Category: Crew On Two

The Austrian Grand Prix weekend was a complete disaster for Yamaha, there is no other word. Both on the track and off it, Yamaha’s weekend at the last Grand Prix was nothing short of embarrassing. Hampered by a mechanical in the only dry free practice, FP1, Valentino Rossi failed to make Q2 directly from free practice, and could only manage fourteenth on the grid, complaining that the soft tyre was too soft for the Yamaha. Meanwhile, Maverick Vinales was only eleventh on the grid, suffering with sensor problems. This Saturday slump led the MotoGP project leader, Kouji Tsuya, to apologise to both the manufacturer’s factory riders for the poor performance of the bike, promising improvements are on the way in two upcoming tests.

One of those tests – in Misano – has already been and gone. We will only find out whether there was any progress on Friday, but for the sake of the manufacturer, you would hope that there have been some positive findings.

So, we know the situation, some have described this as “rock bottom” for Yamaha. They sit second in the riders championship with Valentino Rossi, third in the manufacturers’ standings, 53 points from the Honda at the top; and third in the teams’ championship with twelve points between the Movistar team and the Repsol Honda outfit. The numbers don’t seem so bad, and that is because the M1, despite many contrary opinions, has improved in some areas this year, and this has allowed it to be strong in some circuits. However, the neglection of the core issue with the bike means that in the places where the M1 was weak last year, it is weaker this year, because everyone else has moved on. So, whilst the balance of the bike has improved compared to last year, and the M1 is back to being the smooth, high-corner-speed bike we know it as, the electronics have not progressed – or not progressed enough – which in this era of MotoGP is the most critical part.

As Rossi mentioned before Austria, the Red Bull Ring is the M1’s worst circuit, the slow speed corners followed by long straights is the worst combination for it, because it can’t use its corner speed, and its acceleration issues are emphasised. So it is likely that in the coming weekends the M1 will seem in a good way again, but that won’t mean that the issues are solved, just that they are masked by the circuit layout.

But where did this start? We know the situation Yamaha are in at the moment – their worst moment since 1998 – but where did this path start? Why are they in this hole?

It’s possible to trace the root of their issues back to 2015. The M1 was the best bike in 2015, no doubt about it. The bike was the best out of the box in Qatar for the first race, and the developments Yamaha brought to the bike throughout the year almost always worked. But there was one issue, a familiar one: rear tyre wear. Yamaha were able to get around this three years ago because they had the luxury of factory electronics, designed specifically for the M1, and understood perfectly by the engineers in Iwata.

With the introduction of the universal, spec ECU in 2016, though, Yamaha became complacent. They heard “controlled electronics” and took that as gospel, putting less effort than their competitors – notably Honda and Ducati – into developing and understanding the Magneti Marelli software. Whilst their two biggest rivals went out and poached engineers from Marelli themselves, and the likes of Suzuki sent their own engineers to Italy to learn the functions of the controlled software, Yamaha didn’t act, and worked on the new system themselves, with no external assistance.

Instead of focusing on electronics, Yamaha looked at the chassis, the motor and the aerodynamics of the M1. The first item they introduced to combat the tyre wear issues was a new chassis, at the post-race Valencia test at the end of 2015. It didn’t work, neither Jorge Lorenzo nor Valentino Rossi liked the update, which had the fuel tank mounted further back in the bike, with the fuel going into the bike in the tail section, behind the seat. So, the 2016 chassis was essentially the 2015 chassis, with some slightly bigger wings on the front. However, the 2015 chassis was by far the best on the grid in 2015, meaning that in the first half of 2016, the Yamaha was still the best machine out there, and was only missing the championship lead through reliability (Rossi’s blow up in the Mugello race – and Lorenzo’s in warm up the same day – were supposedly due to a mapping problem on the electronics which allowed the bike to over-rev over the crest, with disastrous consequences) and rider error.

From the halfway point of the 2016 season, though, when Honda and Ducati started to see the fruits of their labour with regards to the electronics, Yamaha started to fall back, unable to make the tyre last the distance. The first time it really became apparent was in Aragon, where Rossi led the early stages, but was hunted down by Marquez with ease once the tyres started to drop slightly. This set the tone for the rest of the season, with Yamaha not winning until Valencia of that year, and even then Lorenzo was closed down hand over fist by Marc Marquez in the final laps of the race.

The degradation issues with the rear that the M1 was suffering with in the second half of 2016 prompted Yamaha to go full revolution – in MotoGP terms – with the 2017 bike. Initially, it looked like they had got it right. Rossi was struggling a lot through free practices, but was able to find something for Sunday, whilst Vinales looked almost unbeatable in the first portion of the season – only denied a sweep of the first three races by a crash in Texas, and even that handed Rossi the championship lead. Everything looked good for Yamaha as the championship entered the European season, but it was in Jerez, where Vinales finished sixth and Rossi only tenth, that it started to decline for the Movistar team. Another poor result in Barcelona (Rossi 8th, Vinales 10th) showed the extent of Yamaha’s misdirection, especially as Rossi had won in both Jerez and Barcelona the previous year, and there had been no changes to either circuits.

New chassis’ arrived for the pair to test in the post-race test in Montmelo 2017, supposedly the 2017 chassis with some 2016 bits (stiffness ratios, for example) and Rossi felt that one in particular was an improvement. Supposedly Vinales preferred the original 2017 design, but he was forced into using the one that Rossi had chosen, a decision which haunted Vinales’ mind for the rest of the season.

Rossi won the next race, and it seemed all was well once again, but wet weather nightmares, and poor dry pace regardless, in Sachsenring proved otherwise. Another string of poor results in the second half of 2017, and a terrible weekend in Valencia, sent the team to do what they had been avoiding for half a season, and they switched overnight to the 2016 chassis. No setup time meant that they had no pace in the race, and it was another disastrous result for the factory team, made no better by the fact that Johann Zarco on the Tech 3 Yamaha was fighting for the victory against Dani Pedrosa.

The post-race Valencia test in 2017 saw all manner of different combinations in both the factory Yamaha garage, and the Tech 3 pit, as they tried to find a direction for 2018. Ultimately, they reverted to the 2016 design for their base, but once more over the winter there was a lack of investment in the electronic side, and from the first tests of the 2018 preseason, it was clear that the M1 was still a way off being able to win a race.

Now, though, it is clear that the problem lies not only in the electronic side of the Yamaha, but in other areas too.

A new engine was introduced over the winter, liked by both riders and thus homologated. Furthermore, it is believed  both Honda and Ducati has had continued development over the last months, whilst Yamaha has remained stagnant in this area.

The engine, though, is perhaps the most immediate issue. Fundamentally, Yamaha messed up with the design of this year’s engine, and the crankshaft is too light, meaning the engine is too aggressive. It is the same thing which caused Honda so many problems in 2015 and ’16, and the most critical problem Suzuki faced last year. The biggest problem for Yamaha is that they cannot change the engine until the winter, for now they have to make do with what they have, and what they have is not good enough.

On the organisational side, this could prove just as fatal as any mechanical or electronic issue with the M1. A full overhaul of the management and inner workings of the Iwata manufacturer could produce instability lasting for months and even years, putting them out of contention for titles for as long as that instability lasts. Without stability and progressive evolution inside the team, or the whole Yamaha MotoGP department, it becomes difficult to work correctly and make progress with the bike, because the new people have to fit together in the new system, and that takes time, especially when it is a reactionary move – and in this case, it would be most certainly reactionary on Yamaha’s part. That said, staying as they are resigns them to stagnation; to progress, they have to change the way they work, and just like with the engine, they have no choice.

A third issue appeared after Brno. A Ducati engineer explained that the key to the Michelin tyres is to use the drive grip, the centre of the tyre. They said that one of the reasons Yamaha are struggling at the moment, could be that they spend so much time on the side of the tyre. This is because the style of the Yamaha is to run a lot of corner speed, and to utilise the edge grip of the tyre. The problem is that this increases wheelspin, and thus tyre wear. This is especially worrying for Yamaha, because it means that they could face redesigning the entire motorcycle, completely changing their philosophy to comply with the demands of the Michelin.

Whilst this would be one of a number of things that stand between Yamaha and wining again, personally I hope this is not one that will be fleshed out. One of the biggest appeals of motorcycle racing is the diversity and variety, both in riding styles and design philosophies. If Yamaha were to go away from their traditional ‘corner speed’ bikes for the sake of tyres, it would be a shame, because it would essentially mean that to win, there is only one way, and that is not MotoGP, it is not MotoGP to me, anyway.

Neglecting the latest point, Yamaha still have a lot of work to do before they arrive at a Grand Prix in a state where they can win again. Starting with the engine, of which a 2019 spec should be in their final test day of 2018 in Aragon, after Silverstone, there are many aspects on which the engineers back in Japan have to work upon, and really it is doubtful that they will even be able to win consistently, if at all, next year. However, the (belated) announcement of a Yamaha European test team for next year shows they are on the right track, and are intent on solving their issues in the longer term.

For now, though; I tweeted on the day of the French Grand Prix that “If it (a Yamaha win) won’t happen today then it won’ t happen at all in 2018”, and right now that prediction seems fairly on the money.

Featured Image courtesy Yamaha Motor Racing

“Ducati Land”. That was the tag Marc Marquez labelled the Red Bull Ring on Saturday, despite setting pole position in Q2 by 0.002 seconds over Andrea Dovizioso. There was no debate about his statement, the slow corners, followed by long straights that the Red Bull Ring is comprised of suits the Desmosedici perfectly.

In the same moment, the same characteristics of the Red Bull Ring lend themselves extremely well to Jorge Lorenzo, whose style is all geared to strong corner exit speed.

Whilst there was a miscommunication on Saturday in the #99 side of the Ducati garage, it would be solely down to his only two rivals – Marquez and Ducati teammate Andresa Dovizioso – to defeat the Majorcan over the 28-lap race distance.

But that is not to say that Lorenzo was the clear favourite; both Marquez and Dovizioso had looked at least as strong as the five times World Champion on the previous two days, and Marquez was the only rider in the field to have managed to get a long run in on all tyres.

However, it made it no less surprising to see Marquez escape at the front in the beginning of the race. The reigning World Champion admitted after the race that his strategy was to bolt away at the start, to try to fight only one Ducati, as he had learned from Brno that fighting two factory Desmosedicis at the same time is nearly impossible, such is their strength in both acceleration and braking.

His strategy nearly worked. When Marquez passed Dovi in turn three on the first lap, he ran the Italian out wide, costing him two places. It let Lorenzo through, but Marquez at this stage was more worried about Dovi. Once Marquez had passed Lorenzo for the lead, he started to pull away, and Lorenzo looked to be both struggling and holding up his factory Ducati teammate.

But Dovizioso was unable to pass the number 99, which for a while looked okay, because the gap between Marquez and Lorenzo was decreasing. But in the same moment as Lorenzo passed Marquez for the lead, in turn one on lap nineteen, Dovizioso ran wide, lost one second, and was unable in the remaining ten laps to close the margin.

It was, then, between Lorenzo and Marquez. They swapped positions often, Marquez being very strong into turn three, and Lorenzo more so in turns one, eight and nine.

Eventually, the final lap arrived, with Marquez leading into it, but Lorenzo passing him into turn one. Marquez responded in turn three, but simultaneously lost both the front and the rear, which meant Lorenzo was able to carry the momentum around the outside, and out-drag the number 93 to turn four. The gap now was quite big, and over Lorenzo Marquez did not have the same advantage in the two left handers of turns six and seven that he had over Dovizioso last year. This, combined with Marquez’s mistake in turn three, was the deciding factor, because Marquez could not get close enough into either turn nine or ten to make a pass, and he could not deny Lorenzo victory.

Jorge learned his lesson from last year. In 2017, he went too hard at the start, trying to escape, but he used too much fuel, which meant that he had to run softer engine modes in the later laps, giving him nothing to fight with in the second half of the race. This year, he managed the fuel at the start, as well as the tyre (he went soft-soft), and this allowed him to attack more at the end, at no disadvantage to Marquez. Furthermore, Lorenzo proved once again that the soft, when managed correctly, can last better than a medium or a hard rear tyre, simply because it spins less, and so there is less excessive temperature build up in the tyre.

Perhaps, though, the most impressive thing about Lorenzo’s ride, was his aggression in the battle against Marquez. There were some tough moves going down in this battle, it was a proper scrap, one that you might expect Lorenzo to lose out in, in the past, but on this occasion, just like in Brno a week previous, Jorge had enough and more to be able to put up a fight against the best scrapper in the world, and he turned the Red Bull Ring from “Ducati Land” to “Lorenzo’s Land”. Again, we ask “what if?” What if Jorge Lorenzo had started the season in the form he has had since Mugello. What if Ducati had listened to him, and given him the fuel tank modifications sooner? What if Ducati re-signed him? Jorge Lorenzo has the potential to fight for this world title, but unfortunately all the work he has put in this year to work out the Ducati will be for nothing when he jumps on the Honda RC213V at Valencia in November, and starts all over again. But for now, he and the Desmosedici might just be the strongest package out there.

For Marquez, it was yet another disappointing defeat at the hand of a Ducati rider in the final lap. That said, he couldn’t do much about it. The Ducati gets out of the corner better than the Honda, it has more power in the straight than the Honda and it has better braking stability than the Honda. You can’t fight that. Marquez was over the limit trying to fight the Ducati of Lorenzo in this battle, and when that happens he normally wins. In fact, against any other bike, he wins 9/10 times. Even still, Marquez can be content with his effort in Austria, he beat one Ducati in their best track, and he extended his championship lead to 59 points. The title is still his to lose, and ultimately he knows that in the long run – pas this year – Dovizioso is probably his main threat over the course of the season, and Marc demolished Dovi this weekend.

Dovizioso’s problems started before the race, in the tyre selection. He chose medium tyres front and rear, compared to his teammate’s all-soft choice. From the beginning of the race, Dovizioso was struggling to get the bike to stop , and the time he spent behind Lorenzo killed his race, because that was when he was the most comfortable. The mistake he made ten laps from the flag cost him one second, and after that for a couple of laps he couldn’t find a rhythm. By the time he found his pace again, his tyre was finished and the leaders were gone. A disappointing race for Dovi, but another podium strengthens his bid for second in the championship, and you would probably still expect the Italian to be more consistent for the rest of the season than Lorenzo, although Lorenzo now leads him in the championship by two points.

Fourth over the line was Cal Crutchlow, nine seconds back from the win, and 3.5 seconds clear of Danilo Petrucci in fifth. The critical thing for this pair, for the race, was the personnel. Both of them have factory bikes, but none have factory teams, and this is what makes the difference in a rear-tyre-limited/fuel-limited race like this one, because the factory riders have a lot more people working to find the perfect electronics setting, and the perfect fuel strategy. Still, it was Crutchlow’s best Austrian performance by far, after a ride-through in 2016, and a fifteenth last year. Ahead of Silverstone in two weeks, this is a great way for the Brit to go into it, as he looks to win his home race for the first time in his career.

Valentino Rossi and his team made a change in warm up on Sunday morning which allowed him to be more consistent with a used tyre. With this gain, he was able to half-rescue Yamaha’s weekend by finishing sixth, which was beyond his expectation. Of course, it was still a disastrous weekend for Yamaha, and Rossi is still without a podium in Austria in the top class, but the gains made in warm up they will hope can transfer to Silverstone, where they were strong last year.

Dani Pedrosa took seventh place. He got beaten up quite badly in the beginning of the race, in those first two hard braking zones at turns one and three. From there he pretty much followed Rossi through the pack to seventh, helped by some strong late race pace. The critical thing for Dani is a similar one to that of Maverick Vinales, being able to go fast in the beginning. There are circuits coming up which have the potential to be front tyre races, and if Dani can find what he needs, he may yet be able to make his whole MotoGP career winning one race in each season.

Eighth place went to Alex Rins. He was running sixth for much of the race, but was caught by Rossi and Pedrosa quite quickly at the end, indicating he ran out of medium rear tyre. It seems Rins ran into the same tyre wear issues that Suzuki teammate Iannone encountered throughout the year.

Johann Zarco showed what happens when you choose the soft tyre, but can’t manage it, as he came home down in ninth, despite a decent start from the Frenchman from sixth on the grid.

Alvaro Bautista managed to recover a top ten spot despite a difficult start where, like Pedrosa, he was beaten up in those initial stages. Alvaro continues to advertise himself fairly well, as he looks to seal himself a factory Ducati deal for the 2019 Superbike World Championship.

Avintia Ducati’s Tito Rabat looked to be having a strong race, running well inside the top ten for much of the 28 laps, but suffered a one-second-per-lap drop off with his soft rear tyre in the final five laps, in which he dropped from ninth to eleventh behind both Zarco and Bautista. Still, it was a strong weekend for Rabat, who seemingly didn’t need much on the electronic side to save his top ten spot.

The Austrian GP weekend was one to forget for Maverick Vinales. After his poor qualifying on Saturday – not helped by sensor issues – he could only manage twelfth place in the race. He made his typical poor start, dropping to 16th in the first lap, but didn’t have his usual late race pace. This weekend, Vinales complained that it felt like his bike had no power in the opening stages of the race. It’s hard to justify, from the outside, why that would be the case, but anyway, Vinales will be looking to the private test for Yamaha in Misano before Silverstone as an opportunity to make some progress on the bike, but you have to wonder how much he believes he can actually find anything positive at all.

An off-track excursion in the middle of the race cost Andrea Iannone badly. After that, he set four laps which were some of the fastest of the race, but he couldn’t follow it up. The questions are being asked of Iannone again – since he signed for Aprilia for the 2019 and 2020 seasons, his form has completely disappeared. This performance didn’t do much to help this situation.

A stunning start put Bradley Smith up into the top ten at the start, but by the end of the race the British rider had dropped back to 14th. Nonetheless, a good weekend at home for KTM, picking up some more valuable World Championship points.

The final point went to Takaaki Nakagami, who was the top rookie in fifteenth, 0.9 seconds clear of Hafizh Syahrin.

Aleix Espargaro could only manage seventeenth place on the Aprilia, just ahead of a struggling Jack Miller; then Franco Morbidelli was nineteenth whilst a somewhat disgruntled Scott Redding rounded out the top twenty, a performance and result which left him very open about his opinion on the workings of the team, and also the bike.

Karel Abraham came home in twenty-first place, whilst Tom Luthi was the final finisher in 22nd.

Xavier Simeon had enjoyed his best weekend in MotoGP until lap nine of the race, when he became the only crasher of the race.