Category: Formula One

On Sunday afternoon, Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton will take to Abu Dhabi’s Yas Marina Circuit to decide which of them will take home the honour of being 2016 Formula One World Drivers’ Champion.

The matter of who has the real advantage heading into the final round is still very much in question. Points-wise, the ball is clearly in Rosberg’s court – at twelve points clear, all the German has to do to prevail overall is finish on the podium, regardless of whether his teammate wins the race.

But with Hamilton on a three-race win streak and the Red Bulls an ever larger presence in Mercedes’ mirrors, Rosberg’s lead is hardly the most comfortable of margins for a driver closing on his first title. So, in search of a little clarity, we’ve taken a look back at the Mercedes duo’s respective results books, to see how they’ve fared in Abu Dhabi in the past – and what indications that might give for Sunday.

In terms of raw statistics, a direct comparison between Hamilton and Rosberg is impossible – after all, for four of F1’s seven years racing in Abu Dhabi, Hamilton was driving race-winning McLarens whilst Rosberg fought in the midfield pack with Williams and Mercedes.

As such, it’s not too surprising that Hamilton’s results during this time considerably eclipse Rosberg’s, with one win, one second place, and two mechanical retirements from pole position. Even without a like-for-like comparison, such a scorecard would suggest that Rosberg would have to have an exceptional affinity for the Yas Marina Circuit to even come close to Hamilton.

And yet, on comparing results from their time together at Mercedes, it begins to seem as if Rosberg might actually have the edge over Hamilton in Abu Dhabi.

The pool of examples is admittedly small – the 2014 race, in which Hamilton won whilst Rosberg was confined to fourteenth after his ERS failed, can hardly be called representative – but there is nevertheless a trend in the German’s favour in recent years.

Even with his two poles in 2009 and 2012, Hamilton has been trumped by Rosberg in every Abu Dhabi Grand Prix qualifying since he joined Mercedes: in 2013, Rosberg headed Hamilton on the second row of the grid, and in 2014 and 2015 beat the Briton to pole by the best part of half a second each time.

At a track where overtaking opportunities are already at a premium, a qualifying record like that should already be enough to give Hamilton pause for thought this weekend – not to mention the fact that Rosberg also came out ahead in each of those races (bar 2014), coming home third to Hamilton’s seventh in 2013, then taking the chequered flag with an eight second gap to his teammate last year.

Of course, the trend of past results means very little when it comes down to race day itself – take Hamilton defying Rosberg to take his first Brazilian Grand Prix victory last time out, for example. But even though Hamilton is more than capable of outqualifying and outracing his teammate in Abu Dhabi this weekend, it’s hard to ignore that, with both the lead in the standings and his track record at Yas Marina, it will take something remarkable to deny Nico Rosberg his first World Championship on Sunday.

Despite missing out on podium chances for both cars, Force India has branded its Brazilian Grand Prix performance “a victory” after a strong double points finish all but seals their fourth place in the Constructors’ Championship.

With Sergio Pérez finishing just off the podium in fourth and Nico Hülkenberg recovering from a puncture to seventh, Force India leaves Interlagos with twenty-seven points in hand over rivals Williams, who failed to score after Felipe Massa retired and Valtteri Bottas finished down in eleventh.

That means that, with just one round remaining, Williams would have to finish second and fifth at least in Abu Dhabi to end the year in fourth, even if Force India fail to score. If the latter finishes the final round in seventh and eighth – as the fourth fastest team ought to – Williams would have to win the race and get their second car on the podium as well.

Force India’s deputy team principal Bob Fernley said that carrying such a lead into the final round is “a fantastic reward for an excellent job by the entire team.

“With such difficult track conditions, just getting both cars to the finish [in Brazil] is a victory and to have both in the points takes us a good step closer to achieving fourth place in the Constructors’ Championship.”
James Matthews

Although Formula One’s annual trip through the Americas appears to have restored Lewis Hamilton to the crushing form he enjoyed in the summer, the Briton arrives at the penultimate round of the championship in Sao Paulo with something of a mountain to climb if he is to win his fourth World Drivers’ Championship.

The defending champion utterly dominated the last round in Mexico and crossed the line with a full eight seconds in hand, in a race Nico Rosberg needed himself to win and Hamilton effectively not to finish if the German was to wrap up the championship early.

But by maintaining a crucial second place behind Hamilton Mexico, Rosberg has ensured that victory in this weekend’s Brazilian Grand Prix will be enough to make him Formula One’s 33rd World Champion, regardless of where Hamilton finishes behind him. Such is his points margin that even if Mercedes has a disastrous race, Rosberg could finish as low as seventh and still become champion, providing Hamilton does not score at all.

“[Nico] has it in his hands,” Toto Wolff said ahead of the race. “All this talk of just needing to finish second in order to make it to the end is over. If he wins the race in Brazil, he is champion.”

Wolff also added that “Lewis knows what he must do to keep his title hopes alive. He will never back down and that’s what makes him one of the great ones.”

But not only will Hamilton have to finish ahead of Rosberg on Sunday if he plans to take the title fight on to Abu Dhabi, he will have to do so at a circuit that has never been a particular favourite of his.

Besides Baku, Interlagos remains the only track on the current calendar at which Hamilton has never won, and arguably the only one in which he has been consistently outshone by Rosberg in their time together – Rosberg has comfortably beaten Hamilton to victory in each of the last two Brazilian Grands Prix, and in 2013 finished fifth where the Briton could only manage ninth.

Outside of the Mercedes turbo era, Hamilton’s only other visit to the Sao Paulo podium was back in 2009 with McLaren.

Nevertheless, the past does not always translate into the future in Formula One, and while Nico Rosberg may look to have every advantage in Brazil, you can never afford to discount a driver like Lewis Hamilton when the margins start to narrow.

James Matthews