marquez, finishing FP2 on Friday in second place, just 0.168 seconds of Andrea Dovizioso despite setting his fastest time of the session on the hard rear tyre. And, whilst Dovi showed promising long run pace in FP4 on Saturday, the pace of Marquez on the hard rear tyre in warm up on Sunday morning was worrying ahead of the race. But, as you might expect, with the hard rear tyre Marquez suffered with temperature in the early laps of the race, and dropped a few positions at the start. As soon as he passed Danilo Petrucci, though, for fifth place, he jumped straight onto the back of the leading trio of Jorge Lorenzo, Johann Zarco and Dovizioso. Dovi knew the score, and he moved past Zarco and Lorenzo quickly, but just as quickly, he folded the front at La Chapelle; Dovi just got in there, too hot trying to make as much of a gap as he could before Marquez got through Zarco and Lorenzo behind. Unfortunately for Dovi, it was too much and it has probably ended his championship chances. But Marquez quickly got through Zarco and Lorenzo, helped by a crash for the Frenchman[Zarco], but by this point Danilo Petrucci had caught the leaders with Valentino Rossi in tow. Petrux was soon past Lorenzo, partly because he was after Marquez but also because he wanted to put a little bit more of his authority on the second 2019 factory Ducati contract. Rossi moved through on Lorenzo too, a lap later, and still had his sights set on Petrucci, though he knew Marquez was too far. That was the end of the action at the front.

From there on, Marquez kept Petrucci at a safe distance, Petrucci managed the gap to Rossi until the Yamaha rider had a couple of bad laps which cost him some time, after which Petrucci let Marquez go completely to conserve his second place. But the most important, of course, was the win of Marquez. The race had a real 2014 feel to it, with an explosive start after which Marc had to recover, and then a dull second half where the highlight was a, now, relatively routine save for the number 93 at turn three. This is worrying. We have had three years where Marquez has either not won the championship, or not won it with ease but 2018 seems different. Now Honda have sorted out the RCV, the reigning champion is reminding us of the reality, and in devastating fashion.

Already thirty six points clear of Maverick Vinales, the championship fight is over. You could say that this is a negative perspective to have, but, be honest, can you see anyone being able to claw back the deficit they already have? Vinales is 36 points back, and he just finished seventh; Zarco is 37 back and on a satellite bike; Rossi is 38 points adrift but bad results await the Italian in the next races and Andrea Dovizioso, who was the main threat to Marquez coming into this season is already nearly two wins back in the standings. Now, you can say that good tracks are coming for Ducati, but even if Dovi wins many races in the remaining part of the year, realistically he is going to need Marc to make mistakes, and in races Marc does not make mistakes, generally. So, essentially, without a major anomaly, Marquez has the championship won.

The next question is: can anyone beat him in the remainder of the season? Maybe Danilo Petrucci could. He finished second yesterday, with an outstanding ride. It is debatable how much Marquez was pushing after he extended his lead, but nevertheless, Petrucci kept Marquez within reasonable range for the majority of the race, which, as was proved in Jerez and Austin, is not an easy task. Furthermore, Petrucci took the points neither Dovi nor Lorenzo could pick up for Ducati. When the pressure has been put on Danilo, when contract season has arrived, Petrux has turned up, and he is making it difficult for Ducati to let him go. Mugello is next, and it was third place for Petrucci last year and after this result, he will be full of confidence that he can take the top step this time round.

The third place of Rossi came as a surprise. He lucked into fifth two weeks ago in Jerez, and it was a similar case this weekend. However, unlike in Jerez, it was individual mistakes that gave Rossi the podium in Le Mans. It has to be said that he deserved the podium, the weekend had gone in a similar vein to Jerez, although not as extreme, for the Movistar Yamaha team. They were fast in the cool temperatures of the morning, but in the afternoon they struggled. This was highlighted on Saturday, when they were first and third in FP3 in the morning, but only managed eighth and ninth on the grid. Modifications made in warm up on Sunday morning proved a success for the number 46 and they gave him the grip and acceleration gains required to allow him to fight. But the problems for Yamaha are not over, not nearly, and Rossi was under no illusion about the struggles he and the Movistar Yamaha team are going to face in the next races, but he will hope the test in Barcelona this week will help them continue the progress.

Maverick Vinales will be hoping for progress, too, after his seventh place in Le Mans. He is second in the championship after the French Grand Prix, but nobody really knows how. The Spaniard has finished fifth, fifth, second, seventh and seventh, so his current standing is a surprise to everyone. The problem in Le Mans was the same as usual for Maverick: a poor qualifying followed by a poor start and average pace on a full tank limiting the damage he could do at the end of the race to nothing. The frustration is that at the end of the race he is always fast, he and his team just need to find a way to make him comfortable on a full fuel load, and that has to be their focus in Barcelona for the test. The fourth place of Jack Miller in France was the result of a stunning ride. He ended the race just six seconds behind Marquez, one second behind Rossi and, importantly, two positions and four seconds ahead of Lorenzo on the factory bike. As Petrucci, Miller is making it difficult for Ducati to turn him away from the factory seat for next year. Furthermore, Miller reckoned that with an extra lap or two he could have passed Rossi for the final podium spot. Unfortunately, Jack made a couple of mistakes and they ultimately cost him, but for sure he will be wishing the organisers did not shorten the race by one lap for this year. Dani Pedrosa took fifth place in France. He put a move on Jorge Lorenzo for that fifth position which was very similar to the one which he tried in Jerez, which resulted in him colliding with Lorenzo and high siding. This time it was more successful for the number 26, though, and he made the move as clean as you like. He will be hoping for improvements in the future, but right now Dani just needs to find some consistency after a disrupted start to the season.

There was no positivity for Jorge Lorenzo, though. He started the race well, leading nine laps, but after he was passed, he collapsed, falling to sixth by the end of the race. Lorenzo blamed ergonomics of the Ducati GP18, saying that the fuel tank doesn’t offer him sufficient support in braking, which leaves him too tired by the end of the race. Being beaten by both Pramac rider won’t help his chances of staying in Ducati in 2019, but with his favourite track up next, Mugello, he could redeem himself at the Italian Grand Prix.

Cal Crutchlow spent the night in hospital on Saturday after his high side in Q1 at Garage Vert. He had blood in his lungs, and several other internal injuries, but just six hours after he was discharged from hospital he was on the grid and he finished eighth, just two seconds from last year’s winner, Vinales. Before Mugello it will be important for Cal to recover, especially for a circuit which is so physical, with many changes of direction. Ninth place went to Aleix Espargaro, who will have just been happy to finish after such a difficult start to the season. It was a good finish, too, ahead of Alex Rins on the factory Suzuki who rounded out the top ten, and the finish was just as important for Alex as Aleix, as the number 42 had also only had one finish from the opening four races. The pair will hope that from now they can build some consistency into their seasons, although there is nothing to lose for either of them, as they both have contracts for next year to stay put in their respective teams.

Pol Espargaro took KTM’s best finish of the season in eleventh place, and the result showed the progress KTM have made since Le Mans last year, as their race time was 20 seconds faster than 12 months ago. Hafizh Syahrin took twelfth place as he returned to more regular form after a difficult Jerez where he suffered with injury. Thirteenth went to Franco Morbidelli, who was running

as high as ninth before his tyre let go. The final result is not what he will have been after, but the weekend shows continued progress for the reigning Moto2 World Champion. Bradley Smith and Takaaki Nakagami rounded out the points, and fifteenth will be a welcome result for Taka, after an injury sustained on Friday. Andrea Iannone’s slim Suzuki chances for 2019 perhaps went up in smoke on Sunday when he crashed at La Chapelle on lap one. The next lap Iannone was joined on the side lines on the next lap by Alvaro Bautista, who felt he had the potential for a top ten, and then Dovizioso two laps later. Zarco fell with 19 laps to go, and the final fallers came on lap ten when Scott Redding and Tito Rabat fell.

A race which started with a stunning double overtake from Johann Zarco in turn three and turned into a fairly dull affair has potentially decided the championship. There are still fourteen races to go, but the worrying thing is that they could all follow the same path. The 2018 MotoGP field is perhaps the most competitive in years, but it is at risk of producing one of the most predictable seasons. Maybe something will change when the paddock arrives in the home of the Italian Grand Prix in Mugello in two weeks time.

 

Featured Image courtesy of Hondanews.eu

Coming into MotoGP qualifying, there had been 67 crashes across all three classes over the course of the French Grand Prix weekend, and surely the number was only going to increase during the most high-pressured fifteen minutes of the weekend.

And indeed it did. Alvaro Bautista was the first to fall in Q1, followed by Karel Abraham and then a giant high side for Cal Crutchlow before Pol Espargaro crashed as well. In Q2, it was Aleix Espargaro who was the first and only who crashed at turn two. Well, he lost the front at turn one, let go of the bike at turn two, and the bike came to a halt on the outside of turn three. It could have been a lot worse for Aleix, but he returned to pit lane in time to get out on his second bike.

However, it could not have been much worse for Cal Crutchlow. He crashed in FP3, then again in FP4, before the monster high-side at Garage Vert on his final Q1 lap. He cracked the throttle, and the electronics did not save him, it almost looked a bit like Dani Pedrosa’s Aragon 2013 crash when he came out of turn 12 with, to his surprise, no traction control. Cal came crashing down on his back, on the right side, and was then collected by the bike too, for good measure. It had been a messy day for Cal upto that point anyway, and he had been quite animated on Friday at times, too, but it was difficult to foresee his day ending in that way. He went to hospital for check-ups, where it seems to have been discovered that he has suffered no broken bones, but heavy bruising has occurred. He did not go unconscious after the incident, which means that he could theoretically race tomorrow, and it is difficult to ever discount Cal Crutchlow from fighting to race. Either way, it could have been a lot worse for Cal, and it is good to know that his injuries are not too serious.

In fairness, it was a surprise to see Crutchlow in Q1 in the first place, after the start to the season he has had, winning in Argentina, and pole in Jerez being the highlights of an opening four rounds that got many people wondering (again) whether he would replace Dani Pedrosa in Repsol Honda.

But the Q1 session was very close, and it was to be expected: Dani Pedrosa, Alex Rins, Danilo Petrucci, as well as Crutchlow all being riders who had a decent shot at getting through to Q2. In the end it was Pedrosa and Petrucci.

So that left Q2, and it was a battle between Petrucci, Johann Zarco and Marc Marquez, it seemed, for pole. Finally, it was Zarco who took it, the home rider putting in a stunning 1’31.185 to take both pole and the outright Le Mans Bugatti Circuit lap record – the home hero in sublime form to delight the patriotic French crowd. Apparently, there was a “royal wedding” today in Britain, but I think the real prince of today has been Johann Zarco. I mean, he didn’t have to get the homeless scurried away for his moment of brilliance, and it is probably fair to say that he brought more joy to the crowd today in that one moment than any prince will in a lifetime. Today, Zarco was great, unstoppable, and it is difficult to imagine that he will be much different tomorrow, and in this moment I think it is important to point out what Johann Zarco is: different,  and is he afraid to be different? No. He embraces his quirks, he is comfortable with them, and it shows in his performances. He is someone people should look to for inspiration and he should be celebrated for his quirky success – it’s his success because it’s success done his way, and that deserves a lot more celebration than two rich people getting married. I wish people like him got what they deserve.

People like him might include Marc Marquez, although he should be celebrated simply for being the best at what he does, and for being outstanding entertainment. Marc Marquez is the personification of why people like motorcycle racing, or motorsport in general, because you just do not know what will happen. Sometimes this is bad, sometimes it is remarkably great, but today it fell somewhere in the middle. He crashed in FP3, but as he has done on so many occasions, he just got back on, and rode round some more. Two corners after a crash, he has his elbow on the deck again – the man is truly biblical. But it was the second fastest time for the reigning World Champion today. It will be difficult to keep him there tomorrow, and that very sentence when spoken on the French GP weekend is a worrying thought for the rest of the season.

After making a step in FP4 and advancing to Q2 from Q1, Danilo Petrucci qualified as top Ducati in third place, making stronger his case to replace Jorge Lorenzo next season in the factory team. Can Petrucci win tomorrow? Maybe not, but he can make it very difficult for the people who can.

Andrea Iannone will start tomorrow’s race from the front of row two. He has out-paced his teammate, Alex Rins, at both of the previous two races, and has out-performed the Spaniard in France, too. He wants that second Suzuki seat for next season, and he is going about it in a good way – a third successive podium tomorrow would only help his chances.

The #04 Ducati of Andrea Dovizioso put in a late lap to move from tenth on the grid to fifth. It was an important lap for Dovi because he needs to win tomorrow to start taking points out of Marquez, if he wants to fight for the championship. Whilst the one lap pace for Dovi was not so fantastic, the race pace looks good, and he seems to be one of the few riders who has free reign when it comes to tyre selection; soft, medium, hard – on the rear they all work. It will be a question of temperature tomorrow for Dovizioso when it comes to tyre choice, but it looks like he will be able to fight for the win no matter what the situation.

It is the third GP18 of Jorge Lorenzo which will line up at the back of the second row tomorrow in sixth place. The Spaniard will be aiming to climb onto the podium, both to make up for what he missed in Jerez, and also to combat Petrucci and Iannone. Lorenzo could win tomorrow, but will he? Well, probably not. He may have the pace to stay with the leaders but Lorenzo’s silky smooth riding style and apparent inability to maintain a rhythm after he has been passed means it will be difficult for him to maintain the fight tomorrow, especially with a fired up home hero like Johann Zarco in the mix. Even if Lorenzo gets out front, there is little to stop the Frenchman sending a torpedo into the bow of Lorenzo’s Duc if it came down to a last lap scrap, and history would suggest that he would have little with which to respond.

Jack Miller goes off of seventh place tomorrow, as he impressed once more on the GP17 Ducati. The Aussie out-qualified both factory Yamaha riders, both of whom start alongside him on row three tomorrow.

Maverick Vinales is the lead of the two Movistar bikes in eighth. He has been quick all weekend but Yamaha’s newest weakness; qualifying, once more reared its softly-sprung head in today’s Q2. It seems that, when it gets hot, even if the M1 can keep hold of the tyres over a race distance, it cannot make one lap with good speed. Vinales complained in Thailand that the bike, this year, has become too smooth. This was somewhat backed up in Jerez when Valentino Rossi, who was ninth in quali, complained that the tyres on both the front and rear were too soft, which implies there is too much weight transfer going on for the tyres to handle. The smoothness, or potential over-softness, of the 2018 M1 is unhelpful for qualifying because it means that it is difficult for the rider to feel the grip of the new tyre underneath them, because still the bike is moving too much, and this is heightened by high temperatures and low-grip conditions. If the rider cannot feel the difference of a new tyre, then they cannot make the expected difference with a new tyre. This puts the pair in a difficult spot for tomorrow, as they seem to have good race pace, but a poor first lap could ruin that, and a poor first lap is entirely possible from the third row.

Dani Pedrosa will line up tenth tomorrow, but has struggled this weekend and so might find it difficult to make progress. Tito Rabat and Aleix Espargaro were 11th and 12th.

If Cal Crutchlow starts tomorrow he will line up 13th, ahead of Hafuzh Syahrin and Alex Rins, who needs a good race tomorrow and most importantly a finish, because he only has one of those so far this season. [Update Cal has been cleared to race].

Franco Morbidelli will start 16th, ahead of the KTMs of Bradley Smith and Pol Espargaro. It’s strange that, since Pol signed for KTM, Bradley has stepped up a lot. Either way, he will struggle to find a GP ride for next year, and World Superbike aren’t exactly struggling for Brits, or ex-Grand Prix riders. Smith is in a hole and the next races are going to be crucial if he is going to dig himself out of it.

Takaaki Nakagami will start nineteenth for LCR Honda, perhaps their only starter tomorrow, ahead of Alvaro Bautista and Tom Luthi who complete row seven. Row eight is comprised of the eternally damned qualifier, Scott Redding, Xavier Simeon and Karel Abraham.

03/03/2018 has been an unsurprising day in the world of MotoGP: Johann Zarco has signed for Red Bull KTM for two years. This news comes one day after Pol Espargaro was confirmed to stay with the Austrian manufacturer for the next two years.

On the face of it, the move is a good one for both sides. Last year, KTM showed a tremendous development rate, as they accelerated through the midfield, whist Zarco has proven since he came to MotoGP at the beginning of last year that he has the potential, if given the right equipment, to fight for the world title, which ultimately is a goal he shares with KTM.

Perhaps, though, the move is a better one for the employer than the employee. KTM get a double Moto2 World Champion, 2017’s MotoGP Rookie of the Year and one of the smoothest, yet most aggressive riders on the grid. But what is perhaps more valuable than all of that to KTM is that Zarco is the first ever Red Bull Rookies Cup Champion, a title he won back in 2008. One of KTM’s goals when it entered MotoGP was to obtain a better retention rate of their Red Bull Rookies graduates, as an alarming amount, such as Jorge Martin, Fabio Di Giannantonio and Ayumu Sasaki had ended up on Hondas in Moto3. Zarco moving back to KTM represents an opportunity for KTM to prove to their young riders that staying with KTM is an option – that you don’t have to be on a Honda, Yamaha, Ducati or Suzuki to win in MotoGP.

So, whilst KTM get their original road racing golden child, what does Zarco get? Well, he gets a team assembled, in part, of the minds that powered KTM to three of the first five Moto3 World Championships and, in part, of some of the people who developed the MotoGP projects of some of KTM’s rivals. In addition, he gets an RC16. What exactly an RC16 actually is, is difficult to determine, because it changes configuration almost every half-hour. But, for certain, it was the most improved bike of last year, as well as probably the most disappointing bike of 2018.

Of course, KTM aren’t sprouting a fifth RC16 for 2019 for Zarco to pilot, they are sacking Bradley Smith. This is not a surprise. Smith did well to avoid being replaced by Mika Kallio for this season, and it was pretty much inevitable that he would not be riding a factory KTM in 2019. His options aren’t endless, either. He might be able to get himself a seat at Tech3 on one of their KTMs, but Avintia will likely keep hold of Rabat to partner Simeon, Marc VDS will remain with Morbidelli and bring in Alex Marquez or Joan Mir to go alongside the Italian, Angel Nieto will probably keep what they have (but may switch bikes) and Aprilia would probably prefer Iannone or a Moto2 rider to replace Aleix Espargaro or Scott Redding (or both), if it came to that, which is somewhat unlikely. It seems Smith’s MotoGP career is done.

Finally, since the other option for Zarco other than KTM was Repsol Honda, the Frenchman’s move to KTM almost confirms Dani Pedrosa’s safety on the second Repsol Honda.

Featured Image courtesy of KTM.